On today’s episode of On The Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show for a discussion on the mounting recessionary headwinds that signal towards a recession in the second half of 2023. Arguing that “recession is a 2023 story”, David walks through the leading indicators that suggest a slowdown could be on the very near horizon. To hear all this and more, you’ll have to tune in!
—
Follow David:
Follow On The Margin:
Follow Mike:
Follow Blockworks:
—
Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity
Click here to learn more about Blockworks’ upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts!
—
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code “MARGIN10” for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research
—
Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets….(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
The Incoming Recession Is A 2023 Story: David Rosenberg
As the global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing concern about the possibility of an incoming recession. According to renowned economist David Rosenberg, this recession is not a matter of if, but rather a matter of when, with 2023 being the likely year for this economic downturn.
Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, has a proven track record of accurately predicting previous economic crises, including the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, his insights on the potential timing and impact of the next recession carry weight and deserve attention.
The first question that arises is why 2023? Rosenberg argues that the current economic recovery, fueled by massive government stimulus and accommodative monetary policies, is unsustainable in the long term. These measures have undoubtedly provided a lifeline to struggling businesses and individuals, but they have come at a cost.
Although the stimulus packages and low interest rates have helped prevent a complete economic collapse, they have also created significant imbalances in the economy. Financial markets have become detached from the underlying fundamentals, with stock prices reaching all-time highs despite many businesses still struggling to regain pre-pandemic levels of profitability.
Rosenberg points out that the fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the pandemic have merely delayed, rather than eliminated, the pain. As stimulus measures begin to taper off and interest rates inevitably rise, these imbalances will become more apparent, leading to a correction in financial markets and a subsequent economic downturn.
One key concern highlighted by Rosenberg is the excessive levels of debt accumulated by both governments and corporations. The pandemic forced governments to take on unprecedented levels of debt to finance their stimulus measures and support struggling industries. At the same time, many corporations have borrowed heavily to weather the storm and avoid bankruptcy.
As the economy enters a phase of normalization, these debt burdens will become increasingly burdensome. Governments will face mounting pressure to rein in spending and reduce debt levels, which could result in austerity measures that slow down economic growth. Similarly, heavily indebted corporations will struggle to invest, innovate, and create jobs, leading to economic sluggishness.
Another factor contributing to Rosenberg’s prediction is the structural changes brought about by the pandemic. Many industries have undergone profound transformations that will have lasting effects on employment and productivity. The accelerated adoption of technology and automation, for example, may permanently displace certain jobs and industries, exacerbating income inequality and hindering overall economic growth.
Moreover, the demographic challenges faced by several advanced economies, such as an aging population and declining birth rates, also contribute to the potential economic headwinds. These factors limit the potential for robust economic expansion and create additional strains on government budgets.
While Rosenberg’s outlook may seem gloomy, it is important to remember that his analysis is based on historical patterns and economic indicators. Predicting the future is always challenging, and unforeseen events could alter the timing and severity of the next recession.
Nevertheless, preparing for a potential recession is crucial for individuals and businesses alike. Maintaining a conservative financial approach, reducing unnecessary debts, and diversifying investments can help mitigate the risks associated with an economic downturn.
In conclusion, David Rosenberg’s prediction of an incoming recession in 2023 is based on alarm bells ringing in various aspects of the global economy. The imbalances created by extensive government stimulus, excessive debt levels, structural changes, and demographic challenges make the next recession more a matter of ‘when’ than ‘if.’ As we move forward, it is essential to heed these warnings and take proactive steps to safeguard our financial well-being in the face of a potential economic downturn.
In light of the impending recession and the fact that inflation is still far higher than the Fed's 2% target, several of the most prominent market analysts have been expressing their views on how terrible they believe the next downturn will be and how far stocks may have to fall. I need advice on what investments to make because I'm attempting to create a portfolio for my children that will at least be $850k in value.
too many ads by both youtube and the host along with his peanut gallery commentary ADIOS MOCHACHOS!!
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
How much is going on? What is it important? That they are going to eat whatever they see.
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
So I remember I just got married and got my first home few months before the crash happened in 2008, with huge mortgage loans, of course, and a couple tens of thousands of dollars in the stock market, which got wiped out while I lost my home. It really ruined my finances. I have since recovered, and have been able to build up to $380k again in portfolio, but I can see the trend again, and I'm really worried about how to protect my finance this time around.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly—which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125,000 bond/stock portfolio…
Say it! They are pos. Evil pos
They move the rate when the wealthy say.
The first mistake is that these id*0ts who work at the FED never pump their own gas, they never go to the supermarket, they are totally disconnected from the real economy.
Collapsing economies are the financial opportunities of a lifetime…
Chance Favors The Prepared Mind….
Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Dave's Liberal friends are ruining the country. Dave's Democratic Party having a meeting in Minneapolis. See
YOUTUBE 'Wild Brawls and Chaos Breaks out at Democratic Convention'. C'mon Dave time to switch parties at a minimum. Say something or be branded an enemy or a scardy-cat. All the Liberal Legal mongers (your pals) who are too liberal gave so many rights to woman that 50% of men no longer want them. Something is going wrong.
As it stands I wonder if your silence is corrupt. Things are so rotten that men like you must speak out against the wacky left.
I shocked that this channel discovered a possible solution for COE. I wont say it. Keep it secret. I will say if paid 16k
America is done. All signs suggest that 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation. Put those money to work now to make it grow. I knew I had to invest. I didn't think a few Thousand dollars a month would add up. But it is. From 2020 to date, I have made around $600,000
A one way unchallenged pro Central Bank rant. Who owns the Fed?
I'm not kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it, Investing is a long-term game, so I try to focus on the long term.
Everyone has been preaching "buy now, stocks are at a discount" but I've been buying stocks since the beginning of the year and yet nothing's changed, but I've been reading articles of people still in the same market pulling off over 350k in just a couple months, what am i doing wrong?
The fin-Market have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
He reads vociferously lol…
Even if the pig is perfectly made up. It remains a pig.
Put them books back the way they should be we are aware of your reading prowess
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Greenspan may have been brilliant, but he was a brilliant disaster then. I still remember when he held rates low years into an already expanding economy. I am not brilliant and not an economist but even as a layman i was shocked how irresponsible and dumb that was at the time.
volker and greenspan are idiots. They fail to understand Modern monetary theory. volcker destroyed the economy with high interest rates
Thanks guys!
As someone that’s not an economist, I do study and listen to all of the greatest. We have printed too much money. He talks about the recession. We will be fortunate if a recession is the only word that is said. It’s looking like we are heading for a depression that’s worse than 1929. The only way to stop what is coming is to increase revenue and since we exported all of our production, there is only one way to increase revenue and that is our oil and gas. We need to ramp up and restore our oil and gas and export it to Europe. If people would look at the United States as a large corporation that you own cometh the 2024 election, who would you trust to run it and make money? Political and social ideology needs to be thrown out the window. We are on the verge of becoming Venezuela. Do you know what happened to the Venezuelan economy? People were burning the paper money and eating anything they could find. I think it may be too late. Question is. Was this intentional? Intentional to collapse the U.S. economy, knock the dollar out of being the reserve currency? Is it the fourth turning? Is it to help China move into our spot? Either way, spending has to be cut and revenue increased. I think David is being overly optimistic and I hope he is correct. Let's see. In the meantime, I would have a few months of food and water stockpiled.
Wow.
Very professional
Thank you
Too many Banksters… eliminate the blood sucking squids. FED NOW is all we need.
Money Printing and new spending habits will require higher rates and recession to stop inflation. Human nature ( bad habits ) is the root cause
( spend every penny anyone is willing to lend you as quickly as possible to satisfy a need to buy what I want as opposed to what I need )
unfortunately the poor will suffer more than the spend thrifts….
Despite his claim of No recession in 2001, we still had the DOT COM market crash, combined with 9/11.
They got up to about 6.5% and paused into 2001 and they still had to cut rates or else there would have been a recession. Greenspan intentionally tried to help Bush Jr.'s election term since they were friends.
If anything Greenspan was lucky because the monetary conditions were arguably better during his hiking and cutting cycles, unfortunately he set the trend for all of the Fed chairs after him.
What is ERP?
I wish i learnt most of these principles about seven years ago. A lot of people have been trapped strongly in the matrix– Go to school, get a job, and then slave your whole life. Many miss out on life-changing information that could have great effect on their finances. I played with the stock market sometime in 2020, and I was surprised at how well it turned out. I want to put in $90k more into the market. I heard people are making really great returns despite the downturn. Any recommendations?
Making money is not the same as keeping it there is a reason why investments aren't well taught in schools, the examples you gave are well stationed, the market crisis gave me my first millions, people shy away from hard times, I embrace them.. well at least my advisor does l
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Thanks. Can't go wrong with Rosenberg.