Economist predicts two additional Fed rate increases on the horizon

by | Jun 7, 2023 | Invest During Inflation

Economist predicts two additional Fed rate increases on the horizon




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Markets have begun factoring in an interest rate pause ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Citi Economist Veronica Clark spoke with Yahoo Finance Live anchors Seana Smith and Diane King Hall to explain why she doesn’t think that is going to be the case. Clark believes the Fed will raise rates at both their June and July meetings.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve has been gradually raising interest rates since late 2015, but there’s still uncertainty about just how far the Fed will go.

One economist, however, thinks she has a pretty good idea.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, predicts that the Fed will raise interest rates twice more this year, but that this will be an indicator that the central bank is becoming cautious about the economy.

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Swonk explained her reasons for the prediction in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.

First, she said the Fed’s inflation target of 2 percent is nearing, and that the central bank doesn’t want to overshoot that target.

“They want to really kind of move on and be done with it,” Swonk said.

Second, Swonk said that the Fed is concerned about the potential for a trade war, which could hurt economic growth.

“There’s a risk to growth from trade, so they want to get everything done that they need to do before that risk blows up or gets worse,” she said.

Swonk’s prediction comes as the Fed wraps up its latest two-day policy meeting, with an announcement on interest rates due at 2 p.m. ET.

Most economists believe the Fed will keep rates steady on Wednesday, but many are expecting at least one more rate hike this year.

The Fed has raised interest rates twice so far in 2018, in March and June, and policymakers have signaled that they are likely to raise rates once or twice more this year.

But Swonk’s prediction of two rate hikes seems to be on the high side of analysts’ forecasts.

While some economists have suggested that the Fed could raise rates three or four times this year, most of the consensus appears to be around two or three hikes.

One notable outlier is Goldman Sachs, which predicts four rate hikes this year.

However many rate hikes there end up being, it’s clear that the Fed is taking a cautious approach as it tries to navigate a complex economic landscape.

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The central bank is trying to balance a strong labor market and solid economic growth against subdued inflation and a looming trade war.

It’s a difficult balancing act, and economists like Swonk will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s every move as they try to map out the course of monetary policy.

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