Increasing Evidence Suggests Stocks May Be Anticipating a Future Recession in 2023 | The Pattern of History Repeats Itself

by | Aug 24, 2023 | Recession News | 30 comments




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More Evidence Points to Stocks Pricing In a Recession in 2023 | History Likes to Repeat

As we approach the end of 2021, economists and financial experts are starting to speculate about the likelihood of a recession in the near future. While the economy has been recovering steadily from the COVID-19 pandemic, recent data and historical patterns suggest that stocks may be pricing in a recession in 2023.

One of the most significant pieces of evidence pointing towards a potential recession is the inverted yield curve. Historically, an inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, has been a reliable indicator of an impending economic downturn. This pattern has preceded every recession in the past 60 years, including the dot-com crash in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008.

Currently, the yield curve has not yet inverted, but it has been flattening, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth. If the trend continues, we could see an inversion by 2023, suggesting a recession could be around the corner.

Another factor hinting at a downturn is the increasing household debt levels. Over the past few years, consumer debt has been on the rise, reaching record highs. When consumers have excessive debt burdens, they are less likely to spend and invest, which can weaken economic growth. As a result, a recession becomes more likely as consumer sentiment and spending begin to decline.

Furthermore, a shrinking jobs market and declining consumer confidence are additional signals of a potential recession. Although the unemployment rate has improved since the height of the pandemic, some industries continue to struggle, and many workers have left the workforce altogether. This could have long-term implications for the economy and hint at an underlying weakness that could trigger a recession in the years to come.

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History has shown us time and again that economic patterns tend to repeat themselves. While each recession has its unique causes, certain indicators tend to precede economic downturns. By closely analyzing these patterns, investors and economists can make more informed predictions about the future state of the economy.

However, it is important to note that while there is mounting evidence pointing towards a recession in 2023, nothing is set in stone. The economy is highly complex and influenced by various factors, including government policies, geopolitical events, and unforeseen circumstances. It is also possible that policymakers can take necessary actions to prevent a recession or mitigate its impact.

For investors, this potential recession is an essential piece of information to consider when making long-term investment decisions. It may be wise to reassess one’s portfolio, diversify investments, and adopt a more cautious approach to risk. Companies that have historically weathered recessions well, such as those in essential sectors like healthcare or utilities, may be worth considering.

While the future may seem uncertain, understanding historical trends and current economic indicators allows us to make better-informed decisions. By acknowledging the mounting evidence pointing to a recession in 2023, individuals can be better prepared to navigate potential challenges and opportunities in the financial landscape.

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30 Comments

  1. charlotte pauline

    The cause of this recession is most likely external. The United States is losing influence as a government reserve currency for the first time in decades. Less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past, and there are no more economies to utilize to control inflation. They all provide evidence in favor of the theory that a new multilateral global order is being created.

  2. Dee Jay

    Thats a weak trendline you made on the s&p…like i never seen a trendline that only touched at 1 point

  3. Sven Grot

    Tying up money due to an apocalyptic stock market crash is also not a smart move. Life is a risk and it's better to take risks than to do nothing, you can't always expect to make huge profits all the time, people have so many opinions about a recession/depression. In just 5 months my portfolio grew by $300,000 in gross profit, the main thing is to expand your portfolio and you will see amazing results by investing

  4. XPkoolXD

    your entire thesis is there was a downtrend 60 years ago that looks like the first half of recent years but doesn't look like the current uptrend so therefore we should all panic. What a stupid video. You wasted so many people's time with this.

  5. bob fletch

    I would say TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECISSION! Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

  6. RohseJones

    With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly—which means more red ink for portfoIios this quarter. How can I proft from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfoIio.

  7. Leona Rodwell

    The stock market rally run is over but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.

  8. Patricia Carlos

    This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

  9. Laura clover

    I'm surprised that no one is talking about 2yr Treasury note is 3.92% that is well below the FED Funds Rate of 5%-5.25%…Which clearly indicates that a Full Blown Crisis along with an Emergency FED Pivot are days away. as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.

  10. William Johnson

    Do Wall Street and the corporate buy-backers really expect intelligent people to buy into a market that is 40% overvalued, while at the same time enduring a possible debt default every year? Not if you are 65 or older, that's for sure. So we just sit and wait, while drawing our 4%. Sooner or later there will be a crash. The higher she goes, the harder she falls.

  11. Mr.Pickle

    fight the fed works baby $$$ I love ZERO risk buying SPY dips for free money $$$ markets crushing permabears one youtuber at a time $$$

  12. Canada Canada

    Draw any upper boundary for the downward trend you want,
    you are just kidding yourself.
    It already broke the downward trend line since Jan 2022.
    You just moved the upper line up.
    Shortard in self denial.

  13. Mindful Maven

    The relationship between external factors such as inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decisions and their impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is truly intriguing. As the financial landscape undergoes rapid transformation, it becomes crucial to recognize the increasing significance of alternative assets like Bitcoin and embrace adaptive, innovative approaches. In the midst of these market shifts, it is commendable that individuals like Marisa Nguyen are thriving by utilizing effective trading strategies. Her success in amassing 32 BTC within just three weeks highlights her profound market knowledge, expertise, and well-deserved reputation as a visionary in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

  14. Andrew Keith

    so ya gotta give time frame… price volume time… most important thing in TA … for me… when is the recession? MAY? dude no… it could be august… have you mentioned CFTC net position and the potential for that to squeeze us higher temporarily.. yes i agree recession is coming… but timing is everything.. we are traders… and some investors here are gonna wait on certain stocks that are great buys right now ( which is not tech) i mean look at QQQ/IWM.. get it together man. last chance to buy bitcoin was 47k huh

  15. Steven Fetzer

    John 6:37 All that the Father giveth me shall come to me; and him that cometh to me I will in no wise cast out.

  16. Anthony Russell

    What amazes me is the fact that the news and media are all going about a recession which is understandable due to the war and pandemic but still the same media still publish articles about folks in the same economy pulling off hefty 6figure profit(Averg. 200k in barely 8weeks) in this downtrend how is that possible?

  17. Susan Nico

    The most important thing that should be on everyone's mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.

  18. Robert Lu

    I would like to see if you can short S&P index 500 🙂

  19. Jake

    The market is not crashing, because your bearish big boys using you as an sentiment indicator.

  20. KingTiger : CrownEstate

    2:34 It looks like the market was front running the expectation of a Fed rate hikes before it actually began perhaps because of hawkish comments or other various signals starting to trigger.

    If the rate of inflation was starting to get very high that would have been something that began to spook the markets and investors knowing that Fed rate hikes were on the way.

    You cannot say that the market was not very much front running an expectation of something bearish though it began going down well before the rate hikes began PROBABLY in anticipation because of the high inflation rates.

  21. moore author

    reading about people grabbing multi-figures monthly as incomes in investments even in this crazy days in the market, any pointers on how to make substantial progress in earning? would be appreciated.

  22. Albert Insinger

    Debt ceiling might mean markets tumble and gold goes up. GDX etf is a good play for gold. To be traded not held for ever.

  23. Risbo Ricbu

    Not sure why are you saying that markers are going down when they are actually going up.

  24. Nicholas Handisen

    I appreciate the level of detail you give as you explain. Very easy to understand for any level of investor. Thank you!

  25. Logan Jackson

    The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations what matters is knowing where to look. I have been diversifying into the stock sector and trading aggressive through an advisor. Away from all the distractions around I still make profits from my investments, made $300,000 last year.

  26. Calin Bucur

    What about the FED sounds dovish? Everything I've heard from Powell so far is nothing of the sort. Quite the contrary, he keeps saying that there will be no pivot in 2023 and obsessively repeats the fact that their main focus is to bring down inflation to 2%. What am I missing?

  27. Darnell Capriccioso

    Given the prevailing market conditions and the potential risks associated with the current economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.

  28. C GR

    Interesting to note that if you apply the weekly SPX down channel to the daily SLY 600 smallcap index, it is spot on and perfectly parallel.

  29. Poker Genius Or Donkey

    We have so much more information and analysis in 2023. Everyone else, also has much more information and analysis. Therefore, I somewhat expect adjustments to happen earlier and quicker.

    Today's market is also yesterday's and tomorrow's market.

    My thought is to keep your eyes on the ball and make many small moves and avoid making big one time moves.

    Volatility is the new norm.

    Thanks for the videos.

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