Roger Altman, Evercore founder and senior chairman, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the impact of the Wednesday’s 10th consecutive rate hike, how the Fed misjudged the tenacity of this inflation, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
We are going to have a ‘moderate’ recession in the second half of the year, says Evercore’s Altman
The global economy has been in a state of uncertainty and flux due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With countries struggling to contain the virus and economies experiencing significant disruptions, experts have been pondering the potential outcomes and predicting the future trajectory.
Evercore’s president and co-founder, Roger Altman, recently stated that he believes we are heading towards a moderate recession in the second half of the year. As a prominent investment banking advisory firm, Evercore’s insights hold significant weight in the financial community.
Altman’s prediction is based on a variety of factors that are currently at play. Firstly, the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and their potential impact on the efficacy of existing vaccines has raised concerns among public health officials and investors alike. As countries grapple with vaccination drives and the possibility of additional lockdowns or restrictions, economic recovery becomes uncertain.
Another factor contributing to Altman’s prediction is the global supply chain challenges. Throughout the pandemic, various industries have experienced disruptions, leading to shortages of essential goods and inflationary pressures. These disruptions have ranged from semiconductor shortages impacting the tech industry to container shipping delays affecting trade flows. The continuation of disrupted supply chains could impede economic growth in the latter half of the year.
Furthermore, Altman highlights the potential for reduced government stimulus as economies recover. Many countries implemented large-scale economic stimulus packages to cushion the impact of the pandemic. As the global economy gradually recovers, governments may cut back on these measures, leading to a reduction in consumer spending and subsequent economic slowdown.
Altman’s use of the term ‘moderate’ recession is worth noting. While the term recession typically generates concern, attaching ‘moderate’ to the prediction suggests a more manageable downturn compared to the severe recession experienced in 2020. This outlook provides some consolation but underscores the need for caution as we navigate the uncertain economic landscape.
It is important to note that Altman’s prediction is just one perspective among a multitude of forecasts. Other analysts may hold differing opinions, and the eventual outcome will depend on a variety of complex variables. Nonetheless, Altman’s track record and Evercore’s stature in the investment banking sector add credibility to his statements.
While the prediction of a ‘moderate’ recession may be concerning, it also serves as a call to action for governments, businesses, and individuals. By acknowledging the potential for economic challenges and preparing for them, we can mitigate some of the negative effects. Governments should prioritize continued support for their economies, striking a balance between curbing inflation and ensuring sustained growth. Businesses should focus on diversifying their supply chains to minimize the impact of disruptions, while individuals should remain cautious with their financial decisions.
In conclusion, Evercore’s Altman warns of a ‘moderate’ recession in the second half of the year. His prediction is based on a range of factors including the ongoing uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, supply chain challenges, and potential reductions in government stimulus. While the outlook may be concerning, preparations and proactive measures can help mitigate the impact and pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable recovery.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
They're putting people out of work that didnt benefit from inflation. They're asking the poor and middle class to take one for the team!
I am with CNBC here and think it's a tunnel view .Both psychological and stimulus related causes sounded very one sided.Inflation fueled up due to political and psychological war of world economic powers and resource holders.Supplier side of fuel and other factors of production .Trying to make blue coloured and average American pay higher in expense where richest of rich are moderately well off like Jeff Bezzo , Elon Musk and what not does also seem a little domestic politically motivated.Mostly white democratic voters are feeling the heat and election is looming in the horizon.Tackle the inflation by bringing down cost of supply or abundance of suppy specially of factors of production instead of trying to take money our of average Americans pocket.Use mix tools like supply abandoncy,cost cut, stimulus and strong government law enforcement of price ceiling and black market control
The fin-Market have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Finding moderation in FIAT based economy is a joke.
US FED'S MEGA MADOFF PONZI SCHEME IS DESTROYING EVERYTHING.
With the bank runs and backstop gaurantees it's clear HYPERINFLATION is here to stay FOREVER !
In the time of recession, frugal living is good and buy more gold…
Welcome to Brandon's America
You're problems may be systemic. If the types of jobs that you created over the past lost decades are trash jobs you'll not get out of problems. If all you've done is win votes or get facebook likes, that creates a systemic problem. that's the problem with Keynesian economics. If stimulus creates jobs begging for stimulus you create a cycle like welfare. That's the moral hazard. It's like in a university if you keep hoping for dumber people to be in your class to enhance your grades on a curve you really don't learn or earn grades. It's the same strategy as if you keep going broke and keep adding more people to a business.
Printing all of that money is the cause of the inflation
Altman makes no sense. He's positioned for a recession so he wants the Fed to push the market into a recession. But it's not necessary. The soft landing is seeming less likely. But a pause 2+ hikes ago with the threat of further hikes by end of summer would probably have us in a better position with perhaps the soft landing scenario more likely.
The problem with the recession scenario is if inflation does pick back up then we risk stagflation which would be a worse outcome than just inflation.
I suspect printing trillions of dollars was the main cause of inflation, not people buying extra BBQs or video game systems.
Why is it rocket science to understand that the very thing fed is doing to reduce inflation is itself inflationary, the supply chain disruption has never recovered, will not recover by interest rate hikes, but will surely get worse when production is further destroyed by super high interest rates. Why can't anyone get this simple straightforward thing ? Its basically supply demand dynamic.
Full employment and inflation are and always have been the 2 mandates of the FED and they are inversely related. Lowering inflation means increasing unemployment. Did Joe sleep through this part of Macroeconomics or is he really as dumb as he appears?? He's dead weight on this show.
inflation is still moving up….look at the data from producers…they raised prices again…the core material prices have raised again….inflation is not dead but you should really call it stagflation….and the only cuts you will see from the FED will come if the economy starts crashing….then the market well seel off if that happens out of fear
Dear Roger Altman, have some more respect for yourself. Don't let the neophite host talk over you. If he's not going to listen to what you have to say, sit there in silence until the toddler's tantrum is over, and think twice about coming back on. It's mind boggling when the obvious expert in the field is getting bombarded by someone who doesn't even understand the basics of the business cycle or the economy.
Don't forget price gauging from all companies.
Most beginners believe that investing in crypto and stock is all about bolding till it rises, with the recent activities in the market and recession. We should know that long term price predictions are very difficult to achieve. It's better to trade short term and make profit.
Roger, so if the Pandemic Payments, weren't necessary and created an Inflationary Force, why did your Democrat buddie, Joe Biden, push them through ???
Melissa Lee always asks good questions
no bailouts…
The only reason demand was high Rodger is because of all the freeeeeeee money otherwise demand would have been down.
Of course this left wing woke talking head would blame inflation on covid….BS….freeeeeee money period!
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time.
BUY RED. SELL GREEN. DONT SELL RED. AND BUY GREEN. I SAID IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GANG BUSTER EARNING. NOT IN THIS ECONOMY. INFLATION,INFLATION,INFLATION. EVERYBODY CUTTING BACK SPENDING. CUTTING BACK BORROWING. CUTTING BACK,CUTTING BACK. CAUSE I KNOW I AM.
Hey Joeyadumbpheck,.. Pocahontas is one of the reasons we're in thesheethole high inflation economy,…for her support (and possibly yours) of the senile ole joe admin and the demcorats,.. insane shutting down the fossil fuel industry/supply chain and the life blood of the,economy. .. his helicoptering money directly to consumers and these insane far left wacko record stealing from tax payers and deficit spending like drunken sailors when the economy was already recovering. GDP was 6 % when seniile ole joe took office,.. inflation was under 2%,….
The Fed didn't put a gun to Pocahontas' or any other demcorat's head and force them to print and waste $5 trillion on liberal pork creating this deficit, debt and inflaiton disaster.
The Fed can only react to theis abysmal fiscal policy with the few monetary tools it has.
The Fed can't go out and drill for oil. All it can do is adjust rates and M2 reserves.
If a few people have to lose their jobs in a recession that has to be brought to quell hyperinflation,.. so thephecking be it.
To hellwith you and Pocahontas worrying about unemployment running up to 4.5%, There was a time when 5% was considered full emplyment ya fool.
This is what happens when pochontas abuses, nay disregards her fiduciary responsibilities to tax payers.
How bout the 8 Trillion we printed?
Joe's the best…"found myself nodding and pulled myself away," lol
Just print more money and hand it out. Problem solved!
There are plenty of jobs to be had. Fed needs to keep going.
FED should keep raising rates till inflated prices for housing, goods, services get out of their minds.
FED is doing the right thing.
Joe is insufferable. Asks questions then talks over people to insert his own narrative.
I'm sure tax cuts for the rich really helped inflation
The banking industry and its regulators are currently in a whirlwind as they try to navigate the potential dangers of increasing interest rates and the risk of bank failures. Historically, periods of rising interest rates have been associated with an increased likelihood of bank failures, as higher borrowing costs can put pressure on banks' balance sheets and profitability.
These boomers keep harping on the 2nd half recession for a year now. Stfu!
Joe needs to retire. Radical republican Trump lover.
the GOP is a fundamentalist death cult that uses white and christian identity politics to get working people to vote for a top 1% agenda
I was never home the entire pandemic that narrative is bs. I work in the Dominos dough factory and still never got laid off I had people implying that everyone was home chilling and everyone got stimulus checks because that is not true smh
The primary cause of inflation was the 40% expansion of the M2 money supply