Invesco global market strategist Brian Levitt gives his take on the state of the economy on ‘Barron’s Roundtable.’
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BREAKING: Recession News
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Is a Recession on the Horizon?
In recent months, there has been increasing speculation about the possibility of an upcoming recession. As the global economy experiences significant changes and uncertainty, it is natural for people to question whether we are approaching another challenging period. While economic forecasts are notoriously difficult to predict with absolute certainty, certain indicators suggest that a recession might be looming on the horizon.
One crucial factor contributing to this debate is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The outbreak of the virus in late 2019 has caused unprecedented disruptions to economies worldwide. Lockdown measures, travel restrictions, and supply chain disruptions have severely impacted businesses across various sectors. Massive layoffs and business closures have led to a significant increase in unemployment rates, which further weakens economic activity.
Moreover, the pandemic has resulted in decreased consumer spending. With people worried about job security and general economic uncertainty, many are cutting back on non-essential purchases, which in turn affects businesses and slows down economic growth. Reduced consumer spending also contributes to lower business revenues, making companies more cautious about expanding or investing in new ventures. This cycle of decreased consumer spending and cautious business behavior can potentially lead to a recessionary environment.
Furthermore, the global nature of the pandemic means that the effects are not contained within one country or region. With interconnected economies, a downturn in one area can quickly spread to others, amplifying the negative impact on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a significant contraction in economic growth for both advanced and emerging economies in 2020. This indicates that the effects of the pandemic will not be limited to a short-term crisis but may have long-lasting consequences that could potentially trigger a recession.
Another important factor in considering a potential recession is the overall state of financial markets. The stock market, for instance, can provide insights into the overall sentiment and confidence of investors. Sharp declines in stock prices can suggest that investors expect a recession in the near future. However, it is worth noting that the stock market is influenced by a myriad of variables, including geopolitical tensions and investor sentiment, which can sometimes be disconnected from the real economy.
In response to the economic challenges posed by the pandemic, central banks around the world have implemented aggressive monetary policies. Interest rates have been slashed, and governments have embarked on massive stimulus programs to inject liquidity into their respective economies. While these measures aim to mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic, they may not be sustainable in the long run. Inflationary pressures and ballooning government debts can create additional economic imbalances that increase the likelihood of a future recession.
It is important to acknowledge that economic forecasts are inherently uncertain. The full scope and duration of the pandemic’s impact are still unknown, and there is a possibility of unforeseen events that could affect the economy positively or negatively. Therefore, it is advisable to approach predictions of a recession with caution.
In conclusion, while economic indicators suggest that a recession might be on the horizon, it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty. The ongoing pandemic, decreased consumer spending, and global economic interconnectedness contribute to the speculation. However, it is essential to recognize that unforeseen events and policy measures can influence outcomes significantly. Monitoring economic trends and staying informed about government policies will be crucial in navigating the uncertain road ahead.
Not if u eat turds.
Recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.
Recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement.
Americans estimate they’ll need more than $1 million to retire comfortably — but most aren’t bullish about meeting that goal. Millennial workers predicted they will need to accumulate $1.3 million, according to a new retirement survey from investment manager Schroders. Just 29% expect to reach that target. I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I want to invest on the stock market, how do I achieve this?
All the economic indicators (every single one) are pointing towards a depression. This is another Wall Street schlep talking his bubkus.
More like a depression if this administration stays in power! We need Trump!
Job numbers up. Wages up. Accept the win folks. Things aren't nearly as bad as some people want to insist.
Enough of this crap, I've been hearing about the recession coming for a long time. Remember the Biden administration changed the definition of a recession by saying 2 quarters of negative growth is no longer a recession.
Are you kidding! We’ve been in a recession since the big guy was placed in Office! Coming Recession!!!!!
GOP tax cuts for the wealthy have never boosted the US economy. Between 1953 and the present, 10 of 11 recessions began under Republican presidents.
3 years of recession talk…it’s getting old
I thought we had already been in a recession under biden
You people are ridiculous. Is this really the question; “are we in a recession?” Yea we are in a recession by every definition we have used in the past. There is absolutely nothing new under the sun! Morons talking!!
Local boat manufacturer is only building 20 boats a week. They used to build 20 boats a day. We are in a recession.
Yes yes yes yes recession is coming especially in the north east
It won’t make it pass October! Two more rare hikes and student loan repayment and it’s over!
We're in a recession
Have we not seen Fox News parade economist after economist to predict a possible recession in the future for quite some time? I guess eventually they may be right. Fox is looking for a way to be right on something at some point in time. A broken clock used to be correct twice a day. Fox is just waiting for the hands of time to move. They had a good idea at the beginning but they abandoned that almost immediately. Remember “fair and balanced”? Fox doesn’t.
Yes.
These are fantastic takes, I feel exceptionally lucky I started investing in my early 30s and moved from an average lifestyle to earning over 34k each month through consistently compounding my income via assets to create more cash flow. I grew to a 7 figure well-diversified portfolio knowing where to focus having exposure to different prolific investments mainly savings account, stocks, bonds and high yield dividend funds. Forever grateful to my adviser Gregory Thomas Patchak. Passive income is mandatory for building long term wealth and ever since I met him, my life has taken a positive turn because of the passive income through his knowledge and ideas, which are crucial for succeeding against all odds in this area of online commerce. I'm happy that I was able to contact him earlier this year.
IT'S ALL JOE BIDEN'S FAULT
Aren’t we in a recession?
Is it? With Biden in charge? We'll have to go with a huge steam'n yes on that one, the economy sure isn't going well under Biden, neither is anything else for that matter.