With major banks and companies Q3 earnings out and SPY still holding well. The questions begs on
Is this just a bear market rally?
Or is this the reversal to bull market?
We can’t time the market but looking at indications which are very confusing.. asking the obvious.
What are your thoughts.. are you
Bearish – why
Bullish – why
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Let’s wait and see the fed meeting on Nov 2. Any indication of even considering the idea of a pivot or pause or smaller hikes will cause stocks to rip higher. But I worry that they might say some things to harm sentiment. Some of the other members of the fomc are still extremely hawkish almost as if they want to tank the markets.. I’d wait and see but next week is important
Rates are going higher this can’t be a bull reversal yet. If you made some recovery, might be good to take the gain.
The hunt for red October was not fruitful for the bears
Bear market rally.
Job market is still strong, first round of earnings wasn’t that bad (for most), inflation still high, inverted yield curve, FED still raising rates. Relatively strong GDP number. We are just now seeing the start of the pain to come.
Most people don’t realize how long it take for changes in the economy to happen. There is a reason most economists are predicting the bulk of the recession to hit 2023.
This shit takes time to play out and your mad if you think the FED is going to start pivot language next Wednesday.
Edit: this is a great market to trade if you use basic confirmation rules as we see very clear legs up and down.
Midterms rally. Watch for huge selldown by mid Nov.
Fun fact: the market has never found a bottom while interest rates are going up.
BUT this time it’s different right?
So I work for a small trading firm. For the past few days we have been analysing long term behaviour of stocks and crypto in this market. My conclusion was the market has reached the floor of bear market around 2 months back because of seller exhaustion. Since 1 week our ” beginning of a bull run indicator” signals were going on, so my conclusion at first was we might be at the start of a slow bull run.
But my boss said this is a short recovery and we are going to hit the actual recession and even Bitcoin is going to hit 10k. The reason being the macro economic conditions aren’t good at all with inflation, rising interest rates, war and all. Even if the FED relaxes interest rates, my boss thinks it will be temporary, like some water on a big fire.
If anyone can shine a better light on this. Would be great.
Liquidity sweep is all this is, wreck the shorts, lure in the longs and people with hopes and dreams, then take their money and wreck the longs. While they sell and short all the way down.
I would ignore the media, for some reason they are putting out there that the FED is going to slow down. Even though they have said over and over they are not.
Powell will pull the rug when he starts talking this week. This exact scenario has happened like 6 times this year already.
5 out of 6 top earnings names were negative , rates are still going higher , with a rally going into each Powell meeting , I just don’t see it holding .
Death by 1000 cuts if I’m wrong tho..
As long as WSB is of a bearish sediment I’m comfortable with my investments.
A massive rally in the stock market doesn’t actually signal the fed that it’s time to stop raising interest rates. It does the opposite. I wouldn’t expect “a pivot” here.
It’s a bear market until you stop seeing posts like these.
I’m Waiting for the rug pull.
Market sees the massive Red wave coming. Bullish.
Who knows
Market is terrified of inflation continuing so expected rate hikes might be bullish into low PE value stocks like Dow30. Recession fears are bigger than interest rate hikes.
An unexpected hike might be bearish but some sectors will be less affected. Staying on course might be bullish.
A pivot would be bullish for growth but I truly doubt a pivot is coming. And after midterms political pressures will change.
Technicals were saying the market was oversold by September. Fundamentals are saying we’ve still got a ways to go before there’s value across the indexes again.
We’ll see what happens the next couple weeks
The bears haven’t left and won’t anytime soon
GDP way up. Job market still has an tight like a tiger. Inflation above 6%. Full point interest has to be on the table.
*cough* holiday rallies *cough*
Inflation still high? Yes.
Has the FED pivoted? No.
Is the Dollar still high? Yes.
Have yields dropped substantially? No.
So what on earth must you be smoking OP to even consider the thought of a reversal? This is just another bear market rally mate.