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80% of day traders are unprofitable over the course of a year:
For the month of September I attempted to swing trade in the government Thrift Savings Plan. It did not go as planned.
On September 5th I made an inter-fund transfer request to move 100% C Fund to 100% G Fund when the S and P 500 closed at 2,976. I then waited 25 days and did not see a good opportunity to swing back. On September 30 I swung back in the hopes of just breaking even and the S and P 500 closed at 2,976.74. In the end, I lost a fraction of a share of the C Fund and about $2 net. It could have been worse, but I am still undecided if I will attempt this again in the future.
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LEARN MORE ABOUT: Thrift Savings Plans
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Thanks for watching everyone! Leave me a comment and give this video a like if you found it helpful. Here is my entire playlist for my government TSP videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwyLNsQHJHs&list=PLscTZuOqKWIxcH7ZW9STwVqQOY1xUKZgO
Up until last night I had everything in the C fund… now with the S&P dropping so much and all this talk about interest rates about to climb I decided to temporarily pull everything back to the G fund… everything gained since last June lost. Sigh after everything calms back down I will move back into the C. Not exactly what I would consider swing trading but if the market continues to decline and I can get back in when the market starts rebounding then I will at least have more to put back in there versus just continuing to watch it drop day after day. Great content! Thanks for sharing. Keep up the great work
There's a guy at my office who swore he made double – triple gains swing trading his TSP. I said the TSP was not made for swing trading because of reasons as explained in this video. The guy swore I was missing out on "huge gains" investing the "traditional way that everyone is doing".
I asked him how much does he have in his TSP. He said around $200K. I asked how long he's been a federal employee. He said around 11 years. I asked if he's been maxing his TSP and he said yes, "since my first year". I didn't have the heart to tell him that I haven't been maxing my TSP until this year and I have just as much. I also only been a federal employee for 8 years and my contributions were in the G Fund by default when I joined. Thank God they changed this awful auto-setting to a Lifecycle fund now.
I didn't swing trade. I invested into the C&S funds around three years after joining the feds upon learning about this from a helpful employee. I watched this asset grow from compound interest over the next several years. I didn't panic and moved my money to the G when the market crashed last year. I left it. I bought C&S shares at discounts during this time which contributed to being able to buy more shares than usual. I made nearly $50K from matching and growth last year as a result. So much for missing out on "huge gains"…
Instead of swinging the TSP have you considered rebalancing between the C and S every month.
Interesting vid. look at tspcalc. also they have a facebook page tsp seasonal strategies. If anything their vids have taught me a lot.
I want to swing trade just once to see what happens but the market keeps going up.
Jake, what if we changed our paycheck contribution limit and directed more into the G Fund, then when the price of shares drop in the C or S Fund, make an interfund transfer from the G into the C or S-this way we are not risking what is all ready sitting in the C/S Funds by moving it back and forth? I hope you understand what I am getting at.
Thx for teaching me something I was not aware of – gr8 content!!
If the TSP buy shares on your payday, would it be smart to have an IRA so if there's a dip you can take advantage of that (buy at any given day) instead of buying at whatever price the market closes on that payday?
When you submit the IFT before noon eastern, are you selling your share at closing price for that day or at the time you submitted the IFT?
Hello Jake, awesome content as always as a lot of your videos have been very helpful!
One question I had for this "swing trade" for TSP is — do you recommend also changing the contribution allocations when you do the interfund transfers? If I understand correctly, interfund transfers is when you simply "swing" from C fund to G fund, but contribution allocations is the future contributions of your TSP will go to the specified fund, is that correct?
This video is like an episode of the Berenstain Bears. “This is what you must never do.”
First of all great video. Thanks for the content. Overall I don’t like the idea of swing trading in the TSP though. I do however like the idea of keeping a stash in the G fund for targets of opportunity. For example a split like 90% C and 10% G. This way when a major market correction or collapse happens it’s good to have that money sitting in the G fund in order to take advantage of down markets. Not day to day downs, but COVID, 2008/9, kinda stuff. Just switch the money from G to your C fund when the C is way down, and when it corrects switch the 10% back to your G fund. You won’t go past your 2 IFT this way and shouldn’t ever lose money
How many years needed for tsp millionaire?
so maybe just switch to the G fund when a big crash is coming, otherwise stay on C. like now with the coronavirus. i've lost almost 10k for not moving sooner
Thank you for your honesty. I like the way you explain things, keep it up, sub and liked. I never leave any comments anywhere but that doesn't mean anything. But decided to do it today. I hope my comment can give you atleast a small smile. Thanks again
You trash l2050 Fund in another video. No swing for me 100 percent L2050 my return on the year was 23.4 percent. 10 year average almost 8.5. You need to diversify. L2055 and L2060 are coming later this year. L2060 will have the most aggressive mix in TSP history 99 percent stock to start. Glide paths for other funds will be locked so if you want aggressive then go 100 percent L2060 later this year and leave it alone.
At Jake have you tried the Seasonal Calculator and the TSPCALC website? There are over 8K strategies and you can search for the top performing ones. https://www.tspcalc.com/
Good video, good information. I have a different opinion about the timing of transfers because I don't watch prices on daily time frames. Instead, I look at prices weekly and don't really care about 2 or 3 percent moves.
I've been in the tsp for about 20 years and am nowhere near a millionaire. I also have never really done swing trading in the tsp but I'm looking to change that and that's how I found this video.
Also consider this… It takes twice the move up to recover half the move down. I think that fact emphasises the usefulness of getting out of markets at the right time.
So I’ve watched some of your videos about the TSP and the different funds. I’ve been with the government for 6 years now and my money was always in the G fund. I now switched to the C fund but after watching this video, I’m wondering if that was a good move? You mentioned that after a course of 20-30 years, it will be beneficial to have in the C fund? I am going to continue to follow you and watch your videos on the TSP! Thanks for your help and thank you for your service
Well done with correct information. I have transferred between the C and G fund for years with quite good results although I only move 20% of my overall fund as I am quite risk adverse.. This video would have saved me my first unfortunate after 11AM trade.
I really like your videos and the honesty you show. The videos are explained in ways that the average person with little knowledge of investing can understand. Thanks!