Charles Dallara, former Institute of International Finance CEO and Director at Large at the National Bureau of Economic Research, joins ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ to discuss increased odds of a recession, the economic reaction to quantitative contraction, and more….(read more)

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Charles Dallara, the former managing director of the Institute of International Finance and current senior fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), recently shared his thoughts on the likelihood of a recession in the United States.

In an interview with CNBC, Dallara acknowledged the current uncertainty in the global economy, but he also expressed optimism about the U.S. economy’s ability to weather potential storms. Dallara noted that the U.S. economy has experienced significant growth since the 2008 financial crisis, and that the current expansion is now the longest in U.S. history.

However, Dallara also pointed out that there are some concerning indicators that suggest a slowdown could be imminent. For example, he noted that manufacturing and agriculture have been struggling due to ongoing trade tensions with China, and that the yield curve has inverted – a phenomenon that has often been a precursor to previous recessions.

Despite these warning signs, Dallara believes that the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are strong, and that it is not necessarily doomed to a recession. He pointed out that consumer spending – which makes up a significant portion of the U.S. economy – remains solid, and that the job market is still strong.

Dallara also noted that the Federal Reserve has been proactive in cutting interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. While some economists have criticized these rate cuts, Dallara believes that they have been necessary and effective in keeping the economy moving.

Overall, Dallara believes that the odds of a recession in the U.S. are not high, but he also acknowledged that there are risks and uncertainties that could still manifest. He stressed the importance of remaining vigilant and flexible, as well as being prepared to adapt to changing market conditions. As he said in the CNBC interview, “It’s important to be resilient and to be aware of what’s happening around us.”