Frances Donald, global chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management, gives her outlook for the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision today, and speaks toward the economic pictures in Canada and the US.
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The global economy is facing significant challenges as several major economies show signs of weakening. According to recent analysis by economists, China is weakening, Europe is in recession, Canada is likely in recession, and the United States is experiencing a downfall.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been showing signs of slowing growth for some time. The ongoing trade war with the United States has put pressure on China’s economy, leading to a decrease in manufacturing and export activity. Additionally, China’s high debt levels and efforts to deleverage its economy have also contributed to its weakened state.
In Europe, several countries are currently in recession, including Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. Germany’s economy contracted in the second quarter of 2019, and fears of a broader recession within the Eurozone are mounting. Brexit uncertainty, trade tensions, and a global economic slowdown have all contributed to the economic woes in Europe.
In Canada, there are growing concerns that the economy may be heading into a recession. A significant decline in investment spending, a slowdown in the housing market, and weaker consumer spending are all contributing to the economic uncertainty in the country. Additionally, Canada’s reliance on the energy sector, which has been facing its own challenges, has further dampened economic prospects.
The United States, the world’s largest economy, is also facing its own set of challenges. Despite strong job growth and consumer spending, there are signs of a slowdown in manufacturing and business investment. The escalating trade war with China, as well as other major trading partners, has led to uncertainty and volatility in the markets.
The findings and analysis of these economists paint a grim picture of the global economy. With major economies showing signs of weakening or contraction, there are concerns about the potential impact on global growth and trade. The interconnectedness of the global economy means that economic troubles in one country can have a ripple effect across the world.
This economic downturn could have far-reaching implications for businesses, investors, and individuals around the world. It may lead to decreased global trade, investment, and economic activity, and could even lead to a full-blown global recession.
Governments and policymakers will need to take decisive action to address the current economic challenges and prevent further deterioration of the global economy. International cooperation and coordination will be crucial in navigating these uncertain economic times and finding solutions to the current economic woes. Only time will tell how these economies will recover and regain their footing in the global economic landscape.
Worse the news or expectations are, the better the stock market is..
News like this only makes consumers in America spend more cash.
.
Good Speaker, you have to remember your dollar loses about 7.4% of its value every year.
India stands with progress.
High interest rates are only bad for those with high DEBT… But the problem is ZOMBIE corporations who live off of debt!
I like her. She made a really good points.
Nuestros padres al menos tenían comida y servicios basicos, apenas con sueldo mínimo y sin profesión y la clase media podía pagar holgadamente una primera vivienda.
Hoy en día comes 1/4 del pasado a precio inflación y las casas bancarias NO TIENEN PARA DAR CRÉDITO, quieren efectivo y nadie de la clase media tiene para las carísimas casas o propiedades nuevas de con suerte 1 baño a precio de casa millonaria. Se está extinguiendo el dinero físico, pero cada vez la transición será a dinero virtual y el dinero físico valdrá bastante, pero no para nosotros, sino para la vieja escuela
India only high growth story..canada made india enemy
… but otherwise everything is just grand, right???
An economist who actually knows what she is talking about. Not like all those other Keynsian spin doctors.
It is a blunder ! Only China is in deep and long crisis !
Wow … this didn't age well only hours later. Fed said interest rates will be higher for longer.
why is not everybody talking about this
Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make over $22,000 every single week☀️
Definitely in a recession. Look at GDP per capita. If it weren't for immigrants Canada's GDP wouldn't be only -0,2% and 0%
Stupid economists,
Interest rates must go up more to kill inflation and bring real estate prices back to earth, otherwise will never go back to normal life.
I hate Trudeau!!!
F em all… It's time to start putting an end to this… Get your pitch forks and torches ready. We gonna have us some hangins… 😀
As we witness the current economic landscape, it's becoming increasingly clear that we're entering a recession. These times can pose significant financial challenges.
US will bounce back
So why are prices not going down?
How is China's economy?
According to the IMF, China will generate over 34% of the global growth this year (2023).
China's share of Global GDP is 50% higher than US. In 1980, China's share of global GDP was less than 3%. Last year (2022), China's share of global GDP increased over 6 times to over 18%. The US's share of the Global GDP has dropped to 12.4%, lower than China's.
China has been the largest IPO market in terms of fundraising for more than five quarters. It raised USD33.4 billion YTD (July 2023). In the same period, US raised USD8.8 billion, Europe USD4.7 billion, India USD2.1 billion, Taiwan LESS THAN USD1 billion, UK LESS THAN USD1 billion, and Canada USD0.1 billion.
China fundraised YTD in 2023 is 3 times over US, 15 times over India and 334 times over Taiwan State.
Its GDP of Q1 2023 grew 4.5% yoy. In the same period, UK GDP was 0.1% growth, South Korea GDP was 0.3% growth, USA GDP was 1.3% growth, India GDP was 1.9% growth, and Canada was 0.8% growth.
Q2 2023 QOQ of China was 6.3%.
The foreign direct investment of China Q1 grew by 4.9%, India dropped 27%, and the US declined 25% QOQ.
BRICS, which China and Russia lead, has larger combined GDP than G7 countries since 2020.
In 2018, China was the top trading partner of over 124 countries. Last year (2022), China became the top trading partner of over 141 countries.
CCP are heaven-sent guardians of Chinese ancestors' land.
China is already leading in electric vehicles. It accounted for over 59% of global EVs last year (2022).
China is also leading in green energy. It is the world's largest producer of solar and wind power. Over 43% of China's power generation is from renewable energy, and less than 14% of US energy is renewable.
China has to map its exchange rates with the Global South Countries to maintain its leading trading relationship. The exchange rate with the USD has become less critical because most countries are de-dollarizing and avoid using SWIFT.
Those China's companies that borrowed USD have to bear their own fate. China is moving to other currencies.
What weakness could be strength if free trade established and welcoming new overseas immigrants. China should focus on innovation and mass marketing scale to sale services and products around the world. For example, Huawei and BYD other similar type of companies. There are 8 billion global consumers not declining population.
Free trade = outsourcing the middle class. Brian baloney screwed us 30 years ago…
She is impressive..
lol this chief economist is out to lunch
She is a good guest
It will be 0 cuts in 2024. I hope. Fed funds rate at 5% is NORMAL! 8% mortgage is NORMAL! for the past 50 years this is considered a normal level. If you can't afford stuff at 8% then STOP SPENDING MORON!
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
When you have an organization that specializes in analyzing economic numbers saying stuff like "Canada’s probably in recession", you know that the global financial system is nothing short of a joke, made to serve the rich and powerful. Canada IS in recession according to all of Canadas own GDP metrics. The end.
These guys are pumping the market like Realtors… we're in a huge depression now, and this news outfit playing it down. Trying to offload houses first? Lolol
Canada, u.s, Europe are china's biggest customers China economy as a slowdown (aka still growth) the reason they are experiencing a slowdown is that their big trade partners (CAN,U.S,Europe) are going under.
Canada has lots of oil and gasoline. But the liberal government put son much red tape on our resources
That was a good guest, on point.
In summary, the whole world's economy is in a slump.
Nope, it's 2. Wrong prediction.
Liberal/ndp caused all these suffering
The best comments in months. Could not agree more. Inflation is gone. I can see that on the ground. CPI is irrellavent. And yet everybody is relying on it.