“CMBS Hell” Expected to Double Bank Failures amid Impending Real Estate Implosion

by | Apr 14, 2023 | Bank Failures | 21 comments




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Bank Failures to DOUBLE on Coming Real Estate Implosion [CMBS Hell]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on global economies, with many businesses closing, workers losing their jobs, and industries experiencing severe losses. These economic factors, combined with the recent surge of online shopping, have caused a significant reduction in demand for commercial real estate properties, leading to a looming decline of the commercial real estate market.

A recent report by the Wall Street Journal revealed that banks in the United States are preparing for a wave of commercial mortgage defaults as a result of the expected decline in the commercial real estate market. Banks that have been providing loans to businesses using commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are bracing for massive losses as property owners default on their loans.

The report further shows that many of these loans were issued for retail properties such as shopping malls and hotels, which have been hit the hardest by the pandemic’s impact on the economy. With the decline in consumers visiting shopping malls and spending time in hotels, these properties are likely to struggle to meet their debt obligations.

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The potential default of the commercial real estate market is expected to be worse than the 2008 financial crisis. During the last financial crisis, subprime mortgages drove massive banking failures, which ultimately led to the Great Recession. However, this time around, the commercial real estate market could lead to a more significant and widespread banking crisis.

Many financial institutions have already started to brace themselves for significant losses, potentially leading to a double of bank failures in the USA. The Federal Reserve has already initiated stress tests on many of the largest banks in the country, with a focus on their exposure to commercial real estate.

In conclusion, the pandemic has brought on unprecedented challenges to the global economy, particularly in the commercial real estate market. The looming decline of the market brings serious challenges and risks to banks, which could lead to widespread failures across the sector. It is imperative to brace for impact and initiate measures to prevent a banking crisis that could further worsen the global economic situation.

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21 Comments

  1. Stan Banks

    Will be a short, short or No opportunity for Joe investor to grab any discounted real-estate. Public companies will raise hundreds of millions again, fast, and buy any substantially discounted properties. Again. We have seen this. Public companies will scoop it up and rent it out.

  2. Stan Banks

    Functionally Obsolete. I have been using that word in Residential remodeling now for several years… as I get into customers homes which were built in 60's and 70's. Is a LOT of obsolescence out there. Have u noticed public schools get torn down and rebuilt? Sports stadiums get torn down and rebuilt. Every old building has been substantially over valued and that is becoming apparent in the costs of upgrading and bringing buildings to modern standards.

  3. Ayu Hafiz

    SVB's collapse hasn't made anything better. I feel sad that even though I am investing, I don't have the brain power to dig through how each company is doing, is this a good time to buy stocks or not, my reserve of $450K is laying waste to inflation and I don't know what to do at this point tbh, I need solid data on market trajectory

  4. Charles Sheehey

    Funny that so much real estate content I see lately totes this ending of work from home.
    Everyone I know in the consulting and finance industry works from home and employers don’t want them back.
    Deloitte downsized it’s office presence in every major city and saved nearly $500M in real estate and employee travel expenses.
    My opinion is that these pieces try to promote fear to employees to think that work from home is ending.
    As the old generation rolls into retirement millennial managers will only want productive employees who can work from home.
    Commercial real estate is in big trouble for the long term.

  5. Brock Steel

    Link to JPM CRE pdf? Where did you get that report? thx

  6. Sailing Solo

    Hopefully it all implodes. The greed is destroying humanity. Lets get back to sticks and stones.. kevin can buy a horse and carriage for transport

  7. annalie love

    you are the ryan reynolds of finance

  8. Pharaoh Towers

    #FedTreason Fed's collapsing its banking system, Even desantis knows the threat of CBDC. Fed banks arent obligated to repay dollars that arent legal tender (Article1 Section10 "No state shall make anything but silver & gold us minted coin a tender in payment of debts" BY USA Constitutional LAW)
    Article1 Section8 THE SOLE POWER TO REGULATE CRYPTO COMMERCE IS CONGRESSIONAL and ELECTED Not SEC Nor FED.
    (Section 4 of 14th AMENDMENT OF USA CONSTITUTION. – The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
    Nothing Terminates constitutional public debt validity but paying off the debt in Constitutional silver and gold us minted coin or if we returned to usa gold standard backed us dollar.)
    NONE OF USA STATES CAN QUESTION THE PUBLIC DEBT VALIDITY OF US CRYPTO RUNNING ON USA DOLLAR.
    FED holds 2% inflation goal so we expect 2-3 yrs of higher fed interest rate hikes, GO CRYPTO NOW or physical silver & gold.
    USA ALREADY BANKRUPT, EVEN USA OIL/Petrodollar has NO Legal Tender just pure debt dollar & Tesla Energy has BTC & DOGE (BANKS HAVE NEVER PAID OFF THERE DEBTS. Cause they have no legal tender money, THE USA DOLLAR IS PURE DEBT since fed revoked the goldstandard)
    CBDC Cant BE LEGAL TENDER & DOLLAR ISNT LEGAL TENDER EITHER So Banks are indebted for decades.
    Wage is Money owed to you for your labor or services but you have never been paid in silver & gold us minted coin as its the only way in usa to pay off there obligated debt of labor wages
    US DOLLAR will COLLAPSE or GOLD STANDARD & minting pristine near pure silver & gold us minted 2023 coins ARE THE ONLY Solution to end bank runs & end inflation & end high interests, while guaranteeing the dollar is worth GOLD OR SILVER of appropriate weights only regulated by congress.
    Indebted Banks are ash or Zombies & bank runs wont end any time soon.
    Its easy banks without gold reserve & no us silver or gold us minted coin ARE INDEBTED & HAVE NO POWER TO EVER PAY OFF THERE DECADES OF DEBTS.
    I Still dont think bank runs are over, dollar fiat system only depends on blind trust but as banking instability and fear in banking rises the bank runs will continue to occur as it is inevitable as FED TOOK AWAY YOUR USA GOLD STANDARD OF THE VALUE OF EVERYTHING YOU OWN AND PURCHASED.
    GOLD VALUE IMPEDED INFLATION AND HIGH INTEREST cause no one was gonna pay mass excessive prices that steal your gold value, you could hoard gold and wait for interests to drop from banks desperation but hoarding was banned and they then repossessed all usa gold.
    SVB would still have gold reserves if we still had gold standard and SVB would have never been illiquid.
    I dont think the fed cares about bank runs as JEROME POWELL FEARS LOSING CONTROL OF HYPERINFLATION.
    Decentralized Crypto is really the only solution to both global bank runs and rising hyper inflation
    Low entry stablecoin can support the poor and rise standard of living quality.
    Proof of stake crypto keeps value stability and appreciation of crypto
    crypto bitcoin and xrp and nfts are designed for high wealth transactions
    Luna classic is not ready for usa but it can rise every nations standard of living whos currency is less than 1 to 1 to us dollar.
    Once luna classic repegs to $1 we should lock it to $1 and mint Lunc at a rate to hold $1 lunc, but staking rewards should rise every year to keep staking growth and staking competitive and reinforce diversification in staking.
    We plan to Back CRYPTO TO SILVER AND GOLD US MINTED COINS as must be the legal tender of all usa citizens born or naturalized.
    ID SUGGEST FED AND US MINT MUST REINSTATE THE GOLD STANDARD AND BEGIN MINTING near pure usa 2023 Pristine gold coins and usa 2023 Pristine silver coins, its the only thing that prevent the entire usa banking system from insolvency bankruptcy
    CBDC can never be legal tender as only us silver and gold coins can be considered legal tender as recognized as legal tender by 14 usa states laws.
    All DEBTS AND NEGATIVE OBLIGATIONS TO BANKS IN REBELLION ARE VOIDED, All victims of REBELLION ILLEGAL BANKS Must be reimbursed plus damages to be made whole.

  9. Milca Weule

    Please look after yourself

  10. Milca Weule

    You look tired, please sleep a bit. ❤

  11. Dan C

    I really love this content but I have to disagree when it comes to remote work. 90% of our company works remotely and productivity is up 20%. I'm not sure where everyone is getting the idea that being in the office is more productive. My work/life balance is better WFH, I accept more overtime, I create more opportunities for myself. The office is a creative sinkhole and if you think otherwise you're a dinosaur.

  12. Mikeb63

    ski hills in canada are like a printing press for money

  13. Mikeb63

    hot dog

  14. Bob Bruck

    Its based off a 30 yr payment refi every 10 years… fear monger

  15. Angelo Iacovella

    My employer is Fortune 15. 2 years after COVID they announced they were closing 80% of all offices indefinitely because on the books they found everyone was more productive working at home. We're technology – mostly software engineering. We're over 80k employees. Commercial RE is smoked – stick a fork in it. We just had a local large office development torn down to turn into a housing development – a very picturesque setting – always said it was a beautiful office complex mostly because of its setting in suburbia. Those of us that have been working remotely for almost 20 years – way before the pandemic, will NEVER go back – because we've already proven our worth in productivity. If you suck at life – you have no business working at home. Most people suck at life.

  16. x m

    were actually doing it. were repeating '08 lol.

  17. Tage N

    Kevin: service based inflation is too sticky!! Also Kevin: buy now pay later pls

  18. Bear Market Trader

    Great point and fundamental analysis Kevin. The TRUE Top G Governor of California.

  19. Michael Hayes

    ❤ some one owns all this bad debt.
    Loaning money at 2% still on there books
    With interest rates 4.25 and real inflation at 14%
    And the commercial property problems
    It's a time bomb

  20. Harris

    Hi Kevin, WSJ says opposite approach i think . . . WSJ:Work-From-Home Era Ends for Millions of Americans

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