Allianz advisor Mohamed El-Erian expresses optimism for avoiding a recession

by | Jul 21, 2023 | Recession News | 33 comments




Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz advisor and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the markets, the Fed, and why the U.S. economy can avoid a recession. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:

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“I think we can avoid a recession,” says Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz. This statement comes as a sigh of relief for many concerned about the economic outlook amid the global pandemic. El-Erian, a renowned economist and former CEO of PIMCO, has offered his insights on various economic matters over the years, making his opinion highly sought after.

El-Erian’s optimism stems from several factors that he believes can help steer the global economy away from a recession. One significant factor is the unprecedented level of fiscal and monetary stimulus injected into economies worldwide. Governments and central banks have responded to the pandemic with massive spending packages and interest rate cuts, aiming to support businesses, households, and financial markets.

The stimulus has helped soften the blow of the pandemic’s economic consequences, preventing a more severe downturn. It has provided a financial lifeline to struggling businesses, helped maintain employment levels, and boosted consumer spending in some sectors. El-Erian recognizes the effectiveness of these measures and highlights them as key contributors to potential economic recovery.

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Additionally, El-Erian acknowledges the promising developments in vaccine distribution and the rapid pace at which countries are vaccinating their populations. Vaccines are crucial in reopening economies and restoring confidence among businesses and consumers. As more people receive vaccinations, the chances of avoiding further lockdowns and restrictions become more likely, leading to improved economic conditions.

Moreover, El-Erian emphasizes the importance of global cooperation and coordination in navigating the current crisis. He suggests that countries should work together to address issues such as vaccine distribution, travel restrictions, and debt relief for heavily affected nations. Collaborative efforts can help minimize the risk of a prolonged global economic downturn and promote a more robust and inclusive recovery.

However, El-Erian does caution against complacency. While positive momentum is building, uncertainties remain. Variants of the virus, potential supply chain disruptions, and changes in consumer behavior could all pose challenges to the recovery process. Thus, policymakers and businesses must remain vigilant and adapt swiftly to any emerging obstacles.

El-Erian’s optimism serves as a reminder that the path to recovery is not preordained. It requires continued efforts and proactive decision-making from governments, central banks, and individuals alike. By staying focused on both short-term relief measures and long-term structural reforms, economies can gradually regain their footing.

As the chief economic advisor at Allianz, El-Erian’s insights carry significant weight in financial circles. His positive outlook on avoiding a recession should provide some reassurance to market participants and individuals worried about the economy’s future. By closely monitoring the progress of fiscal and monetary support measures, vaccine distribution, and global cooperation, we can remain cautiously optimistic about a strong and sustainable recovery from the ongoing crisis.

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33 Comments

  1. Khadija Sajid

    Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over….

    There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.

  2. Be Realistic

    Avoid it? Ur in it son!

  3. Dan Pronk

    Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

  4. Belinda

    The negative impact of SVB and SI debacles has been reflected in the regional bank ETF (KRE) which has witnessed a decline of over 20%. This event has triggered contagion effects, dragging the entire market lower. However, historically speaking, a localized and narrow contagion of this nature presents an opportune time to invest in strong, financially stable companies with substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets.

  5. bobby gunz

    The market and the Fed consistently underestimate the sticky nature of inflation. The markets are still unsure if the Federal Reserve will continue to its plan to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, despite the fact that bond yields are rising while stock prices are falling. What is the greatest strategy to take advantage of the current bear market while I'm still deciding whether to sell my $401k worth of stocks?

  6. Armenianheat

    Stop lying we’re going to crashhhhh enough

  7. Mia Vader

    As a new investor, it's important to remember that investing and trading require more than just technical analysis skills. Discipline and emotional maturity play a significant role in achieving success. It's wise to keep in mind the adage of "time in the market vs. timing the market," as this mentality can help you weather market volatility. With insights of Mr Andrew Martins and my commitment to learning and growth, I've been increasing my earnings in just a few months. Keep up the good work!

  8. greenlighter

    When the media says there will be a recession do not worry…..but if they say we will avoid a recession….get ready

  9. Oliver Dean

    During economic crashes, the more asset prices drop, the more I buy, whether real estate or stocks. In the meantime, I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fears increase. Apparently, there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market, because I read of someone who pulled in a profit of $134k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies

  10. JTSunrise

    recessions are planned by corporations through controlled price inflation to drive out small businesses and ease acquisitions and to increase employees debt to drive subjugation and servitude

  11. OneDrop

    Blame Nixon for taking us off the gold standard. Blame deficit spending.

  12. OneDrop

    How can you avoid what has already started?

  13. chavruta2000

    guy was crucifying FED for over a year. if there is no recession he needs to admit he was wrong.

  14. Teresa

    Mothers Day MAY 2023 in a 4 oz cup planted April 14 2023….. Spring break Wednesday plant something

  15. Teresa

    2023 spring break economy

  16. Teresa

    spring break economy

  17. Teresa

    spring break economy

  18. Teresa

    Spring break 2023 ends April 14,2023 Wednesday*plant something*

  19. Teresa

    Classic class project April 14 2023 . 4oz paper cups (check for wax coating) plant something*TAX day April 15*

  20. Jacob

    This makes no sense.
    His tone will change friday again, I have no idea what he really thinks.

  21. Clara Lynn

    With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $120,000 bond/stock portfolio.

  22. bset days678

    Understanding that this downturn is something to be happy about, not stress over. Best birthday gift anyone could ever asked for. The more you learn about money, the more confident you become in building wealth. Invest make those dollars count ,stay committed to the craft . It takes the same time to make $100 as it does to make $100k.

  23. jay invest

    The government is purposely causing the recession, they want us to run out of cash. Jobs are laying off and cutting hours on purpose. When I hear these idiots in the Media spilling such ridiculous rhetoric I laugh… It's all a game and we're just pieces on a chess board..

  24. Newman Thompson

    You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multimillionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life

  25. Bailey mclean

    There was a time when we " made it here", we had jobs for everyone and the products were of high quality, then the 1% wanted everything. Now Inflation drives prices up and if Inflation is high and jobs disappear by the millions we are in a recession and maybe headed for a Depression…So be careful with your money. It may take decades to get back on pay again. Luck to all.. I've seen folks make over $400k profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich…

  26. Ray Melendez

    It stuns me enormously the way that I go from carrying on with a typical way of life to making over 63k each month
    I've gleaned some useful knowledge throughout recent years that there are a lot of plenty opportunities in the financial markets;all it takes is just to focus on the right thing. Credits to Gregory Thomas Patchak

  27. S D

    Remember everything is rehearsed

  28. S D

    Be aware this chap is a puppet for cnbc and Bloomberg. He just says what they instruct him to say.

  29. Tarapada Sarkar

    lol.. He is now at 180 degree. FED said this year's GDP is 0.4%, that means recession starting from this quarter. Revised job data will be interesting.. My guess is revised payroll may come around 150 k .. So next month may be negative payroll number.

  30. Thomas Steiner

    I diss agree. If you notice the stock line in the past two years. It looks like a flat deadline. Going nowhere. I'm pretty sure it's going to take a nosedive soon

  31. Al S

    LOL . Now we can avoid a recession jeeees !!! This guy starts flopping as well

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