Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist, joins ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ to talk interest rates, what the Federal Reserve is poised to do next and the possibility of a recession. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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A soft landing in the current economic climate is unlikely, according to Tony Dwyer, the Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity. Dwyer argues that the various factors at play in the global economy make it highly doubtful that we will experience a gentle descent into stability.
Dwyer’s skepticism stems from several reasons. First and foremost, the ongoing pandemic continues to pose significant challenges and uncertainties. Despite the roll-out of vaccines, new variants of the virus, such as the Delta variant, could potentially jeopardize the progress made towards recovery. As a result, Dwyer believes that any assumptions of a smooth economic transition are overly optimistic.
Furthermore, inflationary pressures have recently emerged as a significant concern. As economies rebound and demand outpaces supply, prices have been gradually increasing across various sectors. This has led to fears of sustained inflation, which could have detrimental effects on the economy, such as higher interest rates and diminished consumer purchasing power. Dwyer argues that this uncertainty makes a soft landing improbable.
Dwyer also points out the growing U.S. federal debt as an impediment to a gentle economic landing. The U.S. government has significantly increased spending to combat the effects of the pandemic, leading to a substantial accumulation of debt. As interest rates rise, servicing this debt becomes more burdensome, potentially hampering economic growth.
Moreover, global geopolitical tensions present another hurdle to a soft landing. Issues such as trade disputes, political unrest, and growing nationalism can disrupt international trade and stability. These factors, combined with the economic challenges mentioned earlier, could exacerbate any existing vulnerabilities and further hinder the possibility of a smooth transition.
Dwyer believes that rather than a soft landing, we are more likely to experience bouts of volatility and market corrections. Periods of market turbulence and economic contraction are natural occurrences within any economic cycle. And with the fragile state of the global economy, it is prudent to anticipate such eventualities rather than expecting a seamless recovery.
While Dwyer’s opinion may seem pessimistic, it is essential to acknowledge the potential risks and uncertainties that lie ahead. By recognizing these challenges, investors and policymakers can better prepare for potential disruptions and implement appropriate risk management strategies.
In conclusion, the Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Tony Dwyer, argues that a soft landing for the global economy is unlikely given the complexities of the current landscape. Ongoing pandemic concerns, inflationary pressures, mounting debt, and geopolitical tensions all contribute to the fragility of the economic recovery. Rather than anticipating a gentle descent, it is wise to brace for potential volatility and market corrections.
this fool and cnbc is always wrong
I love listening to idiots like this guy. In essence he is saying that it was great going on a heroin diet of low interest rates, but that its not fair that we now have to go cold turkey. "Give us more heroin or we will be sad". These people destroyed the world economy when they lowered interest to zero and nobody complained.
Hating on Tony is a little silly. He's been saying all year the data shows the Market would drop, he was right, He said the Fed staying Higher for Longer & a "soft landing" would keep the Fed in & raising rates & the Market would drop so Unless the Market is soaring wight now & not testing the Low for the year give the man his due & stop being stuck on what you wished had happened. Tom Lee said there would be a Summer rally, Tony said the data wasn't going to be helpful to the Bulls. He was spot on
Stock futures erased some earlier gains Thursday, after the consumer-price index showed that headline inflation remained firm, while core numbers decelerated from August. I’m thinking of investing $400k into my stock portfolio but unsure about it
NO SOFT LANDING !!!!!!!!! Powell in 2017-2019 cycle…. soft landing. Do you people remember in November 2018 the 30 year mortgage rate hit 5% as Powell hiked rates to 2.5% and guess what? He created a soft landing. Now can he repeat that? Time will tell
Not going to happen.
Watch out. The market historically continues dropping when the Fed begins cutting rates. The market bottoms later.
If you wanna be successful, you must take responsibility for your emotions, not place the blame on others. In addition to making you feel more guilty about your faults, pointing the finger at others will only serve to increase your sense of personal accountability. There's always a risk in every investment, yet people still invest and succeed. You must look outward if you wanna be successful in life…
So many areas already beaten up???? Only 12.5% of the S&P 500 is trading below the lows since Oct '22. And, the Russell small caps may be lower than the Oct '22 lows by a fraction of a percent, but if you look at the chart you'll see that it's just breaking out of a channel and about to plummet. Brilliant analysis Tony!
Index funds beat the active fund pickers this year big time due to AI and the magnificent seven and more people are going to switch to index funds. Index funds = smart money.
I ask: Is all westerlies and Europeans are slaves for Israel??
STONY
I just bought more stock today.
The current economic system contributes to instability, inflation, and poverty. A new Creative Society economic model is required, one that can guarantee everyone's stability, security, and a high standard of living. But unfortunately, whenever the leaders we depend on appear on TV to tell us not to panic that everything is under control, that is actually the time to fear the most! Saddening…
Frfr this guy looks like the diabolical madman plotting to take over the world
The only hard landing taking place is for the stock market. Anybody out of the stock market enjoys great times
Hard landing i agree BUT when fed cuts rates you RUN for the hills. When rates cut start that is catalyst for implosion not going up. Every major hard landing starts with the RATE CUT