CalSTRS CIO Christopher Ailman says the US is heading for a recession. He also talks about his outlook for inflation, the Fed and volatility. He’s on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.”
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It is no secret that Ailman, the former chief investment officer at CalSTRS, is known for his expertise in predicting economic downturns. In recent months, Ailman has been sounding the alarm, warning that the United States and global economies are heading for a recession in the near future.
Ailman is not alone in his predictions. Many economists and analysts have been warning about the possibility of a recession for some time. However, Ailman’s insights carry particular weight due to his impressive track record of predicting past recessions.
So why does Ailman believe a recession is imminent? According to him, there are a few key indicators that point to an economic slowdown. One major concern is the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. As tariffs and other trade barriers continue to increase, it is likely that businesses will be negatively impacted, leading to decreased investment and ultimately slower economic growth.
Another factor contributing to Ailman’s concerns is the current state of the global economy. Many countries are experiencing lower levels of growth, and geopolitical tensions have created a sense of instability that could easily spill over into the financial markets.
Finally, Ailman believes that the United States is due for a recession simply because the current economic expansion has been going on for so long. The U.S. has not experienced a recession since 2008, and given that the average expansion cycle lasts for around 7 years, many economists believe that a downturn is long overdue.
Of course, predicting a recession is not an exact science, and there are always factors that could cause unexpected changes in the economy. Ailman himself has acknowledged that there are always unknown risks that could derail the economy. However, based on his analysis of current trends and historical patterns, he feels that it is only a matter of time before a recession hits.
So what does this mean for the average person? If Ailman is correct, a recession could lead to job losses, decreased income, and other economic hardships. However, it is important to remember that not all industries or regions will be impacted equally. Some sectors may see growth even as others decline, and certain areas of the country may fare better than others.
For investors, a recession can be a particularly challenging time. Stocks and other investment vehicles may lose value, making it difficult to achieve desired returns. However, there are strategies that can help mitigate risk during a downturn, such as investing in defensive sectors or holding onto cash reserves.
Regardless of whether Ailman’s predictions come true, it is always wise to stay informed about economic trends and to be prepared for the unexpected. By staying vigilant and taking proactive steps where possible, individuals and businesses can weather economic storms and emerge stronger on the other side.
Uh news flash be have been in a recession sense Feb. We arnt going into one, we are in one.
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So called experts have been talking about recession for 3-4 years. Tired of hearing about it and media parrots it.
My portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. plus i don't do that by myself. I copy trades from US regulated broker Tobias Meylan He’s quite the genius in diversification and trading. just like you can copy trades at etoro. my portfolio has grown at a tremendous pace. unlike i can say for my IRA which has just been trudging along. my portfolio just mirrors what he trades and not just on some particular industries of my choosing.
Does anyone care that inflation is affecting everyday people? It's not just about the stock market. A majority of average Americans don't even have stocks.
Yea a government made and enforced Covid
If only people wasn’t so greedy. How much financial pressure can you put on the public and expect growth.
There’s big disconnect between high rates and stock markets. Markets keep rising in spite of high rates. This is crazy.
We'll all know in the next 6months so get ready and be prepared just in case..
Some sectors of the economy dependent on discretionary income spending by the lower 90% will never recover. Restaurants, travel, leisure, vacations,tourism, sporting events, etc
You will see right now the markets will go up, a day before Fed speech there will be a major sell off. Investors are racing time to get their lost gains. And it looks like a race against time.
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Poradi neznam nieden straski jazik a I hezaboravev I. Jytype. Tie dvacata
Pari nemam za da sə pridyzyvam göl sym. Treba da vnesi tə vo garatirana bakap
recession has already been here since spring of 2022. this is a depression
Large sectors of the economy are monopolistically controlled pricing where the big stake holders have artificially kept values higher than normal and those companies have hollow demand which means when those firms get into trouble entire market segments drop fast. These companies need to de-leverage out of their positions fast or face bankruptcies in the next two years.
if everyone saying recession, means there will be none
Stocks is no longer in sync with the economy
When the price for energy food, commodities and other goods and services rise the entire economy is affected.Rising price known as inflation
They are not going to unemployment, they are all going to social security and retirement!
Terminal fed rate 5.5 to 6%. 75,50,25,25, rates remain high throughout 2023 possibly into 2024. No pivot until 2024. Much more pain yet to come.
Nope