Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman recently made headlines when he declared that the United States is on the brink of a housing recession. Kelman’s warning comes at a time when many experts have been pointing to signs of a slowing housing market, such as decreasing home sales and rising mortgage rates.
In a recent interview, Kelman stated that he believes the housing market is at a tipping point and that a recession is imminent. He pointed to several key factors that he believes are contributing to the potential downturn, including high home prices, increasing mortgage rates, and a lack of affordable housing options.
Kelman’s warning has sparked conversation among real estate professionals and economists, with many expressing concerns about the impact a housing recession could have on the overall economy. A slowdown in the housing market can have a ripple effect, affecting not only homeowners and buyers, but also construction jobs, mortgage lenders, and the broader economy.
While Kelman’s prediction may sound dire, it is important to note that he is not the only expert sounding the alarm about the housing market. In recent months, several reports have highlighted signs of a slowdown, including a decrease in home sales and a rise in inventory levels.
So, what does this mean for potential homebuyers and sellers? It’s important to stay informed and be cautious in the current market. While it may be a challenging time to buy or sell a home, it is not necessarily a time to panic. By working with a knowledgeable real estate agent and staying informed about market trends, individuals can make educated decisions about buying or selling a home.
In the meantime, Kelman’s warning serves as a reminder that the housing market is not immune to economic cycles. As we move forward, it will be important to monitor the housing market closely and be prepared for potential changes in the market.
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fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
SHOCKED EVERYONE!…… Who?
Ebb and Flow is Seeing a Shortening in the Curve From Pandemic Days While Prices Remain High Constraints in the Current Situation are Starting to Effect Yield up and Down Scalable Pricing in all Variations if Applicable Pressures Persist with Housing Stagflation the Common Denominator in Relief Should Abate the Current Situation with 8to10yrs being the Standard run over the last 80yrs Chart in at 2016 just hitting 8 in 2024 !.
Where the fuck is recession? I don't see any at all.
Not in Columbus Ohio. Things are still very hot. It’s the damn investors and speculators screwing things up. It should be illegal for corporations to buy single family homes.
I'm sorry , who's is saying the economy is thriving???
if i were a betting man i would short the housing market & apartments market in Florida,Texas,NewYork,California & Georgia!!!!!
I wish the worst for Redfin.
Does this mean the people that bought homes with the 3% interest will see home price value hold or come down? Curious to know anyone's perspective on this
@ the 5:00 mark, Glenn sounds like a typical realtor. Dude, prices are WAY TOO high. The only cure is a real recession that pushed unemployment above 5.5% for two years. Then and only then will prices return to the mean.
Just look at the pricing graph @ 0:55. From 2012 through 2019, it's normal. Then BAM! The Fed cuts rates to near zero and the fix is in. NOBODY should be talking about rates. The issue is prices and prices alone. We're into an inflation super cycle. So long as Congress keeps spending trillions each year in deficit spending, then inflation isn't going to retreat back to 2%. That's a FACT!
“In tangent…” – you mean in tandem.
an folks that's bidenomics
it came to the point that saving money to built a home is much cheaper than pay a mortgage that with interest alone will cost 3 times or more in the long term
Our host states the following: "…he sees the details of the market in extreme detail…"
The correct grammar is as follows: It is he (not him).
Never say never. Personally i'm a real estate investor and mortgage lender for thirty eight years in south florida… Prices of everything are absolutely unequivocally Ridiculous… We've had almost fourteen years of property value increases.. Everything is inverted and when this happens typically you see Some sort of unexpected circumstance that changes the market as it did suddenly in 2008.. Real estate just doesn't keep going up .if you evaluate the incomes and net worth Of the majority of the american public ,We are riding high on debt.. The defaults are coming not only in houseing and commercial real estate, but personal debt credit card debt student loan debt and government debts with levels we've never seen. The majority of people are stressed out struggling and under tremendous pressure. Additionally, the reason we're seeing this tremendous inflation and High cost of everything is due to the trillions of dollars of stimulus that the government has pumped into the system over the last four years. Our politicians are continuing to spend money frivolously Like drunken sailors. In addition janet yellen just pumped another trillion dollars in the first quarter in treasuries into the system. This is an artificial stimulation of the economy, which will eventually end up In some sort of catastrophe. I guarantee it… Just remember the old saying is when the musical chair stops.You have to have a place to sit down. We are broke, just take a look at USdebtclock.org Study it carefully.. It will make you sick to your stomach..
The only solution to this issue is for tremendous intervention With our government.
To cut programs, trim the fat, Close a lot of unnecessary departments. Which will unlikely never happen. I hate to say it , but we're doomed Unless there's dramatic changes.
13 out of the top 100 metros are seeing price increases. That's it, 13.
The majority of the country is seeing flat values or declining values.
Amazingly homes in the upper price tier is amazing 500k to 1.5k especially east coast!
Also the market will 100% crash over the next 2-3 years, it literally already is, at least in the several zip codes in nashville i keep a watch on with our MLS. We're down 10% from all time highs when looking at price per square foot in MOST zip codes and volume is in the midst of skyrocketing far earlier and faster than usual. If you think prices are going to stagnate or go up, PLEASE buy a house or shut up. Put your money where your mouth is.
I'm betting my entire savings that things fall, by not buying a house or two and growing the savings to deploy in a couple years.
5:20 to 5:38
this man literally just described what an overpriced asset it. The sellers think something is worth one thing but all the buyers think it's worth much less. Eventually one has to budge, but usually the buyer cant just cough up an extra 15% on the most expensive purchase they'll ever make. Prices either must fall or you dont sell, its really that simple.
The FOMO wave works the exact same up as down. up with greed and down with fear.
All of these imbalances is due to the FED manipulating the market.
Had they not pushed rates low for such a long time then there would not be the conditions we are seeing now.
The problem is when politicians made the FED have a dual mandate. So they now determine rates based on employment.
The money market needs to be free without employment being a consideration. Politicians need to create employment through policy not telling the FED to give out money at cocaine party rates.
In southern CA we're still see all cash buyers. Mostly foreigners from China.
However, we've also seen an influx of city dwellers moving to the suburbs, further inflating prices.
The coming recession will be the trigger. You can't stay put if you lose your job….
Rates slow down the buyers… Supply drives down the prices.. until we get more supply in the housing market.. we are screwed
One thing this video isn't taking into consideration is the massive amount of homes private equity/Blackrock purchased to take advantage of huge rent price increases. Let's see what happens when the economy tanks, (it will),and all these private equity firms dumps their inventory and flood the market with homes. And they won't take a hit because it was all free money they bought these houses up with in the first place. And, the amount of profit they made in rents is astronomical! The market is much easier manipulated with social media now. People will believe anything. Especially when it's something they want to agree with aka confirmation bias. Here's an example, Bitcoin will be worth a million in 2030. There's no way. All that info is just priming and foreshadowing but people have a fomo so it works every time. There's a sucker born every minute. Cash is king. Save yours and when shtf…you will be ready.
I believe you're missing the forrest for the trees when it comes to the housing market and you're only looking at it in a vacuum as opposed to what's happening in the broader economy. The inventory glut will happen once the recession happens. Inventory is so low because nobody wants to sell and be stuck with a higher rate. Inflation is predictably roaring back against the wishcasting of analysts and the predicted interest rate relief isn't coming and may even instead give way to another hike if YoY inflation notches back above 4%. Low rate mortgage holders dont want to sell, but they may be forced to.
Come on baby… I hope it's horrible…
Affordability is the problem. Prices must drop
Let's not forget, for the 2008 housing crash, it didn't happen immediately – it took from early 2007 to mid-2008 for that demand destruction, unemployment uptick and ultimate supply surge to kill the market and cause a 40-50% crash in most areas. To the point where in late 2007, dozens of national news agencies were declaring that a "soft landing has been achieved and there will be no recession." The math is 43% worse today than it was in 2007. Unemployment is about to rocket past 10% and home values will come down 60-65%.
In 2020 and 2021, people were overpaying for houses in the market regardless of their condition. In 2024, people are looking for good deals on houses in good condition and well-located in desirable neighborhoods. These houses will sell quicker than others. It's more about quality these days. The real issue is the shortage of inventory. Once the inventory increases, house prices will soften, but that won't happen until the interest rates reach 4-5%, which will increase the demand pool and cause house prices to rise again. For the market to crash, the unemployment rate would have to spike significantly, which is unlikely at this moment.
So RE can't appreciate 20% YoY forever? Who would have guessed?
We are going to be in this market until rates hit low 5%