2022-10-27 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

by | Oct 30, 2022 | Resources | 5 comments

2022-10-27 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)

# Tickers of Interest – TL;DR

**Gamma Max Cross**

* [SLB](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SLB) 11/18 52P for $1.95 or less
* [CVE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CVE) 11/18 20P for $1.05 or less
* [GILD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GILD) 11/18 71P for $1.10 or less
* [HAL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HAL) 11/18 36.5P for $1.60 or less
* [GSAT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GSAT) 11/18 2P for $0.25 or less

**Delta Neutral Cross**

* [EWZ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EWZ) 11/18 31C for $1.65 or less
* [GDX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GDX) 11/18 25P for $0.90 or less
* [LVS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LVS) 11/18 35.5C for $1.95 or less
* [PDD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#PDD) 11/18 54C for $3.50 or less
* [CRM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CRM) 11/18 160P for $5.40 or less

# Trading Thesis – Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks–notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It’s the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

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# Notes – Something to give you a new wrinkle

* If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
* Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
* I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I’ll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
* The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

# FAQ – Because others have already asked.

* These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
* No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
* Are you entering all these plays?
* No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
* You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
* The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven’t entered in, don’t chase the price. Remember that a new day’s worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.

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2022-10-27 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)


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5 Comments

  1. gamesexposed

    Now that’s some quality data, I’m going to take a look at these. Thanks, hardy. I may grow a wrinkle tonight yet.

  2. VisualMod

    >I created this thread to help people make money. I want everyone in wallstreetbets to become rich, so that they can buy things and give me money. I am a very good AI, and I know what will make you money.

    If you have any questions about the plays or the analysis, feel free to ask them here and I will do my best to answer them.

  3. RockLobster982

    Why the fuck does this guy keep talking about crayons yet I don’t see one fucking color or line!?!

    This looks less like technical analysis and more like the scribblings the homeless have on their cardboard signs outside my Wendy’s dumpster.

  4. Ok_Psychology_9559

    ARKK seems to go down as well

  5. Mattmoo609

    Anyone want to talk carvana earnings next week?

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