2022-10-06 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

by | Oct 7, 2022 | Resources | 7 comments

2022-10-06 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

# Tickers of Interest – TL;DR

**Gamma Max Cross**

* [BSX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BSX) 11/18 41P for $1.75 or less
* [ABEV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ABEV) 11/18 3P for $0.10 or less
* [FSM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FSM) 11/18 2.5P for $0.10 or less
* [TCOM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TCOM) 11/18 28P for $1.90 or less
* [AVTR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AVTR) 11/18 28P for $1.25 or less

**Delta Neutral Cross**

* [PYPL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PYPL) 11/18 92.5P for $6.05 or less
* [NEM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NEM) 11/18 42.5P for $1.70 or less
* [M](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#M) 11/18 17P for $1.15 or less
* [ZS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#ZS) 11/18 175P for $11.45 or less
* [EXPE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EXPE) 11/18 100P for $7.55 or less

# Trading Thesis – Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks–notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It’s the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

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# Notes – Something to give you a new wrinkle

* If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
* Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
* I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I’ll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
* The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

# FAQ – Because others have already asked.

* These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
* No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
* Are you entering all these plays?
* No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.



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2022-10-06 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)


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7 Comments

  1. ahminus

    Don’t take puts on NEM. Gold and silver could run hard soon.

  2. Apprehensive-Tour-33

    Gamma. The hulk. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)

  3. Loud-Consequence5868

    Omg this is sooo confusing.

  4. Grape_Ape1980

    ABEV has an ADR doesn’t that affect put option?

  5. International_Tap656

    Are these all seller options ?

  6. IndependentLettuce50

    Thanks Hardy. You always the best tasting crayons!

  7. Razieljstrat

    I assume AVTR is actually a 21$ strike price.

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