Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), predicts a US recession “running perhaps deep into next year.” Grantham says we have entered a period of “moderately higher inflation.” Grantham speaks in an interview taped on August 17th for an upcoming episode of “Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein.”…(read more)
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Grantham Sees a US Recession Running Deep Into Next Year
Renowned investor Jeremy Grantham has made a grim prediction for the US economy, suggesting that a recession could last well into next year. Grantham, known for his accurate forecasts in the past, has voiced concerns about the state of the economy as the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on global markets.
Grantham’s prediction comes as no surprise to many economists and policymakers. The US economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, with millions of job losses and a significant downturn in consumer spending. The government’s efforts to stimulate the economy through various relief packages have provided temporary relief, but the long-term effects of the pandemic are still to be fully understood.
In a recent interview, Grantham pointed out that the recession could last for at least another 12 to 18 months, with no clear end in sight. He expressed concerns about the potential for a second wave of infections and the lack of a coordinated response from the government. Grantham also highlighted the risk of deflation, as falling consumer demand and high unemployment could lead to a decrease in prices.
While Grantham’s prediction may seem dire, it is important to note that he has a track record of accurately predicting economic downturns. His early warnings about the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis were well-documented. As such, his views carry significant weight in the world of finance and investing.
Grantham’s advice for investors in this uncertain climate is to exercise caution and focus on long-term strategies. He emphasized the importance of diversification and allocating capital to assets that are less vulnerable to market volatility. He also suggested that investors consider increasing their exposure to assets like gold, which historically has been a safe haven during times of economic turmoil.
While Grantham’s outlook may be sobering, it serves as a reminder of the need for prudence and vigilance in these challenging times. As the US economy grapples with the fallout from the pandemic, it is crucial for individuals and businesses to carefully assess their financial positions and make strategic decisions to weather the storm.
As the situation continues to evolve, it will be important to pay attention to the advice of experts like Grantham and to stay informed about the latest developments in the economy. While the road ahead may be uncertain, having a clear understanding of the risks and opportunities can help individuals and businesses navigate through the tough times and emerge stronger in the long run.
Hes nuts
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
There's going to be a government shut down by October 1st. This shut down will persist into January 2024. The shut down is the catalyst to a hard landing severe recession….really bad.
Humans always congratulate themselves on the positive, and sweep the negative under the carpet.
Love the criticisms and incredulity of the “fed always being wrong” from a guy who has been wrong calling the “super bubble” for 15 years running. Google Jeremy Grantham predictions and add a random year in the past decade. Irresponsible giving him any airtime as it seeps into the narrative and spooks to average investor.
While I do believe we'll have a recession around first half of 2024, I would not listen to Grantham or Roubini recession calls. Those two guys are always calling for a recession and their calls haven't materialized for a long time. I would listen to more balanced views like Matthew Luzzetti with Deutsch Bank
This guy was 99.9% sure we would have large recession in 2023 and that was dead wrong. What a hypocrite.
Where is the full episode?
This guy has been negative since 1900
This guy has been claiming we are going to have a crash any minute for just over a decade. If you followed his advice you would have missed one of the greatest bull markets in history. Of course a broken clock is right twice a day. So eventually he will have his moment in the sun.
When is the full video coming out??
I wish i learnt most of these principles about seven years ago. A lot of people have been trapped strongly in the matrix– Go to school, get a job, and then slave your whole life. Many miss out on life-changing information that could have great effect on their finances. I played with the stock market sometime in 2020, and I was surprised at how well it turned out. I want to put in $90k more into the market. I heard people are making really great returns despite the downturn. Any recommendations?
Biden says no recession he says Bidennomics is working
Wait, what?? Jeremy Grantham is talking about the FED being wrong about stuff. JEREMY GRANTHAM!? With his record of being wrong about crashes time after time after time…
The game's over, Jeremy. I'm embarrassed to be from the same country as you. You utter utter farce.
All this guy sees is recessions…it's like a person who can only see black and white films
I love love Listening to These discussions but the value is always so low.
Why does he talk like he has Aspergus syndrome or autism?
Recession is already here — it is expressed in almost non-existent growth rate, i.e. we all experience this setback. I share the sentiment that ignorance from those in charge will only make things worse going forward.
Pray for the best & hope for the worse….
Try to loan than to print.
Loan=10T
Debt=50T
Total(Debt+Loan)=60T
Invest=5T Dividen=10%=0.5T
Buy premium=0.5T
Payout(Yield=15%,Maturity Year=30)
=1.15^30*0.5T=33T
Cashout or current value
Formula(Yield=6%,Maturity left=30)
=33T*(1.06^-30)=5.7T
Buy premium=5.7T
Payout(Yield=15%,Year=30)
=5.7T*1.15^30=377T
Cashout or current value
Formula(Yield=6%,Maturity Left=30)
=377T*(1.06^-30)=67T
Total(Debt+Loan)=60T Yield=7% Year=1
Settlement=1.07^1*60T=64.2T
Balance=67T-64.2T=2.8T(cash)
Debt=0
Loan=0
Premium=5T
(Yield=15%,Year Maturity=30)
Payout=1.15^30*5T
=331T(Maturity=30).
To increase payout
Dividen only
100%=100 USD
1%=1USD
Example:
Capital Buy=% Sell=% Gross
1000 100 800 8000
2000 80 800 20000
3000 60 800 40000
4000 40 800 80000
5000 20 800 200000
6000 10 800 480000
7000 5 800 1120000
Dividen*ratio.
Note:Government purpose only.
Government pay with time, 30 Years or less.
3000 usd per month average man
3000 usd per second for billionaire.
Thank you.