Should investors worry about regional banks? Will the Federal Reserve tame inflation? Is a recession looming? What’s next for stocks and bonds? Pure Financial Advisors’ Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer Brian Perry, CFP®, CFA® charter, AIF® addresses these questions as he discusses Q1 market volatility and the outlook for Q2 and beyond.

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00:00 – Intro
00:26 – Banks and Recession: What is a Recession?
05:17 – Inflation remains high. When will it moderate? 100-year and 12-month inflation rates
09:32 – Is the dollar going to be replaced as the reserve currency?
11:42 – Stock Market Volatility, Performance, Bull and Bear Markets, Consumer Confidence, Inflation
17:23 – Should I still own international stocks? Global Stock Market Summary Performance, Values, Returns, Revenue
24:05 – Pessimism, Prices, Good Time to Invest?
25:56 – Bonds: Negative Bond Returns Uncommon, Performance, US Treasury Yield Curve, Fixed Income Valuations, Historical Default Rates
32:36 – How to Build My Portfolio? Commodities and Cryptocurrency Performance
35:04 – Diversification. Why Stay the Course?
40:10 – The Most Important Question: What is your required rate of return (ROR)?
43:00 – If my ROR is at least twice the cost of management from a money manager, for example, if the management fee is 3% of my earnings, should my rate of return be at least 6%?
44:45 – For the average 50-something person, how much should we be investing in bonds?
46:03 – Is it too late to get into some of the larger stocks like Apple or Google?

Pure Financial Advisors, LLC is a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor providing comprehensive retirement planning services and tax-optimized investment management to thousands of people across the nation.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
• Investment Advisory and Financial Planning Services are offered through Pure Financial Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor.
• Pure Financial Advisors LLC does not offer tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding specific situations.
• Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
• Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
• All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
• Intended for educational purposes only and are not intended as individualized advice or a guarantee that you will achieve a desired result. Before implementing any strategies discussed you should consult your tax and financial advisors.
CFP® – The CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification is by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. To attain the right to use the CFP® designation, an individual must satisfactorily fulfill education, experience and ethics requirements as well as pass a comprehensive exam. Thirty hours of continuing education is required every two years to maintain the designation.
CFA® charter – Chartered Financial Analyst® Chartered Financial Analyst® designation was first introduced in 1963. The CFA Program contains three levels of curriculum, each with its own 6-hour exam. Candidates must meet enrollment requirements, self-attest to professional conduct, complete the approx. 900 hours of self-study, and successfully pass all three levels to use the designation.The program curriculum increases in complexity as you move through the three levels:
Level I: Focuses on a basic knowledge of the ten topic areas and simple analysis using investment tools
Level II: Emphasizes the application of investment tools and concepts with a focus on the valuation of all types of assets
Level III: Focuses on synthesizing all of the concepts and analytical methods in a variety of applications for effective portfolio management and wealth planning
CFA Institute does not endorse, promote, or warrant the accuracy or quality of Pure Financial Advisors. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
AIF® – Accredited Investment Fiduciary designation is administered by the Center for Fiduciary Studies fi360. To receive the AIF Designation, an individual must meet prerequisite criteria, complete a training program, and pass a comprehensive examination. Six hours of continuing education is required annually to maintain the designation….(read more)

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As the financial markets move forward into Q2 2023, several key economic indicators will be closely watched, including inflation, interest rates, and the possibility of a recession.

Inflation has been a major concern for many investors and economists in recent years. Rising inflation rates can have a significant impact on the economy, as consumers are forced to pay more for goods and services. This can lead to reduced spending and a slowdown in economic growth. In 2022, we saw inflation rates spike to levels not seen in decades, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching over 6% in the US. However, it is likely that inflation will start to decrease in Q2 2023, as the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic begin to ease and the labor market stabilizes.

Inflation is closely tied to interest rates, as central banks often adjust interest rates in response to changes in the inflation rate. In 2022, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to help combat rising inflation. However, as inflation starts to come down in 2023, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates low to help support economic growth. This will be positive for both consumers and businesses, as it will make borrowing cheaper and stimulate spending.

Unfortunately, the possibility of a recession cannot be completely ruled out. Recessions occur when there is a significant decline in economic activity, usually characterized by rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, and declines in GDP. Although the global economy has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing threat of new variants and continued supply chain disruptions could lead to a slowdown in economic growth. However, as long as inflation remains in check and interest rates remain low, the impact of any potential recession is likely to be limited.

In summary, the Q2 2023 financial market outlook is positive overall, with inflation expected to decrease, interest rates remaining low, and the possibility of a recession remaining somewhat uncertain. As always, investors should continue to monitor these economic indicators closely and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.