Listen, instead of trying to predict the bottom of the market (meaning no more new lows), I think it is a lot more possible to try to predict the bounces. Like the one we had in mid-June when the market rallied 20% in less than 60 days.
My thinking I as follows, even though the economy is fuk and we are deff in a bear market and will go lower, WE CANNOT just go down until the economy is better and inflation is down to 2% (so maybe at the end of 2023 or 2024). My reasoning being the rally in June, there was no good news; people simply believed that the FED is going to pivot after they see the GDP reports. Let me be clear the FED did not say this; people just made it up and ran with it.
My second reason being is simply the improbability of the market just going down with no bounces. Starting from AUG 16 height and until now, the market has dropped 23% (QQQ) and 21.8% (SP500) in less than 60 days. If this continues and we drop by another 22% before DEC 16 the Nasdaq will be at 8,034, and SP500 will be at 2,860. I am not saying that this is impossible considering the current state, but I am saying that such RAPID drops are very improbable.
Considering that we already dropped 23% in less than 2 months, we are more likely to see another 8+% bounce rather than another 10% straight drop.
Someone tell me if I should be tested? Or am I the next Benjamin Buffett
View Reddit by Mundane-Leave-8298 – View Source
LEARN ABOUT: Investing During Inflation
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
HOW TO INVEST IN SILVER: Silver IRA Investing
I look at what the candles are actually doing when I turn on my platform and trade what they they are telling me. Lots of green candles- go long. Lots of red candles- go short. I gave up trying to predict what would happen a long time ago.
Yes
Your reasoning is correct, but it has a single flaw: when will the bounce happen, so that we should know? If you do not give a date, how would you use it to trade and make money out of it?
You’re posting in r/wallstreetbets for advice….
What do you think?
Yea
I don’t even need to read your post. You’re asking WSB for advice so the answer is whole heartedly yes
The best answer is in the history. Take a look at what happened when the dot com bust happened at 2000 and bank crisis at 2008. It took years to recover from each event. And remember, there’s always, at any time, room for a 100% movement to the downside.