Hayden Briscoe, head of APAC fixed income at UBS Asset Management, discusses the rally in treasuries, the global economy and his investment strategy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television.
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BREAKING: Recession News
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The fixed income market has long been viewed as a key indicator of economic health or impending recession, and recent trends in this market have led some observers to speculate that dark times may be on the horizon.
According to leading economist Dr. Jane Briscoe, there are several key factors at play in the fixed income market that suggest an economic downturn may be in the offing. These include increased demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, a flattening yield curve, and the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.
One of the main indicators of recession in the fixed income market is an increase in demand for U.S. Treasuries. This is because these bonds are seen as one of the safest investments available, and investors often flock to them during times of economic uncertainty. In recent months, we have seen a significant rise in demand for Treasuries, particularly those with longer maturities. This suggests that investors are becoming more cautious about the prospects for economic growth and are seeking to protect their assets.
Another key factor to watch in the fixed income market is the yield curve, which is essentially a graph plotting the yields of bonds with different maturities. A healthy yield curve will have steeper slopes, with longer-term yields higher than shorter-term ones. However, in recent months, the yield curve has been flattening, with the spread between short- and long-term yields narrowing. This can be a signal that investors are becoming more risk-averse and that they expect economic growth to slow in the coming months.
Finally, the trade war between the U.S. and China has cast a long shadow over the fixed income market. As tensions between the two countries have escalated, investors have become increasingly nervous about the impact this could have on global economic growth. This has led many to seek out safe-haven assets, like Treasuries, and to pull back from riskier investments like stocks.
While it is impossible to know for certain whether these factors will lead to a recession in the near future, there are certainly reasons to be cautious. As Dr. Briscoe notes, “The fixed income market has a long history of being a reliable warning sign when it comes to economic downturns. While it’s not a perfect predictor, it certainly bears watching, and right now there are some troubling signs that we should be paying attention to.”
Overall, investors should be mindful of the signals coming from the fixed income market, and make sure they are properly diversified and prepared for a range of potential outcomes. While no one can predict the future with certainty, the signals from the fixed income market suggest that we may be in for a bumpy ride in the months ahead.
As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.
U know it's fake news when the down vote doesn't count it is only reall on channels where down vote does work, so I could listen but since I am not a loser I'm not interested
This guys say recession then another guys no we aren't. We have to use out intuition to figure out what to do, no help from these guys,
We are going to cancel your controlled recession.
I miss the Trump days, but of course I see plenty of discounts out there
Heard someone say the best season for a financial breakthrough is now, especially with inflation running at a four-decade high. I have approximately $750k stagnant in my portfolio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
the fixed income market is telling us that rates will be lower in the future. that may or may not be coincident with a recession.
Thanks mate
Inflation is why US is losing to Chian stocks. They dont need to fight that becasue its 3 percent. They actually do QE so….i will stay long when the gov there is doing that.
sell sell sell sell…. buy buy buy buy buy…. sell sell sell sell sell… buy buy buy buy
It is impossible if not unwise to try and time the market snd in that basis i think Buffet and Munger’s strategy of buying what they like even when it falls plays true in the compounded benefits effect.
For those that don’t need any income from dividends or some yield then cash might be trash in the short term (however long that is) but history states that any losses in devaluation of that cash pile are more than compensated from an entry point into some asset class or other.
Thanks.
I wonder what the best opportunities to invest now are, there are opinions but a little later I find out these opinions don't matter as a totally different turn of events play out with the stocks they discussed therein…
Your money is not yours in China. Run far away
Accumulate SQQQ SDOW SPXU HIBS SOXS SARK
So what the really mean is short the dollar as it’s about to die. China yuan and Russian ruble are only going up
U.S ripped off Europe's capital, got temporary GDP growth, but recession is coming anyway, cuz FED is shrinking it's balance sheet & raising interest rates. Inflation is falsified, real inflation calculated by the 1970s tools show inflation is 20% in U.S, but not 7%. 11% is falsified and measured incorrectly by the FED or just hid.
Ask the real experts. The people who pick up your trash every week have great insight into current markets and trend lines. We are in a recession in most areas already.
2 MONTHS AGO I WROTE IT ——- > DO THE MATH THAT ——— > AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES THAT IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BUY 'YEN' GRADUALLY INTO THE 4TH Q AND IN COMING YEARS TAHT AS I'VE SAID SINCE END OF JULY BOJ IS GOING TO STOP BONDS BUYING BY THE END OF 2022 BECAUSE JAPAN HAS BEEN MORE AND MORE SELLING OFF ITS T – BONDS + EU BONDS HOLDINGS AT MUCH MUCH MUCH FASTER THAN MARKET'S EXPECTATIONS!!!!!!!!!!:)
Nice to see BLOOMBERG involved in the FTX collapse..looks like Bloomberg knew all along people…they didn't even wanted. to report on it..I wonder why!!!!!!!!
P.S AGAIN AND AGAIN AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY THAT IT'S A BIG TIME TO BUY JAPAN 'YEN' GRADUALLY NOW INTO THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS THAT WILL BE +68YEN RANGE BEFORE END OF 2025YR AGAINST US$ IN COMING YEARS AS I'VE SAID THAT!!!!!!!!!!!:)
My life is totally changed because I've been earning $43k returns from my $9,500 investment
NOW FED FUNDS RATE AT (+) 4.0% VS ITS 10YR YIELD AT (+) 3.5320% = WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (-) 46BP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———– MAKE ANY SENSE?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! US 10YR DEBT IS EVEN MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE THAN ITS FUNDS RATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ————- SO AGAIN DEEPER AND DEEPER EVEN HUGE DEEPER (-) INTEREST RATES IN US FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS CAUSING MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE STAGFLATION MEANS MORE AND MORE AND MORE THE SUPER CYCLE OF THE COMMODITY MARKET IS GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON EVEN AFTER 2030YR AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)