Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now sees only a 15% chance the US will slide into recession, down from 20% on cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market. Valerie Tytel reports on Bloomberg Television.
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Goldman Revises US Recession Chances Down to 15%
In a recent update, Goldman Sachs has revised its chances of a US recession down to 15%. This marks a significant change from their previous estimate of 25%. The renowned investment bank’s revision highlights a more optimistic outlook for the American economy.
Goldman Sachs arrived at this conclusion by analyzing various economic indicators and trends. The report suggests that several factors are contributing to the reduced likelihood of an economic downturn. Among these are the progress made on the US-China trade negotiations, a strong labor market, and a healthy consumer spending environment.
The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have been a major concern for investors and economists alike. However, recent developments, such as the signing of a “Phase One” trade deal, have significantly eased these worries. Goldman Sachs believes that this agreement will contribute to a more stable trade environment, allowing businesses to make informed investment decisions.
Another reason for the improved outlook is the strength of the labor market. The US unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, and job growth has been consistent. This, coupled with rising wages, indicates that consumers have more disposable income, leading to increased spending. Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth, and Goldman Sachs predicts that it will continue to provide a boost to the US economy.
However, despite the positive outlook, Goldman Sachs does acknowledge some risks to the economy. Political uncertainties, both domestic and international, as well as any unforeseen developments in trade negotiations, could potentially dampen the positive trend. Additionally, signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector remain a concern and need to be closely monitored.
It’s worth noting that while Goldman Sachs predicts a 15% chance of a recession, this does not mean that a recession is completely off the table. Economic forecasts are subject to change, and unforeseen events could quickly alter the trajectory. Therefore, it is essential for policymakers and market participants to remain vigilant and proactive in their analysis and decision-making.
Goldman Sachs’ revised assessment comes at a time when investors and businesses are seeking clarity about the future of the American economy. The lowered probability of a recession should provide a sense of relief and encourage market participants to maintain a positive outlook.
In conclusion, Goldman Sachs has revised its chances of a US recession down to 15%, signaling a more positive outlook for the economy. Factors such as progress on trade negotiations, a strong labor market, and robust consumer spending have contributed to this revision. Nevertheless, risks and uncertainties persist, and it is crucial to closely monitor economic indicators and adapt strategies accordingly.
Remember this… “Nobody Knows Until Everybody Knows.” And When Everybody Knows, IT’S ALREADY TOO LATE.
So why is Yellen making so many trips to China?
During 2011 China had to step in for the currency war to buy excess of the US bonds to depreciate its own currency and strengthen the dollar. If the US goes into a recession now, there is no one in the world to help to strengthen the dollar. Its a total different scenario than the 2008.
The debt ceiling has to be raised by the end of the month or the government supposedly runs out of money to pay for all the things that government wastes our money on, from underwriting drag-queen story hours to paying the pensions of retired Ukrainian government officials. Wouldn’t that actually be a fine opportunity for some vigorous de-funding of government activities, such as the DOJ’s special prosecutor operation, Homeland Security’s censorship office, every dollar apportioned to Ukraine, the FBI’s continuing Jan 6 witch-hunt, the Department of Health and Human Services Covid-19 hoodoo, and probably a hundred other trespasses against the public’s sense of decency and good faith?
Or else, isn’t the country ripe for a new party that actually represents the interests of the country?
History taught us, when they say 15 percent, it means 85% we are going to see a massive recession
pahmp eet
USA and UK are the most stupid countries in the world. They are allowing so many foreigners in their countries. They are increasing their population and invading silently. Native American and Britishers are struggling for jobs while foreigners are getting jobs easily. British prime minister is Indian origin. Indian origins are fighting for president in USA. There are so many Indian origin CEO's in Major companies in USA. One day Indian origin will rule over native American.
I don't think India and China will allow any foreigner to rule over them.
S&P500 is at 4500, historical highs, but the fed rate is 5.5%. They just want to attract new people to sell it on these prices before recession
Well, of course. They want others to buy products, not be sidelined waiting for a recession in cash funds…
Don't believe this bull. It's going to be bad. Real bad. They just don't want bank runs. It's already happening.
* SOUN… SoundHound.. Strong Dip-buying of Top Gaining AI Sector Stock Up 11 % week. 79 % Gross Margin. More Global Investors Choosing the Best Tech in Sept.
recession confirmed.
Feels desperate.
They must have made huge long bets
It seems like America is the only country doing well in the world these days. Economically anyway, not culturally or socially.
I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever, hoping to retire next year… Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life.