Dan Greenhaus from Solus indicates a recession is imminent based on signals from the Treasury and oil markets.

by | Apr 1, 2023 | Recession News | 42 comments

Dan Greenhaus from Solus indicates a recession is imminent based on signals from the Treasury and oil markets.




Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management chief strategist, and Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management’s head of North America investments, join ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss the state of the stock market amid the bank crisis triggered by the fall of Silicon Valley bank and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:

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An impending recession may be on the horizon, according to Dan Greenhaus, Chief Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. Greenhaus believes that the connections between the Treasury and oil markets suggest that a downturn may be approaching, and he has been advising his clients to prepare accordingly.

Greenhaus points to the recent inversion of the yield curve, whereby long-term Treasury bond yields fell below the short-term yields, as a sign that investors are nervous about the economy. Historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since 1950, and Greenhaus believes that this time is no different.

Furthermore, Greenhaus argues that the oil markets are signaling a slowdown in economic activity. The price of oil has been falling steadily in recent months, and Greenhaus believes that this is due to a combination of factors, including oversupply, slowing demand, and concerns about global growth.

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According to Greenhaus, these two indicators taken together suggest that a recession may be on the horizon. He cautions that this does not mean a recession is imminent, but rather that investors should prepare for the worst-case scenario. He advises investors to be cautious with their stock portfolios and to consider diversifying into assets that are less vulnerable to economic downturns, such as gold, real estate, or bonds.

Greenhaus also notes that the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hikes may be exacerbating the situation. When the Fed raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth. Greenhaus argues that the Fed should be more cautious with its approach in the current environment, and should consider pausing its rate hikes until the economic outlook becomes clearer.

In conclusion, Dan Greenhaus believes that the Treasury and oil markets are suggesting that a recession may be on the horizon. While he advises investors to prepare for the worst-case scenario, he also notes that the situation is not set in stone and that the Fed may be able to mitigate the effects of a potential downturn through its policies. Nevertheless, investors should take heed of Greenhaus’ warning and be prepared for a possible economic slowdown in the coming months.

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42 Comments

  1. Braxton Horton

    With the way the market is moving, we'll mostly hold for longer than 2030 to realize profit gain, I think a video on "How to profit from the present market" will be more effective, I mean I've heard of people making upto 250K within few months and I'd like to know how.

  2. William Appleby

    With oil at 68 why is gas still 4 bucks

  3. FilmPA1986

    The problem with videos and news it seems that the separation of why saving depositor funds vs. saving the bank and its own investments and that the banks have borrowed and do borrow 10 times the depositor's funds from the government its self that, that money goes away basically twice or more times and the question of how that affects the "Economy" and how it creates a "Recession" I mean companies have employees, they work, what companies would have to rid workers? Would food prices and rent prices truly go up to a height incomparable to wages as to make everyday working people like you and me homeless without money like photographs of the 1930's dust bowl after the markets crashed from beep pocket investors who borrowed money from the government almost without a cap and when investors sold there was nothing there to support and default occurred and stocks went "crashing down" to nothing so if the US Government is saving the people not the companies and the companies have leveraged so badly that they all fail it's a question of if people will be fired or not or let go due to company liquidation, and whether the US Gov saves these companies and if they are saved the cycle continues they will be allowed to borrow against depositors by 10X or more from the US Gov and become more in debt, debt ceiling rises and they just print more trillions and more debt and more debt without a hedge against gold since Nixon era, with hikes only slightly slowing it all down, the fed will be and is being forced to go much higher without caring about what it does because "Unemployed isn't as bad as the past 5-7 decades", so the shoe could probably drop and saving the banks may have just been the nail in the coffin to give them ammunition to raise the rates even moreso since the people are protected by bank default and failure it doesn't even affect people it only affects the banks and so we could potentially see mass bank failures and failures of many companies who have millions of employees

  4. Jay Bartgis

    I miss the old YouTube comment section that wasnt filled with spam bots circle jerking each other off with fake comments

  5. Doris steve

    The stock market has been a really tough one this past year, but I watched an interview on CNBC where the anchor kept mentioning "KATRINA VANRENSUM ". This prompted me to get in touch with her, and from August 2022 till now we have been working together, and I can now boast of $540,000 in my trading portfolio.

  6. LL Armstrong

    A vid predicting a recession! How shocking!

  7. TchallaSon

    Instead of constantly predicting a recession how about we do something to prevent it.

  8. Alfred Thomas

    <<Don't take your eyes off the PRIZE ….. no matter what the distractions maybe be around you. UNDERSTAND YOUR PURPOSE, I went from living an average life to making over 63k per month. It's amazing. The financial markets are full with opportunities, but I've learned a lot over the past few years to doubt that. The key is knowing where to focus. Well appreciated, Rodger Michael Karl.

  9. Bailey Powell

    <Just do something that will earn you money while you sleep, no matter how little. The pandemic is the perfect way to open your eyes to really see what life could be like without your usual income stream and everyone had to stay at home. Well I never felt it because I invested in a trading company where I earn 4 digits per week. The best thing you can do for yourself is invest more and spend less.

  10. Handsome_Hero

    At least this talkinghead was honest 'I don't know'. If only they would all be so honest.

  11. Lemarie Cooper

    Instead of trying to predict whether or not we’re going into more recession and keep losing your money, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every quarter according to Bloomberg.

  12. Richard Extall

    Second half of this year will be a hard fall.

  13. Marinette Delévaux

    <<<I am so fortunate that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mum living in Toronto Canada who bought my second home in September and is hoping to retire next year at 50 if things continue to go smoothly for me>>>>

  14. Clara Lynn

    According to certain economists, it's possible that the U.S. and certain parts of Europe might experience a recession at some point in 2023. Although a global recession, which is characterized by a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of emerging markets like China, in comparison to developed economies. Basically, if economic growth lags behind population growth, it's considered that the global economy is in a state of recession.

  15. Michael

    Stocks to buy in this crap. Riot, kingross stock, gold, coke cola,

  16. Daniel Hutchinson

    Why are BRICS Walls never mentioned?
    Will the US Economy be too heavy to clear the BRICS Wall?
    BRICS Bucks are coming in August.
    Saudis pulled cash from Credit Suisse.
    Suppose that is going to a BRICS Bank?
    The Southern Hemisphere Nations trading with the BRICS Guys
    might be responsible for some commodity price increase…..
    So why not discuss BRICS?

  17. Farmer John

    Fed printing money led to inflation.

    Inflation led to the fed increasing rates.

    Higher rates led to lower bond prices

    Lower bond prices led to bank losses

    Bank losses led to bank collapse

    Bank collapse led to fed bail outs

    Fed bailouts led to printing money

    Back to step 1

    The only solution is to lower rates and for the government to increase taxes on everyone. Enough to slow the economy.

  18. phillips wright

    Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today……

  19. Aaron

    As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.

  20. JACK LONDON

    WRONG. it all started with INFLATION. not drilling OIL in america creates strife and war. 3 years ago everything and everyone was cool. even SBF lol.

  21. Native Advisors

    We think the country has to look at an alternative, as part of our economic tools, cascade into failure. One of the best options, and one of the only options, is with a sovereign American Indian monetary financial system. This will be a new emerging market over the next five years.

  22. Parrish

    We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.

  23. Ryan

    There must be a gentlemans agreement to not admit we are in a recession

  24. Raul Izquierdo

    housing purchase has come to an end no one is looking to buy a house to an end the auto indurstry overpriced cars food prices through the roof , we are heading to hyperinflation thanks fed. grab your ankles . the past recessions have come on the heals of a lack of intrest due to costs in housing and goods and we are that that point. banks and corporations buying land and gentrifying certain parts of cities and outpricing just about everyone be it homes or apartments. what did you expect. ? 2008 will look like a wedding party.

  25. All_Churros

    I’m closing in on retirement and I'd like to move to Hawaii where the climate is warm, tho home prices are absurd and mortgage rates skyrocketing on a roll. With the coming recession, do I just invest spare cash of 250k into stock and wait for a housing crash, or go ahead to buy a home anyways?

  26. Michał Domozych

    This comment is golden: "Regional banks have only 40% of the countries deposits, they do 50% of the lending, whether they lend here or there is beside the point". I don't know wether to laugh or cry 😀

  27. Al Phar

    Is the recession in the room with you right now?

  28. DUC HUY

    OPEC has been mum, so suspect Biden is buying a little to refill SPR.

  29. Virgil Palmer

    Americans hate these people that go around telling everyone that there is no recession..
    It's hitting us all, while they live in ivory towers ..

  30. stunna2ash

    The rich never get poor. The poor are expendable.

  31. I

    Unfortunately, we Can't undo
    Peter Thiel/f's Psychopathic
    Tweet/thread.

  32. Tom

    Oil keeps dropping! Winning

  33. Ryan

    This Dan is such crap. Bring in Dan Niles!

  34. Bill Pickford

    The shoe dropping is called bitcoin

  35. Martin Morris

    There is no position as this a disaster.Any person telling to buy any majority position anything is irresponsible

  36. Steve G

    This is the weak season for oil, it alway drops till April. Then it goes up into summer

  37. Doc Brown

    Furthermore, just as they did not think it worthwhile to retain the knowledge of God, so God gave them over to a depraved mind, so that they do what ought not to be done. They have become filled with every kind of wickedness, evil, greed and depravity. They are full of envy, murder, strife, deceit and malice. They are gossips, slanderers, God-haters, insolent, arrogant and boastful; they invent ways of doing evil; they disobey their parents; they have no understanding, no fidelity, no love, no mercy. Although they know God’s righteous decree that those who do such things deserve death, they not only continue to do these very things but also approve of those who practice them.

  38. Patrick Harrison

    Yeah why does everyone get on TV acting like we are not going to have a recession?

  39. Patrick Harrison

    Gold also surging too. Gold does really well before recession

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