Many economic experts predicted that the UK would dip into recession in the second half of last year.
Latest figures show that they were wrong. But only just – with GDP growth in October, November and December barely registering.
The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said that it showed evidence of “underlying resilience” but warned that the economy is “not out of the woods yet”.
And the Bank of England still expects the UK to plunge into recession later this year.
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The United Kingdom has narrowly avoided a recession, with the latest figures revealing that the country’s economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2019, following a contraction in the second quarter. However, the question on everyone’s minds is how long can this trend continue?
The UK economy has been on an uncertain path in recent years due to Brexit-related factors such as uncertainty, dwindling consumer confidence, and weakened investment. However, the recent upturn has provided some hope that the economy may be stabilizing.
The growth in the third quarter of 2019 was largely driven by the services sector, which expanded by 0.4%. Despite this, the manufacturing and construction sectors declined further by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, indicating that the UK economy is still facing its fair share of challenges.
There are a few reasons why the UK narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter. One factor is the temporary reduction in Brexit-related uncertainty, following the extension of the UK’s departure date from the EU to the end of January 2020. This may have led to increased consumer confidence and business investment in the short-term.
Another factor could be the recent cut in interest rates by the Bank of England to 0.75%, making borrowing cheaper and potentially boosting consumer spending. However, this cut may not have a significant impact in the long-term if there is no improvement in the underlying economy.
The fact that the manufacturing and construction sectors continue to struggle is a cause for concern, as these industries are crucial for driving economic growth. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the possibility of a no-deal scenario could lead to a further decline in these sectors and damage the overall economy.
Also, globally, the growth of the economy is slowing down and major economies like Germany are close to recession, meaning that the UK cannot solely depend on the outside market for increasing its growth.
Overall, while the recent resurgence in the UK economy is a positive sign, it is important to remember that this is not necessarily indicative of long-term stability. With the UK elections coming up soon and the prospect of another Brexit deadline extension, it remains to be seen whether the UK can continue to avoid a recession in the long-term.
Given the current state of the economy, I've noticed that my portfolio has been stagnant this year despite having invested in good companies. I have a reserve of approximately $700k that I'd like to see grow. Does anyone have any suggestions for how I can adjust my investment strategy in light of the recession to improve my portfolio's performance? I appreciate any insights or advice you can share.
Its VERY obvious, the UK cannot rely on the banking world or the 'service' industry to pull us out of the mire. Unfortunately consecutive governments have seen fit to destroy our industries
and hand it over to foreign companies, that send all the wealth created in the UK abroad. Meanwhile leaving the infrastructure to die. To be honest, I dont see a future with the politicians we have controlling this country. I'm going where my talents and qualifications will count, where a fare wage for a fare days work count and a society that is growing. Australia.
Really ????
That's because all the rich just take all their money off shore and don't pay their fair share of taxes.
Paul McNamara is unfortunately a terrible interviewer. What a wasted chance to ask good follow up questions to a politician who is obviously confused himself.
Looks to me like brexit is hitting the eu far more than the uk lol why are people not talking about that. Maybe the eu need to take a look at their own countries first.
United Kingdom 0 -0.2
Italy -0.1 0.5
Turkey -0.1 1.9
Finland -0.2 -0.3
Czech Republic -0.3 -0.2
Croatia -0.4 1.5
Germany -0.4 0.5
Hungary -0.4 -0.7
Greece -0.5 0.6
Iceland -0.5 3.7
Sweden -0.6 0.6
Austria -0.7 0.2
Serbia -0.7 1.2
Lithuania -1.7 1.6
Estonia -1.8 -1.3
Poland -2.4 1
Moldova -8.4 -2.8
Meaning that the figures are being made up. Great!
The majority of people using these strategies are making significant profits; yes, the risks are larger, but isn't the ongoing business sector equally risky? From what I can discern, the go-to strategy for navigating this downturn and high expansion is momentary trading rather than long-term trading.
Who are you lot trying to kid.
We love Paul but this is embarrassing. It's ironic and not lost on me that Paul has pointed out that those following Guy McPherson are as followers of a cult. If anything screams cult this Vita Sapiens does.
Britain is turning into CATASTROPHE for its own citizens, Imigration is high , but it hides a RECORD emigration of NATIVES as far away from UK as they can get to Australia and Canada, people are tired of excuses why things are imploding. Britain is experiencing ECONOMIC MELTDOWN as we speak, by the end of decade it will leave place of 6th largest economy and end somewhere in 14th place. RIP BRITANNIA
Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make over $22,000 every single week.
Don’t have much faith in the figures either
I’ve never known it so dismal
didn't know Jorginho was into farming
So, the United Kingdom cooks its books again — 300 years of practice never goes to waste
After a horrendous 2022, shell-stunned financial backers have misfortunes to recover and a lot to consider, as an expansion report and a pile of different information did close to nothing to change assumptions that the Central bank would probably keep climbing interest rates regardless of whether the economy dials back, And that implies more red ink for portfolios for the principal quarter of year 2023. How might I benefit from the ongoing unstable market, I'm currently at a junction choosing if to exchange my $250k security/stock portfolio
I learned that the stock market was a rich man's game (yes, grandparents lost it all back then and preached that forever) but I've been around long enough to really taste how great it can be. To be profitable, with inflation at 6.1% These are surely desperate times, but in my opinion, there is no market condition that a good financial advisor cannot navigate, especially those that have existed since the crisis of 2008 and before.
Great Britain was a mighty empire. What goes up must come down and we've been coming down since 1945.
"From my perspective, this highlights the importance of having a competitive advantage as investors. Merely mirroring the market strategies of others is insufficient in achieving optimal results. I am currently grappling with the decision to invest in the current market, as it presents both uncertainty and opportunity. Could you share your insights on this matter?
Chances are we are in recession now, 6 days later
Although the companies in my portfolio are solid, last year was a loss. In my first year of investing, I experienced a 35% decline in the March/April sell-off and a further 17% decline in the most recent sell-off. I earn my money via hard work, thus investing makes me anxious and depressed. I'm uncertain if I should sell everything and wait.
I'm not even sure this is good news. We're a complacent and apathetic nation and I think the news we narrowly avoided a recession will lull us into a false sense of security, the chancellor is going on saying we're the fastest growing economy in the G7 meanwhile people are freezing and starving. These kinds of pats on the back are counter productive and undeserved.
can someone please tell me where are all the people gone every sector seems short on labour
cant all be down to brexit ?????
Literally avoided recession by 0.0000001%
Yet AGAIN "economist" predictions wrong.
Wrong at yearly levels for the last 4+ years, wrong at nearly every quarter too.
Will be wrong next year also.
Why is no one talking about this Brexit based bias?
UK is the ONLY country massively outperforming their predictions, whilst they hugely over estimate countries like DE and FR
The want brexit to be a failure so much they are doing their very best to force it to be one
by giving us a negative economic outlook, which in turn lowers investment.
They should be criminally charged.
2021 – Their UK "predictions" – 4.2% actual 7.5%
2022 – Their UK"predictions" – 3.4% now likely to be around 4.4%
Whilst Germany & France they over predicted by at least 0.5%
Energy companies, banks, and superstores make millions or billions in profits … do PM get a pay cut to help with inflation… probably not
Throwing money at the billionaires trying to become trillionaires NEVER stimulates growth.
The money has to go to the poorest who do not offshore any of it and who spend all of it
which stimulates the economy for the smallest incomes and businesses and upwards.
So it just goes to show the conservatives are deliberately ruining the economy for everyone except their billonaire friends.
It's a recession for everyone except the rich.
You’ll probably find that public sector workers live in properties they shouldn’t, drive cars they shouldn’t and buy things they shouldn’t
Yet they complain they can’t afford things
Makes no odds whether it's called as a recession or not.
People are starving and can't afford basics.
I feel one Of the greatest challenges that we first timers face in the ma rket is that we end up losing all we have,making it difficult to find ourselves back to our feet. My biggest advice is to always seek the services of a professional just like I did when I ventured into it for the first time. Big thanks to Hilson Ferguson. I now make huge profits by weekly through her services while still learning to stand on my own.
You all voted this but you live like slaves. It will never get better.
So much for the Tories being good with economics.
The reason the euroquisling left does not like English literature taught to our children is that it finds within us pride in our heritage. We are told we are petty, uneducated bigots if we don't agree with the eu, and the eu our wise and benevolent master will provide for us. "To suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles" this can be taken as if we agree to the eu ruling us today, who will we bow to tomorrow?
Europe- "Gotterdammerung, vy can ve never beat zis little island"?
He looks like Satan with a touch of Norman Bates and his a chancellor
As I told u ppl any country that takes in Lots of Muslim Refugees will/ shall go down bcuz u tryin 2 outsmart ALMIGHTY CREATOR
Incompetent, lazy, arrogant failed imperialist countries deserve a 1000 years of Allah's Wrath. Aameen
Did everyone else get the £3500? Mine must be in the post
Last week they said they were minus 2.3%. They are full of lies then.
WE ARE IN A RECESSION!!!
8:08 that is priceless, wow!
We have had two economies for years. We have the 1% economy which has very good growth and we have the 99% economy that is shrinking at a rapid rate ….. you will own nothing and you WILL be happy!
Answer: not long