This week, the self-moderating GoodFellows (Bill Whalen is on vacation) ponder why the much predicted recession hasn’t materialized—at least not yet. The Fellows also discuss the national security implications of a recession and why some economists may be a little too optimistic about economic conditions in the near future. Then, we check back in on the war in Ukraine and close with some thoughts about summer, featuring a cameo appearance from General Funkenstein himself.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit,
00:00 Introduction
1:28 Where did the recession go, is it just starting?
5:53 Banking Crisis
7:42 Other Geopolitical shocks + Inflation rates/numbers
14:18 What will happen to the interest rate hikes? + Labor Market
19:54 Housing and Debt + Capacity and Defense Budget
29:09 Ukraine joining Nato + Cold War II
41:51 How is it going with China + who is winning?
46:56 Lighting Round…(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
In recent years, the global economy has faced numerous challenges and setbacks, which have led many to wonder when the next recession will strike. The world is always on high alert, waiting for the economic dogs to start barking. However, the current situation seems to contradict this notion, as we are experiencing a recession that didn’t quite bark.
The term “recession” often evokes negative connotations, sending shivers down the spines of economists and the general public alike. Recession is traditionally associated with declining economic growth, high unemployment rates, and a general contraction in business activity. It is a period of economic turmoil that can have severe consequences for individuals, businesses, and even entire countries.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, it seemed like the perfect catalyst for a major recession. Lockdowns and travel restrictions resulted in businesses shuttering their doors, millions of people losing their jobs, and consumer spending grinding to a halt. Economists and experts around the world predicted a devastating recession that would take years to recover from.
However, in an unexpected turn of events, the global economy rebounded more quickly than anyone could have anticipated. Governments and central banks swiftly implemented large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, providing much-needed support to businesses and individuals. These measures softened the initial blow of the pandemic and helped prevent a complete economic collapse.
One key reason why this recession didn’t bark as loudly as anticipated was the resilience of some sectors and the rapid adaptation of businesses to the changing environment. While industries like travel, hospitality, and retail suffered significant blows, others, such as technology, e-commerce, and healthcare, flourished. Businesses quickly adopted new technologies and shifted their operations online, allowing them to continue operating and even thrive during the crisis.
Moreover, the unprecedented speed with which vaccines were developed and distributed helped restore confidence in the global economy. As vaccination rates increased, travel restrictions eased, and consumer spending rebounded. This trend not only aided the recovery but also prevented a prolonged recession.
Additionally, the rise of remote work proved to be a boon for many employees and companies. The shift to remote work allowed businesses to continue their operations with minimal disruption, while employees enjoyed a better work-life balance and saved time and money on commuting. This transition also opened opportunities for businesses to tap into a global talent pool, further unlocking economic growth potential.
While this recession might not have barked as loudly, it would be premature to dismiss its lasting impacts entirely. Inequality has been exacerbated, with marginalized groups disproportionately affected. Small businesses, especially those in the hardest-hit sectors, have faced immense challenges and closures. Governments worldwide now face the task of rebuilding and addressing these social and economic disparities.
Nevertheless, the fact that the recession didn’t bark as predicted offers a glimmer of hope for the future. It shows that the global economy has become more resilient and adaptable to rapidly changing circumstances. Lessons learned from this period can guide us in preparing for future challenges and developing more flexible economic frameworks.
As we navigate the uncertain economic landscape, it is crucial to remain vigilant. While this particular recession may not have barked as loudly, it should serve as a reminder that potential threats still loom on the horizon. Adapting to new technologies, embracing remote work, and creating inclusive economic policies will be crucial in ensuring that the global economy remains resilient and prepared for future challenges.
I feel better about the other two guy's impression of the economy over the economist.
How does inflation level at 2 with wage inflation close to 5 ,, answer,, it doesnt
The Chinese navy counts coastal patrol boats.
If you count the US coast guard and the blue water navy – then your figures would change.
Yes stocks may continue to rally, stocks are not the economy, I had 250 grand put aside waiting for the fed to stop raising rates. Now I want to get back into the markets, but the hike will continue and stocks are still climbing, I’m confused and happy to discuss.
Yes stocks may continue to rally, stocks are not the economy, I had 250k put aside waiting for the fed to stop raising rates. Now I want to get back into the markets, but the hike will continue and stocks are still climbing, I’m confused and happy to discuss.
Do you shit or sleep in that bed?
⭐
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
I was hoping HR would give the Beastie Boys a mention in his choice of summer song. One day…
Frack. Climate hoax, causing inflation with transportation cost. 2 dollars under Trump, 3 70 under Biden.
Even the high net worth and ultra high net worth people worry about money, just in different ways. There's no way around inflation. There's no way around recessions. Stop looking for a solution that doesn't exist and invest more money. Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?
Much enjoyed as usual, gentlemen. Thank you so much, and have a wonderful summer!
What a terrible bed-head.
Well, Leave it to Mcmaster to peddle the washington narratives. His take on Ukraine is simply out of touch, according to the majority of alternative media sources, returning legionaries, and a portion of mainstream media. I felt more authenticity with Johns points. I welcome opinions regardless.
I happily folow your podcast
Seeking the rare and rarer conservative
i.e. Team Normal Republicans
AKA RINOs
That will not waste too much time on cultural wars
And keep an eye out for the future of the ship and shape of State
Now
I understand that the military guy wants more weapons
And that fills an important role in society
But he does represent a specialised fringed interest
Like an environmental party or a more socialist one
Fringes, like on a rug serves an essential role
But taking control of government
Is just making a big hole in your carpet
And this goverment loses it's purpose
(Like not even bothering having an electoral platform)
The sugestion that America needs more ships
Because China is incrasing their fleet
Reflects just a very bad case of inflatable neighbor
America has a military budget that encompasses the budget of all 8 other major military
When America is a nuclear power
Which means as we found out recently with the Ukraine conflict
NOBODY is going to invade/attack a nuclear country
Actually, to please the rabid 2nd amendment proponent
The only weapon, ever that actually saved and is saving lives
Is the nuclear bomb
All others have a direct correlation between quantity and death
The 78 years of grossly inflated US military budget
Could and should have been used to improve American society
And international development
That would have improved life in quantity and quality
In the sense that less people would have been killed or left to die
And that actual development does, in time, decreases overpopulation
And tell the General
That all is new boats
Are going to be so easily sunk
By submersible suicide drones
It's the doughnut syndrome all over again
The future of "self defense" is going to be drones
Yeah, jobs look great, everybody’s got a job at Dollar General, Circle K, Walmart and just about any gas station you wanna work at. Things are looking up.
Hey guys, Kenny Loggins is at The Mountain Winery in Saratoga for two dates in October…….ideal weather on the Penninsula.
Are the Russian replacements really conscripts taken off the street. Or have they seen some sort of military service or training in the past?
Always thoughtful and entertaining.
The recession is like a phantom traffic jam.
Very compelling and undeniable trends, my only question is do these trends really apply in the context of the under or non developing world?
Is that a pair of swords over Ferguson's bed? That's tickling the dragon's tail.
Carol King
What is MC Masters on? His orobbing attacks can be mapped via satellite. The USA, having deserted Afghanistan the graveyard of Empires now chose to invade Russia during winter. It's how Empires die duringbthevwinter
Great show! Great summer music recommendations! Is Dr. Bill Whalen on summer holiday?
China is less bureaucratic? More efficient? Are you people live in reality. So you are saying CCP's autocratic system is more efficient than democracy, then God helps us all. Maybe you should all move to China since you have no inkling of idea about China. One small detail should explain about China's military. I have a friend who had to pay bride-to-be the recruiter so his son could join the military. That's readiness for you.
Great episode with multiple interesting facets
These "lefty's" are dangerous!
Put vacation chat on separate venue.
Again asking HR to run for president.
H.R. could the mutiny have just been a fake so that the Russians could move nukes into Belarus?
HR is diametrically opposite on the Ukraine war to other military guys like Scott Ritter and Douglas Macgregor. I would like to see them debate the status.
Beach Boys! Yes, Summertime!
We had negative economic growth in the first two quarters of 2022. Up until the Biden administration changed it that was the definition of a recession.
Recessions are an invention of Keynesian economic theory. They are essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. If not for pundits and politicians, they would not exist.
Far too early to tell re counter offenensive and Putin's demise.
Russian dead and wounded (permamently) are pretty close to the Ukranian estimates so im hoping the reseves are getting increasingly thin. The UA only really need to get to Tokmac for Crimea tetc o choke especially now the bridge is down again
The Labour Market was way too tight for high unemployment!!
Shoild have listened to Peter Zaihan 😉
Demographics are always the boss and the Baby Boomers aint comig back!
I love the GoodFellows, and eagerly await each new video. I wonder when they are going to talk about what is happening in Israel, and how dangerous it is for a country with non-conventional capabilities to potentially go into a civil war.
Im in over 50 minutes did I miss discussion about GDP ? How is it possible to talk about a Recission or the lack of one without a GDP discussion.
Comment for the algorithm
On the housing front, I think there is one thing people underestimate. That one thing is refinancing. I bought my house 25 years ago (paid it off twice, but that is another story). Just before that, rates had started to come down. On my previous house I think I refinanced once in six years, but many of mt neighbors were refinancing annually. So, as was pointed out, the current rates are not bad historically (and I mean a longer history than the last 20 years) AND, as pointed out, unemployment is very low. In the early 1980s the first two houses were lease/purchase deals. I didn't pull the trigger on either of those, but there were personal reasons for that. The main reason was that the rates were about 18%.
Actually, in the early 1990s when I moved to the Midwest we were in the midst of a "real" recession with high unemployment. I looked at 200 homes in the city (outside of Chicago) and took notes on 60. Then my wife found a FSBO which we bought.
Neil… what’s with the amost empty bookcase?
How could there be any talk of summer music without mentioning this top hit! My summer tune for summer 2023, the best summer ever!
https://youtu.be/TQJNh1pNt2U
As Always, Such a pleasure to listen to the Good Fellows.
Gaurav, India
I'm not an economist. But I don't think one has to be in order to recognize the looming threat of an upward-spiralling national debt. It seems to me the most pressing national-security problem the United States faces…and hardly anyone is talking about it. Specifically, that break-point where interest payments to service that debt starts to exceed defense spending, but also the larger problem of those burgeoning non-discretionary payments taking an ever-larger bite out of *everything*. Philosophically I'm very much a limited-government, low-taxes/spending, etc etc kind of guy, but as a practical matter I see no way we can lower taxes…or even maintain current taxation levels…until something is done about deficit spending on a yearly basis and addressing the national debt on a long-term basis. I would actually favor a tax hike IF it was presented as part of a credible, coherent plan to balance the budget and start paying down some of the principal, and IF I had any confidence whatsoever that current and future politicians (regardless of party) would hold to such a plan. I'm skeptical that such would be the case.