David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, discusses his outlook for the economy, interest rates, and stock markets.
*This video was recorded on May 8, 2023
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0:00 – Intro
1:10 – Recession outlook
5:10 – Labor market
9:50 – Wages vs. inflation
15:37 – Equity markets outlook
19:00 – 25% decline on stocks?
22:26 – Interest rate outlook
29:40 – When will Fed pivot?
35:00 – Consumer debt
37:53 – David Rosenberg
#economy #investing #stocks…(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
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Interest Rates Returning To 0%, Stocks To Fall 25% As Recession Hits | David Rosenberg
It seems that the global economy is in for some stormy weather ahead as renowned economist David Rosenberg predicts that interest rates will return to 0% and stocks will plummet by 25% due to an impending recession. Rosenberg’s forecast has gained significant attention and has left investors and analysts questioning the stability of the market.
Rosenberg, known for his accurate predictions during the 2008 financial crisis, suggests that central banks around the world will have no other option but to reduce interest rates back to near-zero levels, similar to what we saw in the aftermath of the housing market crash. This move aims to stimulate borrowing and spending in order to revive a struggling economy.
The current economic landscape is indeed troubling, with the ongoing trade war between the United States and China causing uncertainty and hampering global growth. Moreover, signs of an impending recession are becoming increasingly apparent, with countries like Germany already experiencing negative growth and manufacturing sectors across the board showing signs of contraction.
The recent inversion of the yield curve has also triggered alarm bells. An inverted yield curve, which occurs when long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates, has historically been a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession. This inversion has been seen as a strong signal that investors are losing faith in the future prospects of the economy.
Rosenberg’s prediction of a 25% drop in the stock market should not be taken lightly. It is worth noting that during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by approximately 57%. Although the drop Rosenberg is forecasting may not be as severe, a 25% decline would undoubtedly have a significant impact on investors’ portfolios and on consumer confidence as a whole.
The impact of falling interest rates and declining stock prices could have far-reaching consequences. Lower interest rates would put downward pressure on bank profits, potentially leading to a credit crunch and tighter lending conditions. This, in turn, could impact businesses’ ability to invest, expand, or hire, thus exacerbating the economic downturn. Falling stock prices could also negatively affect consumer spending, as individuals may feel less wealthy and more hesitant to make significant purchases.
However, it is important to remember that economic predictions do not always come to fruition. While Rosenberg’s track record suggests that he is worth listening to, it is impossible to predict the exact timing and severity of a recession. Central banks and governments continue to implement measures to support economic growth, and adjustments to monetary and fiscal policies could potentially mitigate some of the negative effects predicted by Rosenberg.
In conclusion, the forecast of interest rates returning to 0% and stocks falling by 25% as a recession hits has sent shockwaves through the financial world. While some may view Rosenberg’s predictions with skepticism, his past accuracy and the current economic indicators warrant careful consideration. Investors and individuals should remain vigilant, monitor economic developments closely, and take appropriate measures to protect their investments and financial well-being during these uncertain times.
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No ways
I have a feeling Rosenberg "protected his investors" from all the gains this year.
Rosie is so bad these days.
I use my credit cards constantly for the rewards point only if not for that I wouldn't even bother. By the end of year I have christmas presents paid for all of my family… but the delinquency rates are really bothersome.
Anyone who thinks we will go to 0% interest, you are completely deceiving yourselves. The fed can’t unless they want ridiculous inflation, a strong recession, and a very devalued dollar which the globe is dumping rapidly.
My $750k portfolio is now down to $492k. "How can I profit from the current market?" I mean, I've heard of folks getting up to $350,000 in a couple weeks during this downturn, and I'd like to know how.
David David David this guy is as wrong as Cramer is! Call these people out
Memories are short when it comes to the economy. Rates were basically zero only 16 months ago. And can easily drop back to zero in 6 months.
Bullets in the chamber is it.
The fed needed ammo to fight the inevitable recession post pandemic and money supply.
Inflation is the scapegoat but it was a deliberate side effect of saving the economy due to lockdowns.
Completely wrong. Interest rates have to remain high because they pumped so much money into the system that it's like a fully loaded truck going downhill. As soon as you take your foot off of the brake, it starts to accelerate again. The only option is to keep your foot on the brake
The one thing we know about Powell is he doesn’t want to be remembered as Arthur Burns!
This video did not age well.
Please have him back on now
No way no way …free money will put people in more debt
This aged poorly.
Amazing how these noodles come out with their predictions and when half of them are wrong they just ignore it. I can do that
How is rosy so popular, he is always wrong
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Maria Reyes.
The youtube cops on my tail so to speak. Now instead of encrypting the logistical meanings I’ve chosen to tell total lies instead. I was really born a talking chipmunk. I love zero interest rates and sleeping in the park while I count all my pennies in my jar. The forefront is now my sig file.
These predictions were so wrong. Rates are heading higher
Only thing I could disagree with is the timetable. Based on averages, I think it will be well into 2025 before rates drop significantly.
Raising interest rates is just another form of taxation without representation.
It’s interesting he doesn’t touch much on m2 or the idea we need to revert to mean … seems he’s in a similar school to Mike Wilson possibly it’s the diff between the bear vs perms bears … the fundamentals aren’t really a problem it an issue rather of timing the cycle. Whereas the permabears think we’re basically screwed and it’s not going to work itself out in a few quarters and we’ll be off to the races again!
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
This a bullshit from Rosenberg.
No way ..
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Two part time jobs, Is not two jobs !
HYPERINFLATION happens if rates go to ZERO. MILITARY DRAFT THOSE EQUAL AMERICAN WOMEN. IT'S THEIR RIGHT TO EQUAL JUSTICE
I love these idiots who study historians economics
Your idiots because history is never the same because did anyone call Covid Nsos they ever give people trillions of dollars No so everything you study just history
It’s like idiot BernKe And depression
That was like Stone Age fist off no one had internet and no one had credit cards and no one had easy mortgages it’s just gas no meaning on modern times
This guys a bozo why not you interview a homeless guy prob better results
Oil is being artificially held down and inflation being held down with it . Inflation will come back not disappear..this man is wrong
A nother dumb …
F U
Wrong again Rosenberg. Market up significantly since this interview aired. He has been wrong on interest rates for a year. The man has no timing.
Interest rates can’t fall because know one will buy bonds and the fed needs to sell bonds.
I'm having a bad year; META is down by $40k, ALLP is down by $35k, Draft Kings is down by $6k, NIO is down by $15K, ABML is down by $8K, and my wife is unaware. I'm only clinging to Jim Cramer's advice regarding opportunities during erratic market conditions in the hopes that I can either wait for a recovery or choose profitable investments to make up for my loss.
Rosenberg just dreams about 0% because he's trying to save his behind
If interest rates go to 0% in the next year it will cause hyperinflation
Disclaimer: decades of over-bearish calls is the reason this guy is in his basement
yeah, let's all PRETEND like the REAL annual rate of inflation aint 15% and it wasn't 18% for the two previous years and that loss is AFTER tax is removed. 20% tax on capital gains. So if your investment has had a 3 year average rate of return ( SOMEHOW) of 12% return, you pay 3% in taxes, that leaves 9% and the average rate of inflation has been 17%, you LOST 8% and you funded our enemy, the state, again and again, while gaining nothing for the risks you took with your money. By holding gold, I lose little or nothing to inflation. When I sell gold (to private parties) nobody knows about it and it's un-taxed. Thus, I"m not funding my enemy and i"m much better off, while taking very little risk. If I can't clear 100% on an investment, with a major hedge vs inflation and a good chance of hiding a lot of my income from the tax man, I dont put my money into that field. So far, the only thing that meets my criteria has been boarding houses, a dozen small rooms made out of one large old house. I buy such places with some Vet's VA home loan, (no down payment, no PMI) and use a very strict "sober living" contract with each tenant, to include a 10% per year inflation clause. That of course doesn't cover all of the inflation losses, but it's all I can get-away with. This only works in cities near big military bases, with good sized colleges that have lots of foreign students. Those two things are what guarantee me a waiting list of good tenants. I rent out my 60 sq ft rooms for $10 per week less than the cheapest motels (by the week) and I offer free wifi and free washers/dryers.Most of my tenants dont have vehicles, so laundry day means $20. Wifi means another $15 per week, too. So my rooms are basically $50 per week cheaper than any place else in town. My 12 rooms (average per boarding house) clear me 20k per year, and I've got 3 such places. I got into the first one with 20k from saved college loans. When I'd saved that much from running the first one, I opened another, then the last one. When you dont count my time, I make a clear 200% profit on my original investment
Fed funds 2%. 30yr 5%+. Normal curve. Expect YCC. LONG END WILL WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER.
For the umpteenth time….we are already in a recession.
Investors can’t predict the future, bearish periods automatically give way for a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a new profitable uptrend. I have come across articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to put on a watch list or buy at the moment?