Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist and David Bianco, DWS Americas CIO discuss inflation’s impact and look at the volatility seen in the markets this week. They also explain why a path to a soft landing is getting tricky.
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Inflation is one of the key concerns for any economy. It arises when prices of goods and services increase, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. To maintain economic stability, governments and central banks take various measures to control inflation. The Federal Reserve, commonly known as the Fed, is the central bank of the United States responsible for addressing the issue of inflation.
The Fed has several tools at its disposal to address inflation, and one of the most important is the monetary policy. The monetary policy involves controlling the money supply and adjusting interest rates to stabilize the economy. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend money to each other on overnight loans. By changing this rate, the Fed can influence the borrowing rates of banks, which, in turn, affects the borrowing rates of households and businesses.
Another tool that the Fed uses to control inflation is open market operations. In open market operations, the Fed buys and sells government securities in the open market to influence the amount of money in circulation. If the Fed buys more bonds, it injects more money into the economy, leading to lower borrowing costs and higher spending. Conversely, if the Fed sells more bonds, it removes money from circulation, leading to higher borrowing costs and lower spending.
In addition to these tools, the Fed also monitors various economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, and inflation rate, to make informed decisions about monetary policy. If inflation is rising too fast, the Fed may increase interest rates or implement other measures to reduce the money supply and slow down spending. Conversely, if economic growth is sluggish, the Fed may lower interest rates or implement measures to boost the money supply and stimulate spending.
The Fed’s inflation fight is crucial in maintaining economic stability and promoting sustainable growth. Overly high inflation can lead to reduced purchasing power, reduced investment, and lower economic growth. Conversely, excessively low inflation can lead to deflation, which can result in decreased spending, lower investment, and economic contraction.
In conclusion, the Fed’s inflation fight is an essential aspect of its central banking role. By using monetary policy tools such as interest rates and open market operations, and monitoring various economic indicators, the Fed aims to maintain price stability and promote sustainable economic growth. Through these measures, the Fed can strike a balance between inflation and economic growth, leading to a stable and prosperous economy.
Greed of investors is driving inflation. How stocks perform drives inflation. "We want more dividends! We bought other people's labor to increase our wealth! Raise their food prices, raise their rents, squeeze all we can from the slaves to increase our wealth over them! We want to be gods! We want the slaves to bow and worship us!"
Bianco said, "Inflation's back", when it has been entrenched for some time.
If inflation comes- such a curious statement
@4:20 —- It "EXASTERBATES"
WTF
get he fck out of the markets !!
FEDS ARE CORRUPTED!!!
She said VIX doesn’t work for gauging risk the same as before
You are all talking about inflation here. Cause by people by voting for democrats that produce inflation. If you go away thinking I'm wrong, You'll keep making it happen. Bills that spend more money , make more problems for you. Inflation is the cause of those problems. Of course. But that is the government spending money they didn't have , to do things they don't need to do . Can you say NASA ?? Who wants to go to Mars now. Ask yourself , for what?? You can see my point. All spending by government causes inflation. They don't stop at what they took in for tax. Inflation ends up being the tax on the poor. I hear people that make a lot of money say " higher incomes pay for all the tax, while people in the lower income don't pay anything". NOT true at all , they pay the most because of inflation. As a result all crap like NASA is cost paid for directly from the poor.
The fed gets told what to do here , they're not in charge of it. Congress votes to spend it and president signs off on it. Then they make US treasuries (bonds) which Fed must buy. NO CHOICE AT ALL, they can't say no. And the new money supply is made and added to the rest. Many people think we have a bigger debt. NO not at all, the total of money supply = all the goods and services cost all the time. Money supply goes up , so do prices by the same % because of it. So the debt = the same after it works it's way into higher prices as it did before the increase. The only difference is government takes the value of the existing $ and gives it to themselves . Money in the bank loses it's value that way. So don't save cash during inflation , and taking on debt is really making wealth , so debt is good. Debt is good to have , because we pay back less value then we borrowed . That is exactly what people overall are doing. Example: Buying a house for 300K and paying it for 30 years . The last 10 years money is worth less then the first 10 years. So debt is good with inflation. Remember all $ lose value , including debt during inflation. So it goes the national debt made of $ is also losing value by the same % of increasing $. $1 becoming $2 while it is also each is now half of what a $ was , still is the same value. So the national debt is not getting bigger at all.
The process of making more and more money supply is stealing wealth from the poor. If you own assets you gain. But the poor only lose. They are also the very ones voting to make it happen. As it always and every time does cause inflation. Even when it's called an " inflation reduction act", which is also more inflation. Fools vote for it and damage themselves even more. The intent of the poor is to make life better , but it's only worse for them. That doesn't stop government from trying to spend a lot. That spending is so they can do things they can't otherwise do , to give to a group of people while trying to get their votes. That works on fools. Those fools vote for those that do this damage to the very country we live in. That damage last for a lot of years. Now fed says we need to slow inflation . Really not. Yes prices will go up to match the same % of $ increase as it always does. Faster or slower doesn't matter , it will do the same damage anyway. Higher prices. Best if we let it go and let wages go up too , so let it go up.
Best to just let the prices go up and wages right along with it. We can get a lot of the % of prices done. (That means up ) The total money supply = the total of prices for all the goods and services all the time. So it won't help to try and hold it down to much. Because the money supply is bigger and getting even bigger, by large amounts and %. No chance the prices won't do the same thing. It's what they do. Always and every time. Only the poor get hurt, by removing them from their jobs , and thus reducing some demand for a short amount of time , on some goods and some services. Like trying to save on toilet paper by starving your children. Yes it will work temporarily , but at what cost.
NOW THE MOST SEVERE AND IMMINENT NUCLEAR PROBLEM OF CHINA (+H.K) IS NOT THE SUPER SPEED CHAGING ITS DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEM BUT TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS FROM EVERY ASPECTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT ——– > NOW CHINA GOVERNMENT IN REALITY CANNOT AFFORD TO MAINTAIN ITS SOCIAL WELFARE BUDGETS ANYMORE SUCH AS PENSION + MEDICARE FOR SENIOR PEOPLE IN CHINA THAT WILL LEAD MORE AND MORE BANK – RUNS IN THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AGAIN AND AGAIN CHINA HAS NO MONEY BUT TREMENDOUS DEBT FROM MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE SPENDINGS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AGAIN AND AGAIN US FED HAS LOST ITS CREDIBILITY THAT IS 100% FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ——— > AND AGAIN AND AGAIN STOP USING THE STUPID WORD ' STICKY' SAME AS 'TRANSITORY' ————- > IT IS STAGFLTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN THERE IS NO SUCH THING LIKE SOFT LANDING THAT BECAYUSE THE FED HAS BEEN TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEHIND THE CURVE FOR TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN WHO ARE ABLE TO BUY US T – DEBT? NOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!! —— > FURTHER AND FURTHER US FED'S INTEREST RATE HIKING AND HIKING ——- > MEANS FURTHER AND FURTHER SELLING OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF US T – DEBT BY THE LARGEST FOREIGN HOLDERS —— > MEANS US$'S WEAKNESS AND WEAKNESS —— > FURTHER AND FURTHER RISING AND RISING OF THE COMMODITY PRICES ESP GOLD + ENERGY = THE CURRENT DYNAMICS TO PUSH UP AND UP AND UP THE SUPER CYCLE OF THE COMMODITY FOR MANY MANY MANY YEARS TO COME!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AND WHO ARE BUYING CHINA DEBT? —————- > NOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! + WHO ARE BUYING EU DEBT? —————— > NOBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES
(in billions of dollars)
HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD
Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec
Country 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2021
—— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
Japan 1076.3 1082.3 1064.4 1116.4 1196.0 1230.7 1232.7 1219.9 1215.0 1229.0 1303.0 1299.9 1300.8
China, Mainland 867.1 870.2 877.9 901.7 938.6 939.2 938.8 951.8 976.0 1013.2 1028.7 1033.8 1040.3
AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREADY THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH WORSE THAN LAST YEAR 2022YR AGAINST STOCKS + BONDS MEANS ————- > THIS YEAR 2023YR WILL BE APPROXIMATELY MORE THAN (-) 25% TO (-)29% FURTHER LOSS COMPARED TO LAST YEAR 2022YR IN THE STOCKS + BONDS MARKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ESP NASDAQ WILL BE COLLAPSED INTO 6K RANGE FROM WHERE IT IS NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!:) NO MORE INVESTMENT UNTIL REMOVE DEBT PROBLEMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN WE ARE SEEING THE LAST MOMENT OF US$ CHINA YUAN (+H.K$) BITCOIN EURO POUND STOCKS BONDS REAL ESTATE SECTOR ESP IN CHINA USA EUROPE THAT AGAIN ONLY GOLD + ENERGY ARE THE SAFE HAVEN ASSETS + STILL YEN IS IN THE BEST TIME TO GO APPRECIATION INTO THE LEVEL OF +68YEN FROM WHERE IT IS NOW INTO COMING MONTHS AND YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH GOLD PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE INTO THE RANGE OF 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR + OIL PRICE IS GETTING BACK TO ITS 130$BB/LS – 140$ BB/LS THIS YEAR OR PARADOXICALLY THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE REBOUNDING OF THE COMMODITY PRICES AS I'VE WARNED THAT ALREADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AGAIN CASH IS TRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
1+1= 2 MATH FACT THAT ——– > 1. COMING MARCH 16TH ECB WILL HIKE 50BP OF ITS DEPOSITORY RATE + 2. COMING MARCH 22ND FED WILL RAISE 50BP AFTER MARCH 10TH NON FARM PAYROLL REPORT THAT WILL SHOW 350K – 450K JOBS MOSTLY CREATED FROM SERVICE SECTORS OF US ECONOMY ——– > BUT COMING MARCH 10TH THE LAST MEETING OF THE BOJ LED BY CHAIR KURODA WILL STICK TO ITS YCC UNREASONABLY???? FOR WHAT?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! POURING MORE AND MORE AND MORE SYSTEMIC IMBALANCE BETWEEN AGGREGATE DEMAND VS AGGREGATE SUPPLY?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
NOW CHANGING PHILOSOPHY FROM BIG GOVERNMENT SYSTEM TO SMALL GOVERNMENT SYSTEM IN LINE WITH REMOVING TREMENDOUS DEBT WILL DECIDE THE NEXT ECONOMIC SUPER POWER TO LEAD THE WORLD ECONOMY UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS FUNDS RATE INTO +7% – +8% THIS YEAR HOWEVER THE FED WILL BE STILL TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEHIND THE CURVE TO DEAL WITH THE SUPER ENTRENCHED STAGFLATION IN THE ECONONY MEANS THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE SELLING OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF US T – DEBT BY THE LARGEST T – DEBT HOLDERS SUCH AS JAPAN + CHINA + OTHER MEANS —— > FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER WEAKNESS OF US$ GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON VS THE FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER RISING COMMODITY PRICES ESP GOLD + ENERGY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < —— DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!:) < —— THAT'S THE DYNAMICS OF FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER STRENGTH OF COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE FOR MANY YEARS TO COME!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN THE PARTY IS TOTALLY OVER AND THE HOSTS = THE NEO KEYNESIAN PSUEDO ECONOMISTS ARE PERFECTLY DEAD BUT LEFT TREMENDOUS DEBT PROBLEMS EVER SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURY OR COULD BE SINCE THE 1ST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IN 18TH – 19TH CENTURIES UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AGAIN AND AGIAN CHINA USA EUROPE HAVE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AMY + DAVID = SORRY TO SAY BUT THEY DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DO MATH THAT ——– > HEALTH CARE SECTOR + TECH SECTOR WILL BE DEMOLISHED TOO BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT IN US ECONOMY THAT ——— > FOR EXAMPLE) US HOUSEHOLDS DEBT IS NOW OVER +17T$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) AND THOSE TREMENDOUS DEBTS HAVE BEEN BINDED WITH MOSTLY WITH REAL ESTATE LOANS + AUTO LOANS + STUDENT LOANS + OF COURSE CREDIT CARD LOANS UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ——— > MEANS THERE WILL BE LESS AND LESS AND LESS SPENDING EVEN FOR HEALTH CARE THAT BEAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT PROBLEMS IN US ECONOMY ———- > THAT'S ONE OF THE BIGGEST REASONS WHY THERE ARE MORE AND MORE AND MORE SERVICE JOBS ARE BEING CREATED FROM US ECONOMY ESP SINCE THE 2ND Q OF 2022YR MEANS ———– > MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE DEBT PROBLEMS ARE BEING HAPPENED IN THE US ECONOMY BECAUSE OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE JOB MARKET SITUATIONS MEANS ——– > MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE WAGE GROWTH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE SITUATION OF SERVICE JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
P.S LONG STORY SHORT THAT NOW THE GREATEST LEADER IN CHINA MODERN HISTORY, XI JING PING, IS ALSO IN FULLY CHARGE OF CHINA (+H.K) ECONOMY UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DAVID BIANCO ———— > YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE EVERYTHING IF YOU PUT YOUR CLIENTS MONEY INTO CHINA (+H.K) THAT YOU HAVE 0% UNDERSTAND ABOUT WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON AND ON AND ON AND ON IN CHINA THAT AGAIN CHINA WILL NEVER REOPEN EVEN AFTER 2030YR THAT AGAIN AND AGAIN CHINA ALREADY HAS STARTED ITS OWN VERSION OF THE MARCH OF HARDSHIP IN N.KOREAN STYLE IN 1990S TILL NOW UNDERSTAND?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OR THERE IS NO WAY TO KEEP ITS ONE PARTY SYSTEM MEANS CHINA COMMUNIST PARTY CANNOT SURVIVE IN COMING YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AS I'VE SAID ALREADY THAT NOW CHINA INTEREST RATE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE TO GET BALANCED WITH OTHERS OR MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER AND FURTHER DEBT PROBLEMS GOING ON AND ON DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!:) —– > China Swap Traders Flip to Bet on Higher Rates on Growth Rebound Five-year swaps have risen to highest since before pandemic End of Covid era policy doesn’t mean end of easing bias: OCBC ByBloomberg News March 3, 2023 at 8:15 AM GMT+8Updated onMarch 3, 2023 at 2:39 PM GMT+8
LONG STORY SHORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ———– > THERE IS NO SUCH THING LIKE 'Opportunities Seen in China'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) DO THE MATH THAT CHINA GDP GROWTH WILL BE DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN IN COMING ECONOMIC QUARTERS AND YEARS THAT BECAUSE AGAIN CHINA (+H.K) HAS TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT TO GO FURTHER FROM HERE THAT AGAIN CHINA PBOC ALSO HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS INTEREST RATES (= LPR + REPO RATE) THIS YEAR OR 0% EXAGGERATION THAT ———– CHINA ECONOMY'S COLLAPSE IS GETTING ACCELERATED MORE AND MORE FURTHER AND FURTHER BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT THAT STILL MOUNTING AND MOUNTING AND MOUNTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)