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Market uncertainty has returned as bulls & bears remain locked in a fierce battle for control at the S&P 4000 line
Who is more likely to prevail?
And will 2023 provide a relief to investors over the beatings they took in 2022? Or will it prove to be another bruising year?
Researcher Jesse Felder has been tracking the macro & market action closely of late & we’re fortunate to have him return to the program.
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There’s no doubt that it’s a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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#recession #investing #fed
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss….(read more)
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Soft Landing? Hardly. Expect A Recession & Bear Market Return By Fall 2023 | Jesse Felder
With the stock market achieving record highs and the economy showing signs of recovery, many investors and economists are hopeful for a soft landing – a smooth and gradual slowdown of economic growth. However, one renowned investor and market commentator, Jesse Felder, holds a more pessimistic viewpoint. In his analysis, he predicts that a recession and subsequent bear market are on the horizon, with a potential return by fall 2023.
Felder, the founder of The Felder Report and an experienced market observer, argues that there are multiple indicators pointing towards an impending economic downturn. He highlights the alarming levels of debt accumulated by consumers, corporations, and governments alike. With interest rates starting to rise and debt servicing costs becoming increasingly burdensome, the ability to maintain sustainable economic expansion becomes questionable.
Furthermore, Felder examines the Federal Reserve’s role in the current market environment. He argues that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, including low interest rates and quantitative easing, has artificially inflated asset prices. As a result, stocks are overvalued, and a correction or even a crash seems imminent once the tide of easy money recedes.
Additionally, Felder points to the tenuous geopolitical landscape as another factor that could destabilize markets. From escalating trade disputes to geopolitical tensions and unpredictable policy decisions, global uncertainty hangs like a shadow over economic stability.
It is worth noting that Felder’s predictions have proven accurate in the past. When he suggested the Fed’s asset purchase program would eventually lead to inflationary pressures and a market downturn, he was met with skepticism. However, the subsequent years proved him right as inflation began to tick upwards, and eventually, the market experienced significant declines.
While Felder’s predictions may sound alarming for investors, it is essential to consider his viewpoints within the broader context of market conditions. While economic indicators do suggest a potential slowdown, it is challenging to precisely predict when and how severe it might be. Nevertheless, his analysis serves as a reminder to remain vigilant and cautious as we navigate through these uncertain times.
In conclusion, Jesse Felder’s forecast of a recession and bear market return by fall 2023 presents a contrarian view amidst optimism surrounding the economy and stock market today. His concerns about escalating debt levels, artificial asset price inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties carry weight and serve as a cautionary message to investors. As always, it is prudent to consider multiple perspectives and diversify portfolios accordingly to navigate the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.
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Looking at the positive side, every recession brings an equal opportunity in the financial market for those who are well-informed and prepared. I've come across stories of people accumulating up to seven-figure sums during such periods, and even achieving success in a favorable economy. As a baby boomer, I honestly believe that I would require guidance to attain such a significant amount for retirement. We should certainly find a way to benefit from this situation and make the most of it.
If they raise the rates, our us govt debt will increase! They can't do it.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
A dramatic tightening, but from zero on rates.
I would call it "Scar's pawhold" rather than "Long kiss goodnight", as it reminds me of The Lion Kings' scene where he takes Mufasa's paw and then RIPS it off the rock to his demise.
Adam you are the enemy of the state! Lol jk God bless
2008 on steroids
Thanks
This recession has been coming for years. Meanwhile the stock market keeps climbing.
Please give us opinion about S&P 500 prospects from now on till 2024.
We in the tropics are not familiar with the period FALL. Please state the month and year – to be exact.
The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.
It pays to listen to what Jesse Felder has to say!
This one is a twice-listen for me
Something systematic has already broken by having lowest interest rates in history and creating historically highest debt in history.
Do you think the reason the market hasn’t bottom or won’t bottom is because of the record amount of retail, and we refuse to sell?
Recession will look like 2001? – No, going to look like the great depression on steroids – 2 year long 90% crash – 35% unemployment – empty houses and shanty-towns everywhere. Gangs controlling the streets. This is what the political elite want so they can make people trade freedom for food, water, energy, and police protection. Election fraud now established and operational to prevent the serfs from changing anything.
the censors are coming! the censors are coming!
The narrative for months during the GFC was centered around what inning the downturn was entering and about any green shoots on the horizon?
CURRENTLY we are going into the bottom of the first inning down $2.3 TRILLION dollars in home team equity?
I HEAR the incomplete narrative around the Taylor rule and the guests highest belief in negative rates for longer and wonder if QT is even an after thought?
The idea that the bond debacle of 2022 was predicted by the destruction of the mortgage market and the loss of liquidity in the treasury note market has a technical feel? Having lost the need to hedge mortgages with notes?
WE ARE BACK TO MARK TO FANTASY ACCOUNTING ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT!
he's gotta be a bike racer if he was talking about "speed wobbles"
how do we know this hasn't already been priced in?
Such an interesting guest, thank you.
Always just down the road…right?
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Look you educated idiots, it's ALL about the 13 f's. Shares SOLD but not purchased yet. Crime on a galactic scale. The fed needs to raise rates to get ws to close their 2.4 quadrillion dollar derivatives chain, but when he raises the people cry. JAIL THE CRIMINALS. YOU CAN'T SELL STUFF YOU DON'T OWN
Excellent. Thanks.
The construction sector as a whole has been "underemployed" for several years. So even though residential construction has taken a solid hit, commercial and industrial and infrastructure construction still has a decent backlog.
Also the Amazons, Googles, etc of the world do not hire construction workers to build their buildings, they hire contractors and developers who hire construction workers to build their buildings. So even though the tech sector has been laying off workers, that's not construction workers. The data centers are still being built, but the distribution center construction has slowed considerably.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
great video; loved it
You are such a good interviewer Adam. Jesse was very interesting too.