Kevin Muir is one of the most widely followed macro bloggers in the fintwit community and former head of a derivatives desk at a large Canadian bank. He walks us through his thesis on why MMT is inevitable in the US and its impact on macro assets including steeper yield curve, higher gold prices and lower USD.
Macro background and investment style (0:00 – 20:52)
Using Koyfin, we discuss:
MMT and why it will cause inflation (20:53 – 29:07)
Inflation breakevens (25:00 – 32:03)
The steepening yield curve (32:03 – 35:45)
Trading higher inflation via TIPS (35:45 – 39:17)
QE impact on bond yields (39:17 – 50:00)
QE impact on financial asset prices (50:00 – 57:57)
Short term bearish EUR, long term bullish (57:57 – 1:00:57)
GBPUSD prarie dog formation (1:00:57 – 1:02:13)
Bearish Europe equities SX5E (1:02:13 – 1:05:41)
European banks technical analysis (1:05:41 – 1:08:12)
Bullish Gold (1:08:12 – 1:05:41)
Favorite TV Show: Catastrophe (1:16:04 – 1:19:27)
You can follow Kevin’s newsletter on his substack:
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if the spread of the 5 and 30 widen, its going to be great for stocks, shit hits the fan when the shorter bond is higher than the longer, and that would be a great time to go long long term bonds and short the stocks.,
Index: Kevin Muir from Toronto, Canada, former RBC Dominion Securities, Institutional Equities Derivatives Trader, then 20 yrs trading own account.
21:00 Starts to take about MMT
28:43 Offers 2-3 trade TIPS based on his analysis above (Gold, Real-Estate, Break-evens (diff betw TIPS & Nominal Bond Rate), TIPS IEF, )
Discuss MMT, inflation vs deflation, gov't spending vs QE, etc.
57:50 Discuss Euro, etc. SX5E short stock index, gold long, etc
1:13:00 Macro chain ideas, themacrotourist.substack.com blog, kevin@themacrotourist.substack.com,
1:15:35 Best movie to watch
This was awesome Rob, thanks for the introduction to the bonds world, and btw , IB is far better that the other online brokers to trade bonds given the ample portfolio they carry
These interviews have been great! It's always interesting to hear how guys like Kevin are looking at things.
Fantastic guest, thanks!
Of all the times that I've talked to Kevin, I had no idea that he was a trader. All we talked about were cars. Next time I see him, he's buying the beers
Great content guys! Loved that Catastrophe was mentioned as well lol
Such a great conversation . Loved it! Thanks to both of you Rob and Kevin .
Great interview. One other trade that becomes obvious if Kevin is correct is Value over Growth. Growth hates inflation (see 70's after Nifty Fifty peak) and banks (Value) would love a steeper curve.
Oh man, I feel that contrarian wanting to get out of a trade when it starts running. It's hard to let them run!
A+ Interview. You folks need to real start pushing this content to Instagram. You have an account and it would be reposted quickly. Think about it. Keep up the great content.
A great interview. Kevin is a special chap in his honesty!
Really enjoyed this especially the discussion on MMT, well done. Agree with EURUSD and DXY overall and Stocks short term and long term view. Good idea to short euro stocks rather than us stocks.