Inflation has turned from transitory to pernicious, with some economists even raising the specter of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral. Should you reposition your investment portfolio for an inflationary environment, shifting some of your money to sectors or asset classes that tend to do well during inflationary periods? Or should you leave your investments alone and let the markets control their long-term destiny? In today’s video we look at market history to see how securities prices are affected by inflation, interest rates and interest rate hikes.
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You should revisit your video about John Law. This the end of the dollar bubble.
The Market has been pretty bad until today it decided to surge. Everybody was Practically Crying then. It kept dipping. That's what you get when you feel you can navigate the process on your own. Big thank to Hilder Ferguson. I'm not bothered with how bad the Market is because my assests are insured due to her advice and I still receive my profits
Really nice content and very high value info
pd: theres it something with the audio that doesnt feel right, try to adjust the mic or equalizer!! cheers
The specter of wage-price spiral is an interesting one because, simply put, it isn't actually happening right now. From my own assessment of analysis out of Australia and New Zealand, inflation is largely the fault of firms increasing, or in some cases, not decreasing, profit margins. This means that, at the current time, inflation is largely being eaten by increases in firms profit margins, and an increasing profit take. In Australia this means that something like 60% of inflation is made up of firms increasing their profits, with general corporate revenue up 39% year on year.
I think its time to take a step back from the Wage-price spiral and start talking about why firms are willing to increase profit, at the cost of consumer confidence and market growth, almost across the board, while inflation continues to spiral driving increasing hardship and wealth inequality.
We could've used this in 2021 Patrick….. Now we've been decimated.
And yet we still didn't get an answer. It seems there's no solution
Outstanding video! Fact-driven and a clear flow making it enjoyable to follow you
BUY THE DIP
I will forever be indebted to you you've changed my whole life l continue to preach about your name for the world to hear you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment of $30k thanks so much Mrs Catherine Nathan.
The real money in investments will have to be made as most of it has been made in the past, not out of buying and selling but out of owning and holding securities, receiving dividends and increases in value. Thanks inflation, I believe now is the best time to buy financially stable dividend stocks.
Great info as always
Latin america is not for amateurs
No discussion of hard assets such as real estate or precious metal
Most times it amazes me greatly the way I move from an average lifestyle to earning over 63k per month, utter shock is the word. I have understood a lot in the past few years to doubt that opportunities abound in the financial markets, The only thing is to know where to focus.
0:25 SA80 from the left shoulder? Gotta be airsofter’s
<Getting Money is an issue that everyone has in order to live a better and more luxurious life. Life was difficult for me
until I began mining crypto . I'm now earning so much gains even with the current crash happening in the trading
market.
Patrick, What do you make of Ray dalio's effective claim that looking at these stock markets can confuse us because it's focused on the rise of the american empire, and that there maybe a new rising power (such as china)? Do you think people should be focusing on Global equities to hedge against the risk of US Market decline?
3:00, 3:40, 4:38 What is going on with Austria?
It's inflation on everything except wages….. So, just a scam
What is the difference between 'real' interest rates and official interest rates? The video seems to jump between using these two terms without clarification.
Vaccination is at the root of the 120-year success story Patrick spends so much time lionizing. For this roaring success story to continue, vaccination rates must continue to rise. In the productive parts of the USA, vaccination rates are high, and in the less developed parts of the US, where economic growth is uneven and poverty is high, vaccination is discounted and attacked. If we do not maintain the success rate of preventive health measures that we had in the past, modern economies will collapse or disappear.
Vaccination is a millennium-long success story. From variolation in medieval Asia, to inoculated Ottoman troops bringing the process to the west, (where it was promoted by Benjamin Franklin and Cotton Mather), to the discovery of vaccines by Jenner, vaccination has been the ultra-low cost preventative miracle. Along with mass literacy, clean water, and the steam engine, it made our world possible. We owe its promoters an epic debt.
Anti-vaccination sentiment is a threat to economies and societies that is even more persistent and merciless than Putine.
This is truly excellent work ! Though it means Patrick will never have a job in mainstream media….why? Because he uses accurate data and facts, explains things clearly and without bias, and is intelligent, articulate, straightforward and professional 🙂
https://youtu.be/-WyJ0SLJa-s. You were wrong Peanut Butter.
Patrick didn't you short an already %100 shorted stock?
How much did you invest into oil 2 years ago when it was negative now it's +$100 a barrel?
Sorry, got referred to your channel & I'm trying to understand why.
nice chart, but why invent your own country codes?
What's wrong with the widely used, universally recognizable country codes?
Ok thanks
well most economists are wrong cause were fked now. not 2023
We gotta talk about the wage-price-spiral, since it is mentioned in the video description.
Since it is often described as a driver of inflation, when it is in fact a symptom of it.
But the basics first. Inflation comes from an increase in the amount of money in circulation, or a decrease of the effective buying power of that money, through shortages in goods.
Today money is created exclusively through the extension of loans. As a bank can loan more money than they actually have.
This means that if a bank holds a dollar they can give out several dollars in loans.
Money is on the other end only destroyed through paying back those loans. Or more rigorously through a default on those loans.
This ultimately leaves the economy with a surplus of money in the size of the lack of coverage the bank initially had.
And new loans again increase the amount of money, as the loan (as long as no interest is paid on it, can be paid back in full with the money now in the market, and the bank is now able to extend even more loans, they lack the coverage of)
What needs to be understood however, is how our economy has been working over the past decades. Since money paid in wages is mostly used exclusively for the coverage of living expenses and paiment for services, while money given especially in the higher income places is used mostly for investments.
These investments however create a false sense of scope of the actual value of money.
We have seen many companies in recent years being invested in despite not making profits for years. This drives down the prices of the goods and services these companies can offer, which in turn decreases the required money to pay ones living expenses.
It creates a false sense of stable money value, while the actual amount of money increases drastically.
However the effect of this is a massive increase in the value of assets, both financial and real, which we have seen in the exploding value of stocks, bonds, and real estate.
These increases in value however do not lead to an immediate increase in living expenses, as buying a house that is rented out does not guarantee the ability to increase rents to cover the initial costs easily. Most countries having strong restrictions in the amount rents can be increased.
Likewise stock value increases do not have an actual real life effect. It doesnt matter if a company is valued at a few million or a few hundred billion, as the company itself does not gain or spend money from those transactions. Instead this creates an environment in which money is mostly used to be reinvested.
This constant investment and reinvestment binds a large portion of the actual amount of money in circulation, which decreases the amount of money that is used for goods.
So companies can reduce the cost of products, without decreasing wages.
However this only works long term, if the economy of scale eventually makes these companies profitable. For this to happen, the economy can't ever go into recession. And resource prices need to remain stable.
There is also the problem of investment values eventually catching up to the people that require these assets in their day to day life.
We now in the most recent years have seen both. Rent price increases well above inflation level, massive inflation, due to an increase in resource prices throughout most of the most important sectors of the economy, and thus a plunge into inflation.
Having said this, we can see that we have to make a difference between monetary inflation and product price inflation.
Monetary inflation is the classic understanding of inflation. An increase in the volume of money on the market, and product price inflation is the real inflation people actually expirience in their day to day lives.
With the current crisies we see a very sudden increase in product price inflation, and this is due to two things.
The value of assets finally catching up with consumers, especially in the real estate market, and the lack of resources on the market driving the prices for products up.
Since right now the product price inflation is kept virtually low through the investment markets, wages have been staying close to the same value for years.
However, with assets, especially real estate values having sky rocketed over the past years, and a lack of rent price limitations in large parts of the western world, we see that both the price to buy a home, as well as the price to rent a home are slowly catching up to the investment prices.
We see that these prices, both to buy homes, as well as to rent homes are increasing well faster than inflation.
This means that many people are less and less able to afford the required prices for basic living necessities.
Now product prices attempt to stay low, but due to resource shortages, we now see a steep increase in living expenses all around.
As most people already only just make enough money to afford living expenses, this leads to an outright necessity to increase wages.
The alternative to increasing wages will in the long term be large scale unemployment, and the economy falling apart, especially hitting investors.
Now companies have two options how to increase wages, both of which will hit the investment market and by necessity lead to the product price inflation catching up to the monetary inflation.
Option one is cutting wages and boni towards the higher ups in a company, essentially equalizing the pay between low payed work and high payed work to a degrees.
This leads to people that today use most of their money losing the option to use that money for investments, which leads to an eventual decline in investment volumes and prices, as less money is in the investment system, and more money is in the real economy.
This in turn would lead to a lot more people being able to start their own companies, which eventually leads to rising product prices, either through the established companies, or through the newly establishing companies, as consumers are now able to pay more for products, and so companies will be able to ask more for products.
The alternative is to increase all wages, and keeping the differences between low pay work and high pay work the same. However, this leads to a "wage-price-spiral" as then the higher wages need to be paid for through higher product prices, which in turn leads to higher wage requirements.
This would then continue until the monetary inflation and the product price inflation are in line, which leads to a massive decrease in asset values over that time.
But there is also the risk, that if banks are complicit in this process, that the increase in product and wage values leads to a massive increase in loans extended, which in turn leads to monetary inflation increasing potentially at the same rate as the wage and product prices do, which then leads to an actual wage price spiral.
So what are the solutions here?
Of course increasing interest rates is the first step, as higher interest rates lead to more money being removed from the market in the long run. However this can only work so much, since the biggest spender in the US, the US government will still get loans at 0%.
And of course increased interest rates also lead to a slower investment market, and again an overreliance on real assets. As the prices of those real assets are however already artificially inflated, this would be just as unsustainable as the "classic wage-price-spiral"
It also leads to a consolidation of the market, making it extremely hard for anyone to start new businesses. Which again slows the investment market.
Ultimately the best option would be to force wage increases for low pay workers and wage decreases on high pay employees. Combined with a massive increase of real interest rates.
The investment market will suffer either way. And if the goal is for the economy to sustain the population, to avoid mass unemployment, homelessness, and the resulting potential violent revolts and mass protests, this is the most reasonable way to go.
It avoids a wage-price-spiral to go beyond leveling out wages with current living expenses.
It of course in the long run creates a situation, where wealth will be harder to acquire and especially to keep. But it would calm the market and inflation the fastest way possible, without risking a collapse both economically and politically.
EDIT: Another note on real interest. Anther option to increase real interest would also be increased taxation of investment and companies, as this leads to a smaller amount of money being created at the extremely low interest rates that governments pay, and increase the amount of money being loaned on high interest rates.
It also decreases the value of investments, taking a larger share of the money in circulation in the investment circle and thus reducing overall inflation.
Of course all of these options lead to a massive decrease in economic growth in the long run, which is a problem in itself, since we quickly end up in deflation cycles as we have seen during the great depression. This leads to less employment, which in turn makes he wage increases less significant, which in turn leads to the government having to spend vastly more on welfare, which in turn means more money has to be created for low interest rates.
Either way, unless the real economy recovers, any solution to inflation will inevitably lead to an economic recession. But since the same holds true with inflation remaining high, the best we can hope for is a solution, that harms everyone equally and brings the economy onto a level in which growth is again possible and sustainable.
Thanks Patrick! A must watch…as great as ever.
I spam liked your vids because I believe you should have way more subscribers
Love the vid
How do bills ever end up with a return rate higher than inflation? Isn't inflation a measure of the depreciation of bills? I'm missing something.
Hello b0ss bideo about DRS pleaz
One of the most imporant videos I’ve seen in 2022.
I recommend to watch it at least twice!
Thanks for the new video.
"…One takeaway is that investors might want to consider adjusting their stock/bond allocations over time, based on hiking and cutting cycles."
Wish I'd done that! My instinct is to hunker down and wait out bad weather, and it's cost me a lot this year.
great stuff
Real estate is the best inflation hedge.
Your loan value actually goes down with the depreciating value of the dollar while at the sam4 time your property value goes up.
Stocks can’t touch it.
good content thanks