Inflation and bond fund returns are a disaster right now. Inflation is killing buying power and bond funds are suffering from rising interest rates. I detail what I am personally doing with my portfolio. Financial Independence Retire Early.
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I am not a Financial Advisor. The content of these videos is not intended to be advice, but rather to tell my experience (good and bad), my story and my lessons learned; they are for your entertainment only. Seek professional advice before making any financial decision including when to become financially independent and/or retire early.
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Professionally, I am is first and foremost a plant manager, leader and now an entrepreneur. I have been a plant manager 3 times (largest plant $1.5B in sales / 2000 employees), a large department manager twice, an engineer, and due to results and methods, I was appointed the global director of reliability and maintenance for a Fortune 200 company.
My unique approach to driving reliability results come from not only my 35 years of experience, but also by combining Lean and Reliability best practices (I am a CMRP and have extensive Lean/Six-sigma training internal to Alcoa). Lean provides the waste focus and drives understanding of current state which has proven to be the “secret sauce” to achieving sustainable, scalable and rapid results — most often in just weeks. Lean, as a general rule, has not been applied to maintenance and reliability — and is fertile ground. Don’t let this sound complicated — it is very basic: Know current state through observation and the required actions will present themselves. ALL best practices target waste elimination.
Financial Independence Retire Early – This channel started to change the maintenance and reliability consulting industry. Viewers began to ask for content on my FIRE journey (I retired at 54 yo). I am happy to share my story, successes, failures, and lessons learned. The content is intended to make you think and create your story. My path is my path — not right or wrong. Again, I am not a financial advisor — I’m a story teller. My hope is you will have less fear and more success by hearing my journey….(read more)
LEARN ABOUT: Investing During Inflation
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
HOW TO INVEST IN SILVER: Silver IRA Investing
OK Joe I have something real interesting that happened. I pulled 100% out of the market on April 25th. Not due to any plan other than we were moving from an online investment firm (T Rowe) to a local fee based advisor. T Rowe said they have to snail mail the check so they pulled all of our accounts out of the market on April 25th but it took the check until May 20th to reach the new firm. The market tanked that whole time so they did me a huge favor. But now that it is at the new firm I told them to hold up a bit on putting it in the investments we had discussed previously. It's safely in a money market account for now. My question is, if you were in this position, would you put it all back in the market today? Would you dollar cost average it over the next year? Would you wait just a bit a see where it looks like the market is going since I strongly feel it's still going down? I know you aren't supposed to time the market but it just feels right to me to sit and wait a bit bit more. What would you do? The advisor did not put up any resistance when I told him to wait for now. He said it really worked in my favor being out for the last month.
THANK YOU!!!!!!!
Another good bond is VAIPX down -7% 1yr. Good video love your channel thanks!
You're 88% stocks
I like your videos. 18 months from potential retirement myself. My plan was to do a form of the bucket approach also. I just recently purchased iBonds at a 9.62% rate for first 6 months. You can buy another $10k for each account yearly– so if rates stay high, I will buy more in 2023.
Great information again. Gave me something to think about
very insightful Joe, great as always!
Bonds just ended a 40-yr bull market. You can’t just print money forever. Best to move to fixed income for the next couple of years until we see a bottom in the stock market.
I am middle-aged European and I have the same problem, recently I decided on 20% bonds in my portfolio since times are very uncertain and I am risk averse so to speak, my setup is 10% Amundi Index Breakeven Inflation USD 10y UCITS ETF DR (10 year breakeven inflation expectations TIPS) , 5% Vanguard USD Treasury Bond UCITS ETF (all maturities treasuries), 5% Amundi Prime US Treasury Bond 0-1 Y UCITS ETF DR USD (ultra short safe treasuries)
Bought I-Bonds this year as well. Plan to use for kids college…use for education no Fed Tax on the interest!!
Your investments will tank, rise some and flatline over the next 8 years. Inflation will continue to rise and chew away at your moneys value
Here you go folks:
https://youtu.be/D_WAI2XShXk
Greg Foss is the man!
Look folks…if you're still in bonds, I implore you…you must dump those and buy bitcoin. Most people on YouTube won't give financial advice…I will…bonds are negative yielding in inflationary environments like this one. Don't be an idiot…dump your bonds now! Buy Microstrategy stock, greyscale bitcoin futures etf,or Bitcoin itself. In five years, you'll be thanking me. If you buy Ibonds, you're still subject to the false CPI…Inflation is way more than the 8.5%…just look at your gas, food, energy, and water bills…inflation is at least 50%…let's get real folks.
Inflation is destroying the bonds return and we should add a management fee to it.????
Great i-bond discovery, I have 9 years left on 30 year duration purchased in 2001 when fixed component was +3%. So cumulative is 10%+, about to reset north of 12% in May….unreal! As for the equities that you're "happy with", consider selling high…"what goes up, must go down….(spinning wheels). For those nearing or in retirement be careful! As Joe says, information trumps fear…..but be adequately informed.
Most of my IRA retirement is in the American Funds target date fund…2025. Will retire in 2-3 years. Hands off, and I’m paying American Funds very little to manage it. Opinions? Also, bought an I Bond in November and January. Getting my wife to do the same. Great idea, with so little downside.
You can buy floating rate bond etfs that go up with interest rates USFR, FCT, PFLT.
Joe, I know most people say to ignore Indexed Annuities because of the commissions. But I’m an insurance agent so the commission goes to me so I usually put my “safe money” meaning the money I don’t ever want affected by market drops into indexed annuities. I usually expect them to get about 3 to 4% interest each year and over most of the years I’ve had them (around 15 years) that’s been just about what they do. BUT in more recent years they have been paying unbelievable interest. When I open my last few statements my jaw has dropped. Last year one paid me 17% interest. That’s not counting any commission I got for being the agent. It was a real 17% as the annuity owner. I really couldn’t believe it. I never thought a product that locks in the interest and can’t ever lose your principle or the interest you already got could ever pay anything near that. BUT I just got my statement on another one last week that’s even better. This one locks in every two years rather than every 1-year like most. But two years ago it locked in at $95,000 (it had taken 4-years to get to 95 from the original $85,000 I originally paid into it. But this two year period it went from $95 to $148,000. I would have never believed than an indexed annuity could do this. But it did. I know annuities get tons of bad press because they are very confusing to learn about and are often sold by people who over promise. Even though I’m licensed to sell them (all life insurance agents are) I don’t other than to myself and a couple people who have come to me specifically asking for them. I make my living selling life insurance and Medicare insurance. But I would encourage you to expand your knowledge of these. I would certainly be happy to let you look at mine and shoot all the holes in it you want to. But I think for the money you are putting back for a longer term that you don’t want exposed to the market downturns (this one is a 12-year annuity meaning I can only pull a max of 10% per year out without penalty during the 12-year period.) After 12-years I can walk away with all of my principle and interest.) I think indexed annuities are hard to beat IF you buy the right ones. There are a lot of junk ones out there also with very low caps.
Balanced funds are managed funds as you mentioned. But managed funds always lose med-long term to index funds and you pay a higher expense ratio. looking into I-bonds. Thanks!
You are paying an active fund manager for stupidity. Bonds and cash are the riskiest asset because its a guaranteed loss. Stick with single stocks that pay a solid dividend like JNJ and 3M.
The $10k purchase limit per SSN per year severely limits their usefulness in larger portfolios, unfortunately.
Just retired at 59…60/40 Portfolio. And you are right about bonds…So I have DODLX, FMSDX, TIPX, ICSH…basically I have major multi-asset funds to do work for me…throw in tips and a short term bond fund and I have all bases covered.
Why would you in invest in American funds? They are loaded funds in which they are some of the highest sales charge in the industry. With all the no load funds this is ludicrous.
This is exactly why I don't invest…it would stress me out. The assumption must be I must have a ton of money….nope. Right now I have about $25k in cash and my home. That's it. "No way dude you can retire safely on that!!!" Well, I retired 20 years ago at 45 and basically been in the same position this entire time. I did start with $100K cash but had a $2200/mo mortgage payment. I originally was just taking a few months off. But I saw my spending drop which caused me to see that I could be very happy without spending a lot. Had to get rid of that mortgage so I fixed up that San Jose CA home, sold in late 2004 netting $400k. Moved to Phoenix and bought a new house with cash. Hated that house because it was new, but boom market, can't be choosey. Sold after 6 months (still booming) for $60k profit. Brought more central older home. Repeated this 3 times to remove cash from homes and that's how I've funded retirement. I enjoy fixing up a home once in awhile….no deadlines so it's fun. All gains have been tax free (even the 6 month one). Real estate I can understand. I did invest before I retired and didn't do well at all because it didn't interest me.
What are the purpose of bonds? I see them as a risk reducer in my portfolio. During the 70’s with high inflation and rising interest rates bonds did just fine. But, with all that said all of my bonds are in a balanced fund. Vanguard Wellesley income fund. Like everything else it’s down year to date. Only about 4% but not what I wanted to see my first year in retirement.
Most people don’t realize how risky bonds can be with rising interest rates. Principal loss can be higher than stocks. Thanks for the info on iBonds but with the $10,000 limit per SSN and holding periods its usefulness is limited. With inflation and money market rates so low there really is no safe place to invest. I still put almost all my money in index funds and funds that I believe will beat the S&P 500 such as bio-tech and clean energy. Advances in decoding the human genome will lead to big breakthroughs in cancer. With advances in batteries and solar power and government mandates for carbon free energy this will be the next big growth sector. Call me in a decade.
Your expense ratio is far higher than the bond yields. I bet you could do it yourself for free and do as well
What is web site to buy i bonds ?
Thanks
Also, on Bonds or Bond funds. I'm probably 40% bond funds (50/50 short/medium term in Vanguard) and yes, they are getting beaten down. However, eventually, the older bonds in the fund retire and the backfill ones are getting higher rates. I'm not an expert but I think in the long-term, they will do fine and revert to normal. And I'm a good 5 years from even having to tap any. In fact, I'm still dollar-cost averaging (buying regularly) into them.
I Bonds are GOLD. Yes. I am full in and even over-full. There's a "gifting" element too where you can gift someone ANY amount. So my wife and I are cross-gifting. e.g. I bought her $10K worth, she can't receive it yet because she's already purchased $10K in '22 but it starts earning the current interest now and I can then gift it to her next Jan. 1st when her 2023 bucket can get $10K (and she does the same from her gift box to me). That will fill the 2023 $10K limit right away for each of us but we are getting these crazy interest rates now. And the 1 year mandatory "hold" starts when you buy the gift.
Pretty new viewer, and I appreciate the videos I’ve seen. You’re clear spoken, down to earth, and helpful. At 54 I’m a year or two away from pulling the early retirement trigger and your videos give me confidence I’m on the right path. Oh, and I also bought my $10k of iBonds about a month ago. It’s paying more than the rest of my cash bucket combined!
I also plan 4 years in bucket 1 (currently at 2.7 so need to "top up" at some point). However the rest is in equities. I don't bother with bonds at all, I just sell small slices of capital to keep bucket 1 full.