Ben Levisohn reports that the bond market is sounding the alarm on a weakening economy and potential recession.

by | Mar 27, 2023 | Recession News | 17 comments

Ben Levisohn reports that the bond market is sounding the alarm on a weakening economy and potential recession.




‘Barron’s Roundtable’ panel of Ben Levisohn, Carleton English and Andrew Bary discuss the stock market’s performance following the Federal Reserve meeting, Nvidia shares and Ford’s EV sales performance. #foxbusiness

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The bond market, which is widely considered a leading indicator of economic health, has been sending out warning signals of a slowdown and a possible recession. This has also been echoed by experts such as Ben Levisohn, the economics and markets editor at Barron’s.

The bond market has been experiencing a steep decline in yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note now paying out less than short-term bonds for the first time since 2007. This has been interpreted by many market analysts as a sign that investors are losing faith in the long-term prospects of the economy, and are seeking safer assets to park their money in.

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In a recent article for Barron’s, Levisohn noted that this phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has been a reliable predictor of past recessions. He cited several historical examples, such as the curve turning negative in 1989, ahead of the recession of 1990-91, and again in 2006, ahead of the global financial crisis.

Levisohn also pointed out that other indicators, such as declining manufacturing output and declining consumer confidence, are adding to the overall sense of gloom in the markets. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Brexit uncertainty, and slowing growth in Europe further complicate the picture.

However, Levisohn also acknowledged that the current situation is not a surefire guarantee of a recession. He noted that there are some mitigating factors, such as the robust labor market and the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts, which could help bolster the economy.

Nonetheless, he advised investors to proceed with caution and to consider their portfolio allocations carefully. “Even if the economy avoids recession, the bond market is saying something is wrong,” he wrote. “Be prepared for whatever it is.”

Overall, the warnings from the bond market are undoubtedly cause for concern, and should be taken seriously by investors and policymakers. While there may be some grounds for optimism, the signs of a slowing economy and possible recession cannot be ignored.

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17 Comments

  1. prada mario

    i did the research and Nvidia Insiders are selling ,dumb money going to hold thew bag again.

  2. Sanaa Lazare

    I started a new business this month and I am meeting with my first client today. I would like to share with you my personal experience with investing, everyone needs more than their basic salary to be financially secure. I am retiring next yr at 55 with 3 houses paid off worth 4.5 million . One is my place of residence the other 2 properties will give me $80,000per/yr rent . I will have an income stream of $20,000 per yr through my super which gives me total $100,000 a yr to live comfortably . I have no debts .. I started investing in the financial market mid March 2022 with the help of a well-known professional. it's really amazing. Stay Motivated!! !!

  3. Kevin Walsh

    Successful people don't become that way overnight what you see as wealth, a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life…

  4. Глас Бога

    Meanwhile, the collapse of several banks has shown that a huge hole has matured in the US banking system. It is estimated at $ 620 billion. A number of experts believe that with a further increase in the Fed rate, the hole will continue to grow. This could result in a full-scale economic crisis.

  5. Walter

    This next crash will be worse than 2008 this is bad

  6. Jeremy Walker

    Investors can’t predict the future, bearish periods automatically give way for a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a new profitable uptrend. I have come across articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to put on a watch list or buy at the moment?

  7. Susanna Bruemmer

    The most important thing that should be on everyone's mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.

  8. John Feichtinger

    Let's all recite together – $32 Trillion federal debt.

  9. Chris Bluebird

    I'm not kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it Investing is a long-term game, so focus on the long run.

  10. Joseph Gill

    The stock market is a complex system that is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic indicators, political events, and global trends. The relationship between policies and the stock market can be complex and multifaceted, and it can take time for the full effects of policies to be reflected in market trends. Therefore, it is possible that policies implemented in the past may have a "lagged effect" on the stock market, as their full impact may not be felt until later on.

  11. John Williams

    We have been in a recession for over six months inflation is twenty percent why all the lies.

  12. Hillary Clinton

    Make sure to use weed to. Because who knows what's goin down. Maybe when your sending yo weed into get checked it's being laced.

  13. Hillary Clinton

    Not fake but is what it is. Do it it's fake.

  14. Hillary Clinton

    Lmao I thought it was fake. Most don't get mad about fake.

  15. facts_matter

    Democratic presidents have overseen an average annual growth rate of 4.6% in the US economy since 1933, compared to just 2.4% under Republican presidents. Republican tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation of industries, and trade policies that favored corporations over workers have led to increasing income inequality and a decrease in the number of middle-class jobs. Republican cuts to social programs and a lack of investment in education and job training have made it harder for people to move up the economic ladder. 10 out of 11 recessions that have occurred since 1953 began during Republican presidencies. 8 of the top 10 states with the highest poverty rates are led by Republican governments, including Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Oklahoma.

  16. Lucas

    Although this is a global recession, which is characterized by a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of emerging markets like China, in comparison to developed economies. I have pulled out more than $340k from my bank. After all, the FDIC covers only up to $250,000, and the implosion could have bad effect. Looking to invest into the stock market now. Does anyone know how I could go about it?

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