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LEARN ABOUT: Investing During Inflation

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a basket of goods and services that households buy. It is a critical indicator of inflation, as it allows policymakers to track changes in the cost of living for consumers. Recently, the Federal Reserve won a victory in its fight against inflation, as the latest CPI data came in below expectations.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 0.3% in August, which was slightly lower than the 0.4% increase economists had forecasted. This modest increase was driven by a 9.1% surge in used-car prices, while other categories such as food, housing, and clothing remained relatively stable. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI rose 5.3%, above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Despite the higher annual increase, Fed officials have been quick to dismiss any concerns of sustained inflation, citing supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and other transitional factors that are expected to abate over time. In fact, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank’s policy stance remains patient and accommodative, with a commitment to support the economy until its employment and inflation goals are achieved.

In response to the latest CPI data, stock markets rallied, as investors welcomed the news that inflation pressures may be easing. This positive sentiment was also reflected in the bond market, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.28%, which is the lowest level since early August. Lower bond yields suggest that investors believe the Fed is likely to maintain its current policy stance, with some even expecting the central bank to delay its tapering plans.

Overall, the latest CPI data is a favorable sign for the Fed as it indicates that inflation has not surged as much as feared. While the year-over-year inflation rate is still elevated, it is expected to recede in the coming months, which will ease the pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. The Fed is likely to remain cautious in its outlook, as it continues to monitor the economy closely, and adjust its policy stance as needed.