BMO’s Adatia predicts 85% chance of recession in the next year, but doesn’t anticipate a severe one.

by | Dec 30, 2023 | Recession News | 9 comments

BMO’s Adatia predicts 85% chance of recession in the next year, but doesn’t anticipate a severe one.




Sadiq Adatia, CIO of BMO Global Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg for his market outlook. Adatia says the sell-off we are seeing in markets is in part on how cautious investors have been for most of the year. Adatia also adds recession odds remain extremely high but doesn’t expect a deep one.

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The possibility of a recession is being widely discussed in economic and financial circles, with many experts expressing concerns about the current global economic outlook. Recently, BMO’s chief investment officer, Brian Belski, stated that there is an 85% probability of a recession occurring over the next 12 months. However, he also emphasized that it is not expected to be a severe one. This prediction has raised questions and concerns about the potential impact on the economy and how individuals and businesses should prepare for the future.

The 85% probability of a recession is a significant and sobering statistic, especially for those who may be directly affected by an economic downturn. However, Belski’s statement also offers some reassurance by suggesting that the recession may not be as severe as past economic downturns. This suggests that while there may be challenging times ahead, there is hope for a relatively swift recovery.

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It is important to understand the factors that contribute to this prediction of a recession. A variety of economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment rates, and consumer spending are often used to gauge the health of the economy. At the same time, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes can also have a significant impact on the economy. With these factors in mind, it is understandable why experts like Belski are sounding the alarm about the potential for a recession in the near future.

While the prospect of a recession may be concerning, it is important to take a measured and informed approach to the situation. Being aware of the potential risks and challenges can help individuals and businesses make strategic decisions to mitigate the impact of an economic downturn. This may include diversifying investments, reducing debt, and building up emergency funds to weather any financial storms that may lie ahead.

Belski’s prediction also serves as a reminder for policymakers and government officials to take proactive measures to support the economy. This may include implementing fiscal policies to stimulate economic growth, investing in infrastructure, and providing support for industries that may be particularly vulnerable to a recession.

Ultimately, the 85% probability of a recession over the next 12 months is a stark warning that should not be taken lightly. It is important for individuals and businesses to be aware of the potential risks and to take proactive steps to prepare for any economic challenges that may arise. At the same time, it is crucial for policymakers to be vigilant in their efforts to support the economy and to minimize the impact of a potential recession. By being informed and proactive, it is possible to navigate through a challenging economic environment and emerge stronger on the other side.

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9 Comments

  1. @JobGideon-px4kp

    The best way to make profit in the market is to invest in crypto! Don't hold crypto! Invest with a professional Trader instead.

  2. @Seanpfree

    A permanent recession for the middle and lower classes moving forward, the wealthy will only continue to gain record profits.

  3. @jessicasam2516

    I used to think every investor went broke during recessions, meanwhile some make millions. I also thought everybody went out of business during the Great Depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always depression for some, and profit for others, it all starts from having the right mindset. That being said, I've set asides $250k to invest for future, unfortunately l'm a complete noob.

  4. @dougiep2769

    Do these people actually believe one thing they say?

  5. @fulminating90210

    Ugh, we no longer have a definition of what a Recession is. We know it isn't two consecutive down quarters of the GDP. Biden corrected us on that. But he has not yet strieghtened us out with a definition?

  6. @karimmourabitamari6540

    No need job losses in Canada to mess up, try renewing a mortgage and keep working in the void created by Bank of Canada…

  7. @CoveredCallETFInvesting

    Less we forget they said inflation was intransitory. I’ll remain investing as a pessimist.

  8. @Erikkurilla01

    Rather than attempting to predict future recessions and risking financial losses, a more effective strategy is to build a well-diversified portfolio that can withstand various market conditions. This approach has allowed some individuals to consistently generate substantial returns, averaging around 150K every quarter as reported by Bloomberg.

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