Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss the Fed, where he sees rates moving and his call for the market in 2023. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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BREAKING: Recession News
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As the market continues to experience ups and downs, many investors are questioning if we are heading towards a bear market. Julian Emanuel, the chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, has stated that history shows no bear market has ever bottomed before a recession.
Emanuel analyzed data dating back to 1932 and found that in every case, there was a recession that followed a bear market bottom. He explains that bear markets typically occur in anticipation of a recession, as investors worry about the future health of the economy.
In the current economic climate, there are concerns about a potential recession stemming from the ongoing trade war with China, slowing global growth, and geopolitical tensions. These worries have led to increased volatility in the stock market, with dramatic swings occurring on a daily basis.
However, Emanuel notes that there are still many positive signs in the economy that suggest we are not yet headed towards a recession. These include low unemployment, strong consumer spending, and a robust housing market.
Despite these indicators, there are still reasons for concern. The inverted yield curve – where short-term borrowing rates are higher than long-term ones – is seen by many as a reliable predictor of an upcoming recession. This occurred earlier this year and has not yet corrected itself.
Emanuel advises investors to stay cautious in this current market environment. He suggests that they focus on companies with strong fundamentals and avoid those that are heavily indebted. Additionally, investors should keep a close eye on economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates, which can all impact the health of the market.
In conclusion, while there are worries about a potential bear market, history shows that it is unlikely for one to occur without a recession following. Investors should remain cautious and vigilant in these uncertain times and continue to monitor the economic landscape for signs of a potential downturn.
We are currently in the jaws of the worst bear markets I have seen, the average stock has been cut in half, and the only way to make money this year has been to either short or to trade long in very short time frames. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my dipping $117k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
$SPY heading sub $300
New lows coming
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Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
So no recession
Well, here we have different view on the actual situation:
https://youtu.be/eEry2VsVUvw
Julian is talking out both sides of his mouth. Strongly Agree we have not seen a bottom still in the market. Agree we are headed into a RECESSION but more severe than you think. No mention that not only is U.S. going into a recession but this is going to be global. Julian is wishful thinking about Fed letting it's foot up on the pedal any time soon. Fed is committed to bring down inflation and they will need to continue to raise thru 2023. Unemployment will kick in this year which will crush the consumer. Add to this Russian war wildcard, housing bubble, crypto scandals, etc,etc,and etc. To think stocks can perform well in this environment is delusional. FACT: THE MARKET HAS NEVER I REPEAT NEVER FOUND A BOTTOM WHILE THE FED IS TIGHTENING. THIS MARKET IS GOING MUCH LOWER.
<I've been unsure about the market due to volatility, at the same time I still feel it's the right time to make profit cos of the price decrease, heard someone speaking of making over $500k since the lockdown and I'm driven to ask what techniques/skillset is needed to achieve this>.
It all depends on the knowledge and strategies employed, but I've seen people make seven-figure profits in declining markets just as easily as they do in rising ones. There is no denying that some people have benefited significantly from the recession and crisis.
Markets always bottom about 6 months before the economy does.
I vote for fat , stupid economists who say we need to lose our jobs, that THEY should lose there job to help stop inflation…I call them stupid because if people lose their job in a recession, and recessions are bad then so is losing your job… But they think losing jobs is great. haha Thats stupid, and a contradiction. Even Art laffer said, you don't cure the disease by killing the horse.. Who buys the biggest ticket items besides rich fat economists and people in public eye , not people who are trying to pay the monthly bills living in small apartments .. Oh well this is CNBC what do you expect. “Through his cunning He shall cause deceit to prosper under his rule; And he shall exalt himself in his heart. He shall destroy many in their prosperity". Daniel 8:25
Agreed, except for inflation coming down to 3% in 2023.
Invest in stocks is a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in stocks, it's worth it!
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
I feel sad that even though I am investing, I don't have the brain power to dig through how each company is doing, is this a good time to buy stocks or not, my reserve of $450K is laying waste to inflation and I don't know what to do at this point tbh, I need solid data on market trajectory
If inflation comes in at 3% that means rates will still be at 4%
of course we already had 2 quarters of negative GDP which counted as a recession all the previous times so, yeah, thanks for playing Jules
The best way trade with at the moment is investing in assets and stocks which has proven to be the best for for financial promising funds I invested in Bitcoin when it depreciation and still made 90% in profits
I’m an entitled millennial with a good job. I know I’m going to be OK. But I’m worried about my boomer parents who are looking to retire. I’m trying to make sure what little they have doesn’t get completely obliterated. I personally think a recession is coming & it’s going to be bad. I don’t have any faith in the federal reserve to respond appropriately/fast enough. Save your money, boyz n girls.
ALL THE FAT CATS ARE SHORT
Question is whether we are already in a recession.
The rich stays rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then the poor stays poor by spending like the rich yet not investiing like the rich
This guy has been cheering TSLA all the way down. Thought the market bottomed last summer. Wouldn’t take him seriously with any market calls. Just another CNBC tool.
invest outside u.s.
The wisest thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different streams of income that doesn't depend on the govt. Especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies(BTC, ETH..).
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. this year will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $180,000 savings to turn to dust
Earnings down, market up?
There also hasn't been a 'shallow' recession since 1970, so odds are that call is wrong especially considering how deep the yield curve inversion is which is stating anything but 'shallow/mild'. In fact your odds going by past recessions of it being shallow/mild are 1:9!
Luckily we’ve been in a recession already for a year lol
Invest in stocks is a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in stocks, it's worth it!
Why would you EVER target a higher unemployment? That's evil by definition… those are REAL people and their lives being talked about like some "factor" in a math problem.
I gonna keep buying stocks
Recession is gone. He missed it.
The economy is strong, strong job market, strong consumers, inflation annualized is trending down..
Why wouldn't we have at least average returns this year if the fundamentals are all good?
All job numbers are cap
what about the 2018-2019 bear market? what are these people talking about