David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth CIO and global head of investments, and David Bahnsen, founder and CIO at the Bahnsen Group, join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss whether we are on the verge of a recession, what the recent job data suggests, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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Economy Might See ‘Mild Recession’ like 2002, Says Citi’s David Bailin
As global uncertainties and market volatility continue to grip the financial world, experts are starting to discuss the possibility of an economic downturn. David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer at Citi, suggests that the economy might experience a ‘mild recession’ similar to that of 2002.
A ‘mild recession’ refers to a period of economic decline that is less severe in terms of duration and magnitude compared to a typical recession. This kind of economic downturn is often characterized by a slowdown in growth, increased unemployment, and a decline in consumer spending, among other indicators.
Bailin’s prediction is based on a careful analysis of the current economic landscape and key factors that contributed to the 2002 recession. This includes the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about rising inflation. Additionally, market conditions such as tightening monetary policies and ongoing supply chain disruptions also play a role in creating an environment conducive to a potential recession.
However, it is important to note that a ‘mild recession’ does not necessarily imply a catastrophic economic collapse. In fact, compared to the devastating recession of 2008, this type of downturn is expected to be less severe, with a potentially shorter duration and a quicker recovery period.
One reason for this potential scenario is the significant financial stimulus injected into the global economy by governments and central banks in response to the pandemic. These measures, such as fiscal spending and monetary easing, have helped to mitigate the economic fallout and support businesses and households during these uncertain times. They have also helped fuel a rebound in many sectors, leading to a faster recovery compared to previous recessions.
Furthermore, the lessons learned from the 2008 financial crisis have resulted in improved regulations and risk management practices within the financial sector. Banks and financial institutions are now better equipped to identify and manage potential risks, reducing the likelihood of a systemic collapse that could trigger a severe recession.
While the possibility of a ‘mild recession’ cannot be ruled out, it is crucial to remember that economic forecasts are subject to various variables and uncertainties. The path of the pandemic, geopolitical developments, and government policies will all play a crucial role in determining the direction of the global economy.
Investors and individuals should closely monitor economic indicators and stay informed about geopolitical events and policy decisions that could impact markets. Diversifying investment portfolios and maintaining a cautious approach during uncertain times is essential for weathering any potential economic downturn.
As discussions about a potential ‘mild recession’ gain traction, Citi’s David Bailin’s observations provide valuable insights into the current economic landscape. While challenges and uncertainties persist, the lessons learned from previous recessions and the measures taken to address them should provide some level of confidence in mitigating the impacts of any potential economic decline.
Chinese think more often of politics means teachers give whites the grade; what is the solution for illiterate engineers and professors.
When you take a step back and look at it, life is a strange and lovely experience. I'm grateful to be here with you all. Working with a financial expert may genuinely set you up for success in life. I'm glad I was able to contact my coach, Rodger Michael Karl, earlier this year since, while others were complaining about the downturn, I was busy cashing out from my portfolio, eventually making over six figures in the first quarter alone…
Housing has never been afforded able in this country.
You're scary people. No one has seen or worked through a recession recently except for maybe boomers, and they're senile now so they don't remember. There parents had a depression. What you might be doing with these very short downturns and then quick bubble is short cycling. Short cycling creates a period of inefficiency that are increasingly more inefficient until the whole machine blows up. Every time you're going into debt or getting in trouble no one is trying to be careful and save to get out of debt and take fewer risks. Instead they try to buy and add more and speed up. And they keep getting mad at people who don't like they're cheating. Look what this says. I mild recession like 2002, that wasn't the recession, and then 2008 was a banking collapse, and still not really a recession.
A financial professional you work with could really prepare you for life. I'm glad I was able to get in touch with my coach Gregory Thomas Patchak' earlier this year because I was actively cashing out from my portfolio and finally earned over 370k just in the first quarter while everyone else was complaining about the downturn.Gregory Thomas Patchak helped pay down our debt and save up for retirement.
Most likely a non-internal issue caused this recession. The US dollar is becoming less influential as a government reserve currency for the first time in decades. A smaller amount of money is spent on trading in stocks and oil than in the past, and there are no more economies to utilize to control inflation. They all offer evidence in favor of the hypothesis that a new multilateral international order is in development.
yeah in 2002 we had m2 falling at fastest rate since 1932. in 2002 the fed was raising rates into a recession even though they didnt raise rates into a recession at any point in 94 years…. we had a pandemic and inflation of course and homes were dropping 15% in value in 1 year we had presidents falling down and homes were at new records of 8.5x income to price ratio and we had bubbles n all 3 stocks bonds and real estate and we haded 10trillion in debt in 6 years of course of course
Title is incorrect. David Bahnsen said it not David Bailin
Please STFU with this recession talk… Money is still printing And the rich are still getting richer…