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Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe are squaring off in the most high-profile election of the year this fall. What does the early vote data say about this race so far? I analyze.
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#Virginia #GlennYoungkin…(read more)
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A Youngkin Overperformance? Analyzing Virginia’s Early Vote Data
Virginia’s gubernatorial race has garnered national attention as Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin challenges the status quo in a state that has long been dominated by Democrats. As the election day looms, analysts are looking closely at the early vote data, which could provide crucial insights into the race’s dynamics and potential outcomes.
The early vote numbers indicate that Youngkin might be outperforming expectations in his bid for the governor’s office. Traditionally, Democrats have enjoyed a significant advantage in early voting, often referred to as the “blue shift.” However, this trend seems to be shifting in Virginia, raising questions about what it could mean for the 2021 election.
One of the key takeaways from the early vote data is the increase in Republican voter turnout compared to previous elections. Historically, Democrats have relied on strong early voting numbers to establish an early lead and maintain momentum throughout the election cycle. However, Republican enthusiasm appears to be surging this time around, as evidenced by the high turnout of conservative voters during the early voting period.
Moreover, the geography of early votes offers interesting insights. While Democrats typically rely on densely populated urban areas for their early voting advantage, Youngkin seems to be narrowing the gap in those regions. On the other hand, he also appears to be making considerable gains in suburban and rural areas, where Republican support tends to be stronger.
Youngkin’s focus on a range of issues, including education, public safety, and the economy, seems to be resonating with voters across the state, especially in suburban and rural communities. Many individuals feel that their concerns have been overlooked or dismissed by the Democratic-controlled state government, and Youngkin’s campaign promises to address those grievances have struck a chord with these voters.
Another factor contributing to Youngkin’s overperformance could be his ability to appeal to diverse coalitions within the Republican Party. His campaign has successfully united factions of the GOP, including establishment Republicans, Trump loyalists, and grassroots conservatives. This broad-based support has translated into increased voter enthusiasm and higher turnouts among Republican-leaning demographics.
However, it is important to note that the early vote data might not tell the complete story. Virginia is known for its high voter turnout, and much could still change before election day. Democrats retain a solid base of support in the state, and their ground game and mobilization efforts could help bridge any gaps in early voting numbers.
Furthermore, the impact of external factors, such as advertising campaigns, last-minute endorsements, or any unforeseen events, cannot be discounted. A single development can often shift the dynamics of an election, and it remains to be seen if any such event will arise in the final days before the vote.
In conclusion, the early vote data in Virginia’s gubernatorial race shows signs of a Youngkin overperformance. The surge in Republican voter turnout and Youngkin’s ability to expand his support base across demographics and geographic regions bode well for his chances. However, it is essential to approach these numbers with caution, as elections can be unpredictable and subject to various influencing factors. As November 2nd approaches, all eyes are on Virginia to see how these dynamics play out and ultimately determine the next governor of the Commonwealth.
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Yeeeeeeeeeeeees!
Yess
Youngkin will win cus he did win
McCauliff seems to think parents are stupid, so why would anyone who is a parent vote for him? He's a friend of the Clinton's (YUCK!) He's pro-abortion (SUPER YUCK)!
Red foreverrrrrrr
No more frauddddddddd
They will steal it it's what the liberals do
Terry will win he is leading the way. Visit more counties in Virginia yes
Voting for Terry yes I an
As someone who lives in Virginia if youngkin does win the left will go crazy
I am a Virginian. I am voting for Glenn Youngkin! He is absolutely great!
Emerson college poll released today shows McAuliffe leading by 1 point. That same poll 2-3 weeks ago had him leading by 4 or 5 points. No denying that it’s narrowing. I live in the suburbs of Richmond VA in chesterfield (a populous county just SW of Richmond city). I was born and raised here. That county used to be reliably red but much like the rest of the state in recent election cycles particularly in the past 5-6 years it’s becoming competitive with light shade of blue. I remember when Virginia was a red state, 2008 it completely flipped. 2009 to this date Bob McDonnell was the last Republican (LG AG, period) to win here statewide and did so in a landslide. He was a great governor. A little more establishment but was a good fit for the state. The state constitution does not allow governors to serve terms consecutively. McAuliffe won in 2013 narrowly during an Obama presidency only because he was running against a complete nutcase. Otherwise he would’ve packed his bags and run for an office in a different state. People here are really dumb enough to vote him in. He’s as sleazy as they come and he has run for office in multiple states and has lost every time. Pure political opportunist. And he’s a big Clinton donor and takes after Bill and Hillary. He promised jobs from a factory in Appomattox (a rural county outside of Lynchburg) but he sold out to the Chinese and the jobs shipped overseas and the factory closed.
Youngkin isn’t a perfect candidate but he’s a really good mainstream candidate and good for the state. I really do believe from following the race as closely as I have is that he has a legitimate shot. I know this sounds anecdotal but I’ve seen lots of youngkin signs even in the more liberal parts of Richmond around downtown (which is as liberal as they come). I think he can most certainly win. And McAuliffe saying that parents shouldn’t have a say in their child’s education is resonating with voters and causing some swing voters particularly in NOVA and Richmond area (henrico and chesterfield) to flip back to Youngkin. Youngkin has been running ads nonstop about this! I think Youngkin will carry Hampton roads, Chesapeake, VA beach, and areas outside of norfolk. A lot of military in that area. If he wins Chesapeake, so goes the state.
Republicans have had some close calls. Gillespie (who later ran for Governor in 2017) nearly upset Virginia’s golden boy mark Warner and lost by less than 1% in 2014 senate. He would’ve won had the GOP not pulled their resources from the state. I think this is the real deal here.
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I personally think nobody is watching debates. The race comes down to whether flash cards are found on the Friday after the election and dominion's vote counting efforts. In normal times, turnout would matter, but with drop boxes, turnout doesn't matter. Sorry for the negative view, but I think this is the realist view at this point.
If youngkin wins he’ll end up losing by a couple of percentage points because the voting systems are trash.
Glenn Young 2021. VA needs fresh blood. No more crooked Hillary and Bill's boy, Terry Crooked Mcauliffe
I always lie in polls no matter what they're about just to make things interesting.
I doubt hel win
Virginia needs a republican leader. I can’t figure out why minorities continue to vote for racist bigoted democrat governors.
Terry McAuliffe has Dominion vote counting ability.
You can tell how desperate McAuliffe is getting. He's LITERALLY trying to pander to Taylor Swift fans in order to save his election bid, LOL!
Virginia runs on Youngkin.
Some of the polls shown have such small sample sizes and all of those skew terry just thought people should know
NOTHING MATTERS IF THE DEMS CHEAT
I don't trust anything from 2020 after what happened with all the election rigging there's no way you can possibly trust this coming election God knows how long the Democrats have been rigging Virginia In fact I would of already seceded from the Democrats 6 months ago Every Red State and County needs to secede because they are going to California all of the US
There's no doubt that Dominion will win.
Democrats own this state now.
I’ve met Youngkin, he’s a really cool guy. Made me look like a midget, yes he’s really 6’7. I would be more than happy to call him Governor Youngkin.
TRUMP 2024
still waiting for dems to dump all there money into this race
Virginia definitely had fraud last election. My district the 7th took three weeks to call and the Dem won on “found votes”. We must be more vigilant with this one
Epstein didn’t kill himself.
I look at the comments sections of the debate videos and most of them are for youngken and against Mcullif. this is good but get out and vote vote vote
Hmm I wonder if this is in part a reflection of tighter voting scrutiny this year?
You should run for office one day yourself!!!
Funny stuff. The classic "horse race" question. Anyone who has ever hung around tracks knows there are a thousand ways of fixing a race. Same in elections. Mail in ballits. Ballot harvesting. Drop boxes. Automatic voting. Illegals voting. Dead people voting. Animal rights suffrage. Ghost voting. Bused-in voting. The list goes on. Pretty easy to predict who will win in Virginia (hint: it won't be the Republican…)
Glad you admitted GA is a swing state now and not a lost cause
Republicans are trying to vote early. I don't think he wins.
"The Red Eagle Live Shows talk about current events from an anti-establishment conservative perspective" . It has little creditability. Polls usually are not real bellweathers especially when McAuliffe whose has not excited his base (but did win the primary with 62% of the DEM vote) is under 50% in these polls having an edge in a Blue state. Take the UMW poll, "885 were registered voters and 528 were likely voters." Thirty-five percent on average of lively voters will not vote. The only thing that counts is at 7 pm on Nov.2nd. Youngkin pushed/is pushing big money to help GOP candidates across the state to win both the convention and now the GOP membership vote. To those who are very aware of the Garlyle Group over the last decade or more and were previous members of the Democratic Party-now Independents–he is not very different and of the same cloth as McAuliffe. The fact the NOVA Chamber of Congress failed to endorse Glenn as they did Gillespie or McAuliffe who received it in the past says much about the "ho hum" nature of this race in this off year election. The GOP lacks the structure to bring in the votes on the ground via Mail in balloting or in-person voting. Hispanics will come out GOP but nowhere near what they did for Trump. Dems strategically move this county by county as needed via numerous outside groups. The African American vote will not reach Trump levels but may increase some. Believe me, I am not crazy about either and probably will not vote but this one is not a barn murner for Independents and non-traditional GOP voters. Far more is unknown about this man from his "woke" church affilation to his 25 years bred in one of the most liberal, global oriented Wall Street firms in the world. Working with Hillary in 08 I always thought of him to run some day on the Democratic ticket? A candidate with more distinction from that of Youngkin would have brought out the southern part of the state which tend not to vote except in Presidential elections if at all. Right now, I predict that for Youngkin to win, every conservative registered voter from Spotsylvania County south would have to show up to vote early and/or in person in November in order to outweight the federal/state workers in the north. CRT which I strongly opposem masking children, and parental rights to education of their children will not outweight the factors of "women's equality" and "proc choice" that reign strong in the suburbs of Virginia. That's not going to happen as right now its traditional GOP voters heading to early vote which means less will vote GOP on election day. The state was set when the decision for a convention was made and the remanints of a very dysfunctional RPV still remains from the last decade of inexcusable failures. Add the distrust of election integrity very unresolved and you get the ingredients of a heavy struggle upwards for outreach needed by the GOP. Glenn is weak outside of county GOP party affiliations and you can see it in sizes of attendees at events throughout the state. This is not conjecture but based upon years of political experience in the Democratic party since JFK and a decade watching the GOP fail in letting this situation arise due to lack of competence and strategic political planning.
BTW, I failed to mention "The Hampton Roads Black Caucus is backing Youngkin." or so that is the rumor anyway
I started looking for jobs outside Va back in 2014 because I couldn't stand McAwful. Once an opportunity came available for me back in 2015. I left and I haven't looked back since even though my family still lives there; however, I'm routing for Youngkin not only because of my family, but because the Democrats has nothing but made Va a communist shithole
Whether we like it or not, Republicans have got to start playing the mail in game… it's time.
It only matters who counts the last votes. That would be McAuliffe.
Get ready for “we’re doing counting votes for the night” on election night.
Pray