A couple of years ago, I wrote an article titled “The Silent Recession: Are We Headed for Trouble?” in which I raised concerns about the state of the economy and the potential for a recession to be looming on the horizon. At the time, many economic indicators seemed to be flashing warning signs, with slowing growth, stagnant wage growth, and a volatile stock market causing concern among investors and policymakers alike.
However, as time has passed, it appears that my concerns may have been somewhat premature. The economy has continued to chug along, with steady growth, low unemployment, and a booming stock market. While there have been some bumps in the road, such as the trade war with China and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the overall picture has been one of resilience and strength.
So, was I wrong about the silent recession? In some ways, yes. While there were certainly reasons to be concerned about the state of the economy at the time, it seems that those concerns may have been overblown. The economy has proven to be more durable than many had anticipated, with strong consumer spending, robust job growth, and low inflation all helping to keep the economy on track.
That being said, it’s important to remember that the economy is always subject to change, and there are still potential risks on the horizon. The ongoing pandemic, for example, continues to pose a threat to economic stability, as does the ongoing trade tensions with China and other major trading partners. In addition, there are always unforeseen events that can impact the economy, such as natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or other unexpected shocks.
Ultimately, while the economy may have proven to be more resilient than we initially thought, it’s important to remain vigilant and keep a close eye on economic indicators. While it’s always tempting to make predictions about the future, the truth is that the economy is a complex and dynamic system that is subject to a wide range of factors. As such, it’s always best to approach economic forecasting with a healthy dose of caution and humility.
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Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
The looming issue isn't currently too much inflation, but potentially too little inflation. The gov wants inflation, at a reasonable level, as it's the easiest way to negate the effects of that government debt. Debt in today's numbers means less in 20 years time if inflation has eaten away at the value of today currency by then. So lower interest rates means easier debt servicing mixed with a reasonable measure of inflation to destroy the future value of that debt.
The 6 month annualiased inflation figure is around the 2% mark now, which was their stated "target", but I think in reality they want inflation to establish somewhere around the 3-3.2% mark.
I also think 7 rate cuts in silly talk. Maybe 4. Maybe.
Paul needs to stop trying to time the market. He's not so good at it.
If you want a rate cut in this economy you’re either ignorant or you have an agenda. Personally I love getting guaranteed 4.5-5% returns on cash. I get that it seems like it’s making buying a house or a car much more difficult. But in this economy what do you think will happen if rates were to drop? Sure your interest on your loan will be lower but the size of the loan you’ll have to take out will be much bigger when prices skyrocket again.
If consumers are making more money and economy hag a 65% gdp growth. Why is credit card debt at ath savings accounts at all time lows , record credit card delinquencies and mortgage loan delinquencies? Makes absolutely zero sense. I’m lost at to how markets keep making ATHs
Am I the only one that started counting how many times he circled and erased the same number?
Growth less than the rate of inflation isn't really growth. Math.