Every quarter, we like to take a look at the main aspects of the overall economy.
That means that we’ll be speaking about inflation, stocks, PMs and other commodities, and real estate.
We’ll even touch on debt, employment, and the likely recession.
There will be major tides in 2023 which may have significant impacts on BOTH investor confidence, and the wealth effect.
A lot of this economic set-up is leading us all right into yet ANOTHER debt ceiling crisis, mixed in with what will be a spike in defaults and bankruptcies.
By knowing which way the wind is blowing, you will be more likely to avoid the MAJOR risks, while getting involved with some of the hundreds of great opportunities which will be all around you throughout 2023, such as many which we expose through the newsletter.
Just yesterday we got the latest inflation print, dropping yet again.
Inflation is incredibly significant, b/c as we are all feeling the pinch, and having a harder time making ends meet, our buying habits will change… which in turn has major ramifications on the stocks which reflect a big portion of the economy.
For example, when eggs and bread cost 50% more, you may go out to restaurants less frequently, or you may choose to put off purchases of expensive jeans or luxury items.
You may even feel consumer confidence falling, or feel the much darker vibe in conversations with your friend and family, or around the water cooler at work.
One of the ways this manifests is displayed through the velocity of money declining. The overall economy gradually slows, which we are seeing right now the world over.
For example, the European Commission’s economic forecast says most EU countries are already in recession.
Next will be a recession here in America, which means bankruptcies, delinquencies, rising unemployment, and an overall decline in the quality of all of our lives.
When the recession arrives, it will do a few things:
– drive away investor confidence
– it will result in layoffs, and thus eventually a climbing unemployment rate
– debt defaults will rise, on top of already significant problems to come with the MUCH higher interest rates.
Speaking of interest rates, remember there is quite a delay b/w an increase in rates, and when that increase eventually starts having their negative effect. Typically many months.
That will be another handful of sand thrown in the eyes of the real estate market.
Case schiller RE index – MoM, YoY
With declining RE prices, you get a reversal of the wealth effect.
stocks
direction good so far in 2023, much was short-covering rally.
precious metals
2023 year of PMs
Central bank buying trends (show chart)
China hides purchases, proxies, false or lack of reporting
Gearing up for gold-backed currency.
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Here is the set-up:
RE in decline as we roll into a recession.
Layoffs and bankruptcies will rise, just as the weight of the increased interest rates begin to have their effect.
As long as more PM demand than supply, prices will keep rising. Since gold is one of the best-performing assets of ALL types right now, it will finally be on people’s radar.
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This is great information thanks
Thank you Peter for your work! Good advices as always! LIKE
I don’t think the fed will reduce interest rates. I think this time they will continue to raise. They’ve said multiple times they intend to continue to raise. I think the markets are the ones hopeful they will loosen but only because they have become so addicted to cheap money they don’t see beyond their noses. The fed can’t be that stupid, they know they need to reduce inflation at all costs.
I get they are now faced with the greater of two evils but they aren’t stupid enough to think hyper inflation is lessor. They will tank the economy and blame Trump or some other boogie man. They will change definitions and make every excuse in the book but they will continue to raise rates.
Brand new jeans with holes in them. I don’t get it. I’m a seamstress though so I should be cheering it on.
@10:10 looking at the graph…we can tell it won't be until 2026 when the sh.t hits the fan…in pay back hurt really starting to hurt. That's when printing and currency devaluation (inflation) will really take hold….2026 onward. We have three more blissful years.
Yes, it's a stock picker market….in the major and minor miners….sell all non-related stocks and head into the miners.
Raising the debt limit is a joke…they always "do-it" Seamlessly!!!
HELP: Question to Peter Leeds followers and ( Peter ): What bounces back first during a stock market crash ……gold mining stocks or more mainstream company stocks ex: aapl, goog , nke…..etc….. …..thank you for any opinion
Another informative video to keep the working class economically informed…Thank you Peter leeds, Tammy & team
Unfortunately silver will still be $24 in 2023 ** $24 in 2024 ** $24 in 2025 ** $24 in 2026, in the future a dozen eggs will be worth more than 2 pounds of silver, in the future silver will be sold by the pound like copper, through it all I hang in there with silver just maybe it might make it to $25 an ounce it would be the time to celebrate hopefully before 2027/28/29/30 it will do this it, it has been discouraging like watching tree pitch on the move
funtastic and thank you Peter
Who has all this physical gold to sell, you hear about hundred's and thousands of tons being bought/sold? is Fort Knox empty of it's gold? wasn't it Munchkin who went to fort Knox in 2018 and visually audited from the aisle way and claimed that every ounce gold was accounted for, good job Steve, hopefully they didn't roll his office chair to fast down the aisle while he was counting all the gold
Good morning Peter, it is Saturday, it has been a very busy week for me. I am currently in my bathroom starting to shave my face, my wife is down in the kitchen preparing breakfast and coffee, I am listening to/ seeing your video. If that is not a good start into the weekend I do not know what is. Thanks for all of your videos. Regards from Germany
National DEBT will never be paid off and the DEBTS were never meant to be paid …. Get smart and get real ….
There was also silver used in Weimar, Germany when the currency failed
Nice to see a behind-the-scenes shot of Pete's home office!
Peteys in the house!