The risk of Australia falling into recession is growing, as the outlook for the global economy deteriorates. We explore what will happen to businesses, jobs, house prices and shares in 2023.
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00:00 Introduction
1:30 – 2:03 The risks of recession in 2023
2:04 – 3:21 Where to put your money
3:22 – 4:30 What about resources?
4:31 – 5:12 Blue chip stocks
5:13 – 5:58 Impact of a US recession on the share market
6:00 – 10:08 The economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
10:09 – 10:52 Will the US fall into recession?
10:53 – 11:44 How likely is a recession in Australia?
11:45 – 12:22 Could we talk ourselves into a recession?
12:23 – 13:01 What will 2023 feel like?
13:02 – 14:01 House price predictions
14:02 – 14:38 How will households cope with higher interest rates?
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BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
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Title: How Likely is a Recession in 2023?
Introduction
As we inch closer to the year 2023, the question on everyone’s minds is whether an economic downturn, commonly known as a recession, is imminent. Economic forecasts have always been surrounded by uncertainty, and predicting recessions is no exception. Nevertheless, experts have been tirelessly analyzing various factors that could influence the global economy, trying to gauge the likelihood of a recession in 2023. In this article, we will examine some key indicators and expert opinions to assess the probability of a recession materializing in the near future.
Economic Indicators: A Mixed Bag
When determining the possibility of a recession, economists commonly rely on several key indicators, such as GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment. To get a comprehensive understanding of the global economic climate, experts analyze these indicators at both national and international levels.
Currently, the global economy is on the road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Major economies have rebounded strongly, contributing to overall growth. GDP growth rates have been positive in most countries, demonstrating initial signs of a robust recovery. Simultaneously, unemployment rates are declining as businesses are rehiring workers, and consumer sentiment appears to be improving. These positive indicators suggest a lower likelihood of an immediate recession in 2023.
Nevertheless, economists also point out some concerning trends that could potentially trigger an economic downturn. Rising inflation rates and potential overheating in certain sectors might result in central banks tightening their monetary policy, which could dampen economic growth. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes could disrupt global supply chains, negatively affecting trade and commerce. These factors, though not definitive predictors, raise caution flags and remind us that forecasting recessions is challenging.
Expert Opinions: Varied Perspectives
When it comes to forecasting recessions, economists often hold varied opinions. While some experts foresee smooth sailing for the global economy in 2023, others voice concerns about underlying vulnerabilities that might create headwinds. It is crucial to approach these forecasts with an understanding that they represent informed speculation rather than absolute certainties.
Optimistic experts argue that various fiscal and monetary policies implemented by governments and central banks worldwide should continue to pave the way for economic growth. Additionally, the gradual easing of travel restrictions will stimulate sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, such as tourism and hospitality. These factors contribute to a positive outlook for the years to come and suggest a lower probability of a recession.
Conversely, some economists highlight risks that might lead to a potential economic downturn in 2023. They point out that fiscal stimulus measures have created high levels of debt, which could become unsustainable if not managed effectively. Moreover, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and potential unforeseen events like natural disasters or financial shocks could destabilize the global economy. These uncertainties remind us that the absence of immediate recession indicators does not guarantee complete immunity.
Conclusion
Predicting an economic recession is an arduous task even for the most experienced economists. While some indicators suggest a continuation of the global economic recovery, cautionary factors must not be overlooked. Although the probability of a recession in 2023 seems relatively low at present, the complex interplay of economic variables and future unforeseen events can quickly alter the landscape.
As individuals, businesses, and policymakers, it is crucial to remain informed and actively monitor developments in the global economy. By doing so, we can strive to mitigate vulnerabilities, make well-informed decisions, and adapt to potential changes in the economic environment.
Its clear everone wants to call a recession so the RBA starts to cut interest rates. The RBA is not stupid. They will keep rates high so we dont have another surge in inflation!
Haha 50 50 change
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
Mindset is such a big problem for small business owners. As a finance director I hear time and time again concerns about how bad it will be and people asking me if their business can survive. Yes it will be difficult, but running a business is always difficult. So instead I work with them to try and spot the unique and lucrative opportunities that are about to be put in front of them. This has giving me some ideas for a video I am creating on this topic, thanks for the inspiration
Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Great video, I have a quick question. I am an aspiring trader, I am looking study some traders and earn off their expertise rather than investing myself and lose money emotionally. Whats your take on copy trading? Do people really make money? Just looking for some reassurance.Thank you!
Comments section full of scammers pretending to need investment advice and answer it by another user name.
Be careful people.
Economists couldn’t find any kind solution for inflation yet.
Increasing interest rate is their key solution and they don’t care about transferring the pressure on people shoulders.
If it doesn’t work as they expected, then they create high unemployment rate that would resulted in firing staff, closing down small businesses and send them to Centrelink. Again another ugly solution. Universities haven’t done their job to help the people and raise well educated economists.
I’ve been saying this for a long time we should stop worrying about what is coming instead prepare for when it comes .The market always recovers, take for example the 08 crash the market still bounced back , it might take long but it will definitely.
Market is down still, I've been looking up strategies and apparently both bull and bear market condition provides equal avenue to accrue massive gains, and a news article particularly mentioned a 54 year old that made $180k in 5weeks, how do I learn these strategies, my portfolio has been stagnant for months.
we are doomed! good luck everybody!
Isaiah 24:11
“There is a crying for wine in the streets; all joy is darkened, the mirth of the land is gone.”
King James Version (KJV)
If you wanna be successful, you most take responsibility for your emotions, not place the blame on others. In addition to make you feel more guilty about your faults, pointing the finger at others will only serve to increase your sense of personal accountability. There's always a risk in every investment, yet people still invest and succeed. You must look outward if you wanna be successful in life.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate mv portfolio
I used to think everybody went broke during the Great Depression and other major crashes but they didn’t… Some made millions, I also thought everybody went out of business during these times but they didn’t, some went into business, there's always depression/recession for some people and there's always a good time for others, it's all about perspective.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
With inflation running at a four-decade high, a Recession is now the ‘most likely outcome for the economy. How can I grow my portfolio to outpace inflation and maintain a successful long-term strategy? I have been reading of investors making about $250k profit in this current crashing market, and I need ideas on how to achieve similar profits.
too good know about finance development
Greed and stupidity at their best in 2023 is a chain reaction
You expect me to trust ABC?? NO. I've HAD ENOUGH. These major news outlets aren't up to snuff.
Recession is a money transfer from the main population to the superweathy class who have plenty of money to buy the bargain with the back support of the banks.
There is no other alternatives, the internet rate has to be going up to fight the inflation.
With the current problem around the world today I think it's best everyone invest more in digital asset than Saving in banks, anyone you can manage don't live a life with no investment . Just my thoughts
Dollar cost averaging on few good etfs and crypto and holding on to your realestate investment should help anyone cruise through inflation
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession and precisely when it’s going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.
US resection is eminent