Renowned economist Gary Shilling has recently made waves in the financial world by suggesting that the United States economy may be heading towards a ‘delayed’ recession. This prediction has sparked a lot of debate and speculation among experts and investors alike.
Shilling’s theory is based on several key factors that he believes are indicative of an impending recession. One of the main factors he points to is the inverted yield curve, which occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of an economic downturn, as it often signals that investors have lost confidence in the economy’s future growth prospects.
Another factor that Shilling believes is contributing to the potential for a delayed recession is the unprecedented levels of government debt that the United States has accumulated in recent years. The country’s debt has reached a staggering $28 trillion, and Shilling warns that this level of debt could have negative consequences for the economy, such as higher interest rates and inflation.
Shilling also points to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy as a potential catalyst for a recession. The Fed has been pumping trillions of dollars into the economy through quantitative easing and low interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth. While these policies have been effective in the short term, Shilling argues that they may have unintended consequences in the long run, such as fueling asset bubbles and increasing economic instability.
Despite these warning signs, Shilling believes that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a ‘delayed’ recession due to the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government’s swift and massive stimulus efforts have helped to prop up the economy and prevent a more severe downturn. However, Shilling warns that these measures may only be masking underlying weaknesses in the economy that could eventually lead to a recession.
While Shilling’s prediction of a ‘delayed’ recession may be met with skepticism by some, it is important to consider the track record of this respected economist. Shilling correctly predicted the recessions of 1969, 1973, 1980 and 2008, demonstrating his ability to see economic trends before they become mainstream knowledge.
As investors and policymakers alike continue to monitor the state of the U.S. economy, Gary Shilling’s warning of a potential ‘delayed’ recession serves as a reminder that economic conditions are always subject to change. By staying informed and prepared for a potential downturn, individuals and businesses can better position themselves to weather the storm and emerge stronger on the other side.
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Biden's recent decisions have been very questionable and anti-investment. But the factors surrounding debt and a possible recession have so many nuances that the ordinary person does not see, and so when I'm investing, I like to work with a professional. That is how I am able to make up to $15k a month.
Great video, I have a quick question. I am an aspiring trader, I am looking study some traders and earn off their expertise rather than investing myself and lose money emotionally. Whats your take on copy trading? Do people really make money? Just looking for some reassurance.
Thank you!
I heard someone say the economy was better when Trump was in office. Are you kidding half of the country was in line for food boxes in every state. People are just having to pay producers back for when they couldn't get people to pay for goods in the store . Con Agra has made billions in profit since COVID was controlled. The oil industry made over 50 Billion in profit ; to name two. They are like sharks in a feeding frenzy. Blood money because oil and agriculture are two of the biggest federal subsidiesand, tax break receivers in the country.
What a intelegent and down to earth man
I think it will all work out well. If you want to hear a Perma-Bear and get all negative watch him. Everything is good folks and will get better. If you are watching financial news on CNBC, you aren't the typical Joe-Six Pack, you are either doing pretty well, got hurt in the market and are angry or are trolls.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
India’s law and order is not where we would like. Who is this old fart ? He thinks India is trying to impress you guys?
Given worries over recession and potential interest rate hikes, with my $600,000 stock portfolio down 25%, how can I hedge it to potentially profit?
First quarter growth was a measly 1.6%. Stocks are tanking and real wages are down 14%.
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 15% every 7week according to Bloomberg
On a brighter note, every recession comes with an equal chance in the fin-mrkt if you're early informed and equipped, I've read folks amass up to 7 figures during these times, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Truthfully, I’d need guide please for a boomer like me to attain such amount for retirement, we definitely need to benefit from this situation somehow.
What a joke this guy seriously said wages are rising faster than inflation when for DECADES wage growth has not been proportional AT ALL
US debt at U$35 trillion is 140% pf its U$ 25.44 trillion GDP. It borrows 40% of its GDP or U$10 trillion to achieve 1.6% growth or U$0.4 trillion. US economy has collapsed!
"During labor shortage"…… There is no "labor shortage" – there is shortage of pay. Pay well and all openings will be filled right away. Nobody wanna work for someone for "free"……. More surprisingly that this is not recession right now, I though it is….
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
Why should wage increases affect the bottom line if the bottom line does affect wage increases? pay us a livable wage.
English give up thats why jealous of America and too
Belong to England all peoples doesn't like Americans because they high too much their economy trying to touch Sky
Trump’s tax cuts are holding this thing together
We are not in a recession until the govt and media tells you so.
Never mind the prices of goods and services.
End the financial spam commercial comments please!