David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable there are some metrics suggesting the economy is already in a recession.
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David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, has recently made headlines by declaring that the recession has already begun. In a recent interview, Rosenberg shared his concerns about the state of the global economy and warned that the signs of an impending recession are all around us.
Rosenberg pointed to several troubling indicators that suggest the economy is already in a downturn. One of the most concerning factors is the yield curve, which has inverted multiple times in the past year. An inverted yield curve, where long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates, is often seen as a reliable predictor of an impending recession.
In addition, Rosenberg highlighted the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China as a major threat to global economic stability. The ongoing trade war has already had a significant impact on both countries’ economies, and the uncertainty surrounding future trade negotiations is causing businesses to postpone investments and hiring decisions.
Furthermore, Rosenberg expressed concerns about the slowing growth in key economic indicators such as manufacturing and consumer spending. He noted that the manufacturing sector has been hit hard by the trade war, with many companies reporting declining orders and reduced production. Consumer spending, which has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years, has also shown signs of weakening, as households are becoming more cautious in their spending habits.
Rosenberg’s warning of an impending recession has sent shockwaves through the financial markets, with many investors now bracing for a potential downturn. However, some analysts have pushed back against Rosenberg’s gloomy outlook, arguing that the global economy is still in a relatively healthy state, with unemployment at historically low levels and consumer confidence remaining high.
Regardless of the validity of Rosenberg’s prediction, his warnings serve as a reminder of the fragility of the global economy. In an increasingly interconnected world, economic downturns in one country can quickly spread to others, leading to a domino effect of recession and financial instability.
As policymakers and central banks around the world grapple with the challenges of trade tensions, slowing growth, and geopolitical uncertainty, it is clear that the global economy is at a critical juncture. Whether Rosenberg’s prediction of an impending recession comes to fruition remains to be seen, but his concerns should serve as a wake-up call for all stakeholders to take proactive measures to safeguard against the potential fallout of an economic downturn.
In every crisis, there is an opportunity," as the saying goes. The 2024 recession, while challenging, presents unique avenues to amass wealth. First, it's essential to remember Warren Buffet's advice: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." During recessions, assets often undervalue. By investing wisely in stocks, real estate, or businesses during this downturn, you position yourself for significant returns during the economic recovery.
Given reduced inflation signals and the belief that the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance overall performance through diversification?
Sure Trump Boy GDP grew at 4.9 pct. You hope we have a Recession Boy
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly—which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
With inflation running at a four-decade high, the Recession is now the ‘most likely outcome for the economy and I cannot imagine being a victim of circumstances. My portfolio suffered a big hit, holding it further won’t be any good. I've heard of people netting hundreds of thousands this red season. How can I ensure this?
Meanwhile – financial times writing post of “maybe rate cuts” haha !
The only thing you can do is make sure you're ready and plan accordingly because recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. I began my career during a recession (2009). Aerial acrobatics on cruise ships was my first job out of college. I've developed my own business, am a vice president at a large corporation, own three rental homes, invest in stocks and businesses, and have seen a growth in my net worth of two million dollars over the past four years.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
Just saw the article on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Honestly, it's times like these that remind me how impactful having the right guidance can be. I started with basic knowledge, but with expert advice, I've seen my portfolio grow exponentially. It's like living a dream where you're achieving your financial goals faster than you thought possible, and with minimal effort on your part.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly—which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio
Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
This global collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 9%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
The Bank of Canada excludes mortgage interest costs in its calculation of core inflation, Mr. Rosenberg is incorrect about core inflation “actually” being 2.1%. Well, he is only correct if you subtract mortgage interest costs twice.
I’ve had majority of my holdings in tech stocks and irrespective of the recession, I’ve done pretty well especially with apple’s P/E(price to earnings ratio) gaining over 30% this past decade, now my questions is what stocks do you think will be the next apple in terms of growth for the next decade.
I'm really between the devil and the deep blue sea, is this really a good time to buy? Folks are screaming "Dead cat bounce" Do I just wait and buy after continuation after rally when things go back down? My reserve of $450K is laying waste to inflation and I don't know what to do at this point tbh, I need solid data on market trajectory.
Overly restrictive? What a joke. We are suffering from years of irresponsibility by the government. Inflation is on target? Freaking idiot
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
We experienced the peak of our era, and now it is gone. Recession is tanking everything including 401K. My retirement equities portfolio of $750K is in the reds. I keep losing because of inflation. This world will fall to the corrupt rulers in the same way that Rome did. I'm sorry if you're thinking about retiring and you're worried that your pension won't be enough to meet the rising cost of living. Horrible foreign policies everywhere, bad regulatory policy, bad fiscal policy, and bad energy policy.
Its really ridiculous. Simple and straightforward, the interest rates have nothing to do with inflation in Canada, simply because most of goods priced are imported and the price are not set in Canada. Which si also why any amount of rate hikes is not denting prices. Why dont these bookworms get this simple common sense thing
I used to think every investor lose out during recession, meanwhile some make millions. I also thought everybody went out of business during the great depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always depression for some, and profits for others. it all starts with having the right mindset. That said, I've set aside $265k for future, unfortunately I'm a complete noob.