Rising rates and falling asset values have caused major bank failures, including the failure of First Republic Bank last weekend. What we are seeing is a credit contraction, says former bank director Alasdair Macleod. He expects the banking crisis to accelerate. Even some bullion banks could fail, he notes. Under that scenario, “the authorities…will probably lean on the gold price as much as possible to keep it under control.”

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INTERVIEW TIMELINE:
0:00 Intro
1:59 First Republic failure
6:11 JPMorgan takeover
10:40 Rising rates
15:15 FDIC
16:50 UK banks
18:57 Brokerage accounts
24:02 Bullion banks
35:47 Gold-backed currency
38:45 Currencies failling
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LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures

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Bank Failures: Are Bullion Banks Next?

As the global economy faces unprecedented challenges, the possibility of bank failures looms large. With recent events causing major upheavals in the financial markets, experts are now questioning the resilience of bullion banks. These banks, which are heavily involved in the precious metals market, may be the next to succumb to the pressures and vulnerabilities that are surfacing.

Bullion banks, or precious metals banks, play a vital role in facilitating the trading and financing of gold and silver. They are responsible for offering a variety of services, including buying and selling these precious metals, providing liquidity to the market, managing storage facilities, and even offering derivatives tied to precious metals. As such, they are crucial in supporting the functioning of the physical precious metals market.

However, recent events have exposed the risks and vulnerabilities faced by bullion banks. The global pandemic has disrupted supply chains, leading to a shortage of physical gold and silver in the market. As a result, the disconnect between paper claims on gold and actual physical metal has widened, putting immense pressure on bullion banks to fulfill their obligations.

To make matters worse, the economic fallout from the pandemic has resulted in a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. This increased demand, along with supply chain disruptions, has led to significant price volatility and increased strain on bullion banks. For example, during the height of the market turmoil in March 2020, we witnessed unprecedented spreads between spot prices and futures prices for precious metals, leaving some bullion banks at risk of default.

Furthermore, bullion banks are exposed to the risks of the derivatives market, particularly through their involvement in precious metal leasing and forwards. These complex financial instruments can expose them to potential losses and counterparty risks, especially in times of market stress.

Additionally, the regulatory landscape surrounding bullion banks remains murky. Unlike traditional banks, which are subject to rigorous capital requirements and oversight, bullion banks largely operate with less regulatory scrutiny. This lack of transparency may mask the true risks these banks are facing, raising concerns about their ability to weather unforeseen shocks.

Given these factors, it is reasonable to question whether bullion banks are prepared to withstand the current economic turmoil. While some argue that the unique characteristics of the precious metals market may act as a stabilizing force, there are growing concerns that the strain on bullion banks may push them to their limits.

Should a bullion bank fail, the consequences could extend beyond the financial sector. The disruption to the precious metals market would have far-reaching implications, potentially leading to supply shortages and soaring prices. In an economic environment already plagued by uncertainty, such a crisis could exacerbate the existing problems and further undermine confidence in the financial system.

To mitigate the risks, it is imperative that regulators and policymakers address the vulnerabilities of the bullion banking sector. Enhanced oversight, stricter capital requirements, and increased transparency are necessary to ensure the stability of these banks, safeguarding both the financial system and the precious metals market.

In conclusion, the fragility of the global economy has raised concerns about the resilience of bullion banks. With supply chain disruptions, increased demand for precious metals, and exposure to derivatives risks, these banks face significant challenges. Regulatory reforms must be implemented to strengthen the sector and prevent potential failures that could have severe consequences on the precious metals market and the broader economy.