Hello fellow regards. I am also regarded, and have a regarded DD for you which will probably blowup my account, or drop off a dumptruck of lambos at my ~~house,~~ ~~apartment~~, tent under the bridge.
A simple DD from a simple WSBer
WING currently has the following out of whack fundamentals
**P/E:** 108
**PEG:** 7.2
We’re in/entering/fully prolapsed recession, and the poors will buy less wings as budgets become tighter.
**Competition:** Buffalo Wild Wings is already a an established company in this space, wingstop is not doing anything better.
**Crappy Astrology Lines:**
[It has fallen out of the trading channel between \~164 to \~144](https://preview.redd.it/p6mbocdzlo8a1.png?width=2786&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd1fdb7b28e5df022e6f7ed16d09fcbe581811d0)
[Or I’m wrong and we’re primed for a bounce, but also …](https://preview.redd.it/4vu9l0r3mo8a1.png?width=2784&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d27e48c48b03253e8b19d4bd6c3cff238e33449)
[There is this gap that wants filled down to \~135](https://preview.redd.it/arhywycqmo8a1.png?width=2778&format=png&auto=webp&s=282cbb988d2c3742b8128c76780b45da0f79de69)
Short Term price target \~$135
Go for that recession mission accomplished target of \~$72
Current position, which I will continue to build. No puts, cause fuck theta. Might enter some credit call spreads, but I prefer this risk profile atm
[MONEY, OMG](https://preview.redd.it/eksdnkufno8a1.png?width=1884&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b31898944dfdd26fcba41bffbd60aa40353fd77)
Be a vulture, not a chicken.
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My only DD for wings.
I used to buy 12 for $8
12 wings are like $18 since COVID started
PUTS ON WINGSTOP
Can’t stop won’t stop WingStop
I also don’t know about you guys, but the quality of WS meals has gone down considerably in my experience.
Why on earth does a place that sells wings have a PE ratio > 100? I mean its a boring business, not a tech stock!
high P/E, high PEG is exactly what you want for a growth company in the 4 billion range.
​
HOWEVER, you don’t want that into a recession.
I can’t believe I’m saying this… but I agree with you. Valuation makes no sense.
Wingstop Ranch > Buffalo Wild Wings Ranch, that gives me all I need to know about the two companies.
>Thank you for your DD. I have noted it and will keep an eye on WING stock.
wingstop is like 98% owned by institutions which is why its so high. its worth 18 dollars. dont buy puts you will get fucked. this stock and CMG are heavily manipulated and only owned by institutions.
I did a deep dive into the stock and the fundamentals are absolutely God awful. more fucking debt than revenue in a year lmao or something crazy like that
Oh look, it’s time for the semi-annual short wingstop post. Everyone just stopped reading this when you said buffalo wild wings was comparable.
Listen here son, im thee ghayest Ber of them all. I’ll fuck up anything with some puts. I like the thesis but you may be a little early on this one. They’re paying a dividend, no dilution, growing sales. it’s over priced but not enough to drop 50% without some serious shitting of bed
Wings were $160 a case and prices rose 30%, now they are $60 a case. Imagine your profit margin on your main product going up 100%. Wings are great for take out and the younger folks love to spend money on shit food Togo or overpriced delivery to put in their air fryer.
Tldr
Tread lightly because they will print more money for awhile on the bottom line. Even if they lost half of their guests they would essentially still make a similar profit.
Rick Ross gotta stop keeping all the chicken for himself
Can’t stop, won’t stop, wingstop
Can we collectively short Wingstop into hell and give the funds as charity to revive Hooters?
Sorry if this is annoying, but I’d be curious on your thoughts u/MikasalsTheBestWaifu ?
yoooo this has been one of the fucking tickers i’ve been meaning to short since covid
thanks for reminding me
fuck i missed every other thing CVNA, TSLA (i shorted early and stopped), ALGN, the list goes on and on
The wingstop in my town is absolutely dead everytime I go past it.
Wingstop thinks they’re chipotle. Send them to the gulag fellow regards
How did this company go public? Their food is dreadful. I guess their service is to make my stomach upset.
I ate there once. Got some bread and asked for butter. They gave me a bowl of butter flavored cooking oil. Fuck that place
Good job op
no
I told you
That we could fly
‘Cause we all have wings
But some of us don’t know why
Did you just compare wing stop to Icarus?
And those premiums are out of control. Do you know how many 0dte spy puts I’d miss out on.
I love wings but they’re tripping if they think I’m paying nearly $2 per wing, it takes 30+ to fill my fat ass
Autist here can you explain your position? What’s the -60
I appreciate the thought and time and effort for the financial aspect of what you posted.
Thank you as it made me think of hospitality which I don’t tend to take positions in via public markets, but it isn’t a bad time to prospect against some (as you have concluded)
But….
Does due diligence not include non-market data, factual sector catalysts here ?
First no mention of the entire cattle slaughter bc feed costs on a McD post yesterday
Now a now a goddamn chicken Wangz restaurant post without mention of the biggest lever ever going on to their niche. Avian flu has called puts on the yardbird supply all over with 30million plus 2winged foul friends being burnt bc inedible safely.
This is just short term. There’s a lot to think of negatively long term for this industry as well sadly.
Ima stop you right there. Do you understand what inelastic demand is? The consumer is more likely to wrack up more credit card debt than change their eating habits. If anything the people will spend more as they’ll need that satisfaction. However if their P/e really is 108 that’s insanely high. Demand will be higher but lol if that stock price isn’t inflated at a 108 p/e idk what is.
Wing stop is also a trash restaurant
Wingstop now has 5X the PE ratio of Tesla.
Whoa whoa whoa. What does BWW do well?
I see $20 chicken nuggets that are tossed in sauce. I see these nuggets taking 50 minutes to make even though the restaurant only sells the same nuggets tossed in different sauces.
I see the worst service I’ve ever had at any restsrsunt while 69 employees with jerseys stand around doing absolutely nothing.
I see myself going to BWW because I do want to eat those nuggets now. God dammit.
Now what’s the play? It’s at $136 it’s near your target
I’m looking to short the stock with with 25k
What is the best strategy!?
So far so good. Now have ATM puts expiring March.
It should drop a bit more I think