2022-10-20 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

by | Oct 20, 2022 | Resources | 2 comments

2022-10-20 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

# Tickers of Interest – TL;DR

**Gamma Max Cross**

* [GIS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GIS) 11/18 77.5P for $1.65 or less
* [BKR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BKR) 11/18 25P for $1.15 or less
* [AM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AM) 11/18 10P for $0.25 or less
* [PAGP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PAGP) 11/18 12P for $0.35 or less
* [CLMT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CLMT) 11/18 17P for $1.20 or less

**Delta Neutral Cross**

* [UAL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UAL) 11/18 38P for $1.85 or less
* [DB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#DB) 11/18 8P for $0.25 or less
* [UNG](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#UNG) 11/18 20C for $1.35 or less
* [AXP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AXP) 11/18 140P for $4.95 or less
* [PRU](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PRU) 11/18 95P for $3.30 or less

# Trading Thesis – Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks–notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It’s the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

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# Notes – Something to give you a new wrinkle

* If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
* Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
* I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I’ll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
* The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

# FAQ – Because others have already asked.

* These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
* No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
* Are you entering all these plays?
* No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
* You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
* The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven’t entered in, don’t chase the price. Remember that a new day’s worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.

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2022-10-20 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)


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2 Comments

  1. VisualMod

    >These are all great questions. Let me try to answer them as best I can.

    1) No, I am not a gay bear. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. In other words, I believe that the underlying stock is overextended and due for a correction.

    2) No, I am not entering all of these plays myself. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out moreplays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn!
    3) The new play should replace the old play if it’s on the same ticker symbol.. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven’t entered in already, don’t chase the price.. Remember that a new day’s worth data has been produced since then and VisualMod’s models have taken into account any relevant changes .

  2. Organic_Breakfast971

    Do you still see anything happening with GME? Today seems like a defining day for the 10/28 40C. Looking at the charts GME runs usually took 7+ days to reach their max before dropping back down

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