According to Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, the yield curve signals no recession until the year 2025.

by | Apr 27, 2023 | Recession News | 17 comments

According to Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, the yield curve signals no recession until the year 2025.




Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist, joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss bond market recession signals. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:

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According to Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub, a prominent Wall Street strategist, the yield curve indicators suggest that there will be no recession in the United States before 2025. Golub’s comments are a reminder that despite the recent deceleration in economic growth and some slowdown in global trade activity, there is still a lot of positive momentum building in the economy.

For those unfamiliar with the yield curve, it is simply a graph that shows the yields on various U.S. Treasury securities plotted against their maturities. The yield curve is a crucial indicator of the overall health of the economy and has been used as a forecasting tool for decades. Typically, long-term yields are higher than short-term yields, which is known as a “normal” yield curve. This reflects the fact that investors demand a higher return for lending their money over a longer period.

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However, when short-term yields surpass longer-term yields, which is known as an “inverted” yield curve, it can indicate a recession is coming. That’s because it signals that investors are more worried about the near-term future than the long-term. Several studies have shown that yield curve inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1950, albeit with some false signals along the way.

But despite yield curve inversions looking like a warning sign, Golub believes that there’s no need to panic just yet. In his words, “There’s no sign of a looming recession, and our models indicate that one is unlikely to occur before at least 2025.” He cites a number of factors that will support the economy in the coming years, including historically low unemployment, rising wages, robust consumer spending, and a strong housing market.

Of course, there are risks on the horizon, such as mounting trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and the possibility of a global slowdown. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of headwinds throughout this year, and it’s entirely possible that it could continue to do so until 2025 and beyond.

All in all, the yield curve provides a useful warning sign of a recession. However, as Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub has pointed out, it’s not the perfect forecasting tool, and economic conditions can change quickly. Right now, the curve is not giving any clear signals of an imminent downturn. That’s good news for investors, individuals, and policymakers alike, as the prospect of a recession would leave everyone on edge. Instead, we can all look forward to a few more years of growth and prosperity.

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17 Comments

  1. You Are My Light

    Robert Kiyosaki said the next bank to collapse IS Credit Suisse. lol
    Soooo I would take this Golub guys words with a grain of salt…

  2. Marco

    you goddamn liars its all going belly up!! and they know it

  3. Phil H

    Makes sense that he is with Credit Suisse.

  4. urchi

    Can’t wait for this to age well

  5. Ziddi

    What i love about "analysts" is that if you listen to enough of them, you will likely learn nothing as they all contradict each other. lol

  6. BBA

    THis guy is in his LALALAND

  7. Kevin

    Fantasy land

  8. Paul Christopher Little

    Charts mean nothing. What happens to that chart if we go to war?

  9. Jean-Daniel Roch

    I worked for them for 15 years and evaluate I quit and move most valuable clients to Julius Baer Luxembourg.
    They try to sue me but they lost .
    Scamming clients for commission is misleading investors is the most common in all banks.

  10. Jason Edwads

    This dude in Feb of 2022 said to buy hand over fist… Please go look at the video, also go look at his ranking as a strategist. One of the worst out there.

  11. Heather 22

    We have a recession right after uninverting I believe. He could be right about it being later than originally thought. Yikes, shoot.

  12. STEPHAN FEIBISH

    Gee, the other guy this morning 🙂
    These are the notes I took.

    3s-10s inverted in October 2022

    average days till recession is 300

    would put us in 3rd or 4th quarter of 2023

  13. franklin roosevelt

    Credit suisse is on life support. Short it for tax free gain when its dead

  14. The North

    Immediate recession once student loans come due again. Biden’s FAKE economy won’t last

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