IMF’s Chief Economist Discusses Inflation Forecast, Risks of Recession, and Prospects of Fed Interest Rate Hikes

by | Apr 25, 2023 | Recession News | 17 comments

IMF’s Chief Economist Discusses Inflation Forecast, Risks of Recession, and Prospects of Fed Interest Rate Hikes




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IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke with Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger about the state of the global economy in 2023, including the energy market, unemployment, and recession fears
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The Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Gita Gopinath, recently shared her views on the inflation outlook, recession risks, and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes in a virtual event hosted by the National Press Club.

Inflation Outlook

One of the main topics of discussion was the recent surge in inflation, which has been fueled by supply chain disruptions, pent-up demand, and fiscal stimulus. Gopinath acknowledged that these factors have contributed to the current high levels of inflation but stressed that they are mostly temporary.

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She explained that as the supply chain bottlenecks are resolved and stimulus measures expire, inflation is likely to moderate back to pre-pandemic levels. However, Gopinath cautioned that if expectations of high inflation become entrenched, it could lead to a self-fulfilling cycle of price increases, which would require action from central banks.

Recession Risks

Another key concern is the risk of a recession, as the global economy continues to struggle with the pandemic’s aftermath. While the recovery has been robust in some countries, Gopinath highlighted that many emerging market and developing economies are still lagging behind.

She emphasized that a global recession remains a possibility, especially if the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus triggers more widespread restrictions and lockdowns. Therefore, Gopinath stressed the importance of continued policy support for those most affected by the pandemic, including low-income households and small businesses.

Fed Rate Hikes

Lastly, Gopinath touched on the Fed’s recent announcement to start tapering its asset purchases and eventually raise interest rates. She noted that the U.S. economy has performed better than expected, with robust growth and a low unemployment rate.

However, Gopinath cautioned that an abrupt tightening of monetary policy could have negative consequences for the global economy, particularly for emerging market and developing economies. She urged the Fed to carefully consider the implications of its policy decisions and their potential impacts on the rest of the world.

In conclusion, Gopinath’s comments reflect the ongoing uncertainty and challenges facing the global economy in the wake of the pandemic. While the prospects for future growth remain uncertain, policymakers must remain vigilant and act decisively to address any potential risks to the recovery.

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17 Comments

  1. Goyaman

    These economist have no idea what might happen, but the American people are experiencing the recession in real time.

  2. Goyaman

    WTF is he talking about, Warren Buffett just said something different than what this guy is estimating.

  3. Naomi Gonzales

    Heard someone say the best season for a fin.ancial breakthrough is now, especially with inflation running at a four-decade high. I have approximately $250k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?

  4. jason guidolin

    resilient economy eh? tell that to the growing number of homeless folks …. The numbers are fake, simple as that

  5. phillips wright

    Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today

  6. Sulaiman Mutiyat

    Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today..

  7. Simpiwe Maqwara

    Does this mean we can expect other higher interest rates?

  8. Emilia Chidester

    CLIMATE CHANGE AND IT'S ECONOMIC OUTCOME WILL NOT BE PRETTY, EVEN THE U.S.A COULD GO BROKE OVER CATASTROPHES CAUSE BY CLIMATE CHANGE. TO GROW FOOD WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE, TO MOVE GOODS WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE, WE AS A SOCIETY HAVE TO GET READY.

  9. Dank Wolf

    This idiot keeps saying "maybe" and "could." He clearly knows nothing and is just sputtering pure speculation.

  10. charles mcalister Rogers

    inflation is not growth ! if I pay 2 dollars last year for lettuce and now 6 dollars that's not real growth you moron financial people.

  11. prygler

    Did IMF ever predict a recession before? FED predicted 0 of the last 8 recessionens. Inverted yield curve and 10 best leading indicators together predicted recessions 8/8 of the last 8 recessions.

  12. Armenianheat

    Everything is fine!!!

  13. Fred Mucio

    Happy New year 2023

  14. Fred Mucio

    Gas prices will go up diesel fuel too inflation is coming be ready all

  15. Sandy

    When was this interview done? Before the January 2023 or after?

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