Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, discusses the major threats to the economy, how a recession is defined by the NBER, and the sectors and jobs most at risk from a pending economic contraction.
*This video was recorded on June 23, 2023
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0:00 – Intro
1:10 – Fed pause and stocks
5:28 – Credit contraction
11:00 – Interest rate direction
14:00 – Delinquency rate on credit cards
19:20 – Economy is stressed
21:00 – Retail sales
24:11 – Probability of a recession
30:55 – Bear market rally
33:30 – NBER definition of recession
40:48 – When is the recession coming?
44:00 – Jobs most at risk
48:50 – Real estate
55:55 – “Unbelievable collapse in demand”
#economy #investing #recession…(read more)
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Are Millions About to Lose Jobs as Recession Nears?
With the global economy reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns about an imminent recession and job losses have become increasingly prevalent. As businesses shut down, supply chains break, and consumer demand plummets, economies worldwide are grappling with major disruptions. As a result, millions of jobs are at risk, and the potential for a devastating economic downturn looms large.
The current crisis has led to an unparalleled shock to many industries. Sectors such as travel, hospitality, retail, and entertainment have been particularly hard-hit, witnessing drastic declines in revenue and widespread lay-offs. The air travel industry, for instance, has seen a significant reduction in flights, leading to substantial job losses for pilots, flight attendants, and ground staff. Similarly, hotels and restaurants have struggled to stay afloat with limited demand, causing thousands of workers to be furloughed or permanently laid off.
The slowdown in economic activity is not limited to specific sectors. The cascading effects of supply chain disruptions are felt across industries, with manufacturing, construction, and even technology sectors experiencing setbacks. Small and medium-sized businesses, often major contributors to employment, are bearing the brunt of the economic turmoil, struggling to survive and retain their workforce.
To mitigate the impending crisis, governments and central banks worldwide have implemented numerous measures. Fiscal stimulus packages have been rolled out to support businesses and preserve jobs, while central banks have slashed interest rates to inject liquidity into the financial system. Additionally, employment protection schemes and funds have been introduced to safeguard workers and minimize job losses. However, the efficacy of these measures remains uncertain, as the severity and duration of the recession are still unclear.
It is worth noting that the economic downturn and job losses are not solely caused by the pandemic. Many economies were already grappling with structural issues and slowing growth even before the crisis took hold. The pandemic simply acted as a catalyst, rapidly escalating the challenges and straining the global economy further.
The effects of job losses and a recession extend far beyond individuals and businesses. High unemployment rates can lead to decreased consumer spending, further exacerbating economic struggles. With reduced disposable income and fearful economic prospects, people are more likely to cut back on luxury expenditures, resulting in losses across sectors. This ripple effect can create a vicious cycle of declining revenues, leading to further job losses and economic contraction.
To avert such a scenario, governments need to pursue a multi-faceted approach. Ensuring effective public health measures to control the pandemic becomes crucial, allowing for a gradual reopening of the economy and a return to normalcy. Furthermore, governments should focus on creating an environment conducive to business growth and innovation, offering financial support, and simplifying regulatory frameworks. Encouraging entrepreneurship and reskilling individuals for emerging industries can also pave the way for greater job creation.
While the road to recovery may be long and arduous, it is essential to remember that the world has rebounded from previous recessions. By learning from past experiences and implementing thoughtful policies, the potential for job losses can be mitigated, creating opportunities for economic renewal and growth.
In conclusion, with the recession looming, millions of jobs are indeed at risk. The extent of job losses will depend on the duration and severity of the economic downturn, as well as the effectiveness of government interventions. Timely and well-coordinated measures, coupled with global cooperation, can help alleviate the impact on employment and foster a resilient and sustainable recovery.
Thank you for having me on, David, and congratulations on the success of your channel!
Amazing interview! very succinct and straight to the point. I had a blast of an hour!
Another great interview. Thank you for sharing
Great to hear someone share their expertise gained from real education, and not empty opinions from sentiment and celebrity.
Birth rates are too low. We gotta let every 18-30 year old into the country we can for a couple years straight
Automation…
extremely important insight. Very well informed and educated, but also articulated in a manner that is easy to digest. Thank you!!
Definitely on of my favorite interviews. David please invite invite him back in the 4th qtr.
Brilliant young man
To combat the negative effect of inflation, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, since this can help protect your portfolio against inflation. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $550k during recessions
The more speakers like Eric appear on this channel, the higher stocks will go. Bring them on.
Until Fed proves they won't bail put stoxk mlt by printing more money these wall street bad actors will keep the crime going
Need talk that usa depopulated. Hor enough childrenborn in usa. Format 10 years usa lost 1 000 000 population 18 years and younger. Children. And children from this 1 000 000 children. Man does not beed children in usa. One out of three children born on usa not from official father. American family court is main reason.
In your opinion – what will the 6 million new citizens do to the USA's housing market ? ? ?
How has it become a bold statement to say we're in a recession? For many years there was a technical and objective definition for recession. Now it seems to be a subjective definition, '7 indicators'. Recession has always been about GDP. If you want to break it down into reading multiple indicators then it's really something else.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Brilliant guest thoroughly enjoyed the analysis.
Im at fedex freight and its slow even with drivers quitting
Excellent interview. Got to have this guest back again
Meat prices went up for the 4th of July weekend 2023. In California, local meat markets are changing $18 per pound for Carne Ranchera ( bbq meats)
This guest make s lot of sense. I will be following him. Thank you,thank you.
If you are adjusting for inflation with the official numbers then its way off anyway
Eric is so impressive for explaining complex concepts in easy to follow laymen terms. I love this guy. Love his channel. Great segment. Cheers!
OMG will you people stop talkin about recession, you make it sound like it's a big nasty thing. Life goes on everything will be fine. You're making way too much of it
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." – Thomas Jefferson
No recession…we already had it. It was recession lite (Brandon renamed it to "not a recession"). That's why everyone is confused. Companies though will take every opportunity to layoff people out of greed and stock increases under the auspices and guise of AI and the incoming "recession".
We have been experiencing mass layoffs for over 30 years, middle class American earning a living wage, your fired, Vencat, let me show you your new office
Some think “Bidenomics” (Bidenflation) is good. You get what you vote for.
Actually I find this hard to believe….here are several reasons.
Baby boomers are leaving a tremendous hole in the workforce.
Every place I just recently went to in both Canada and America needed help.
Skilled labour is at an all time low.
Jobs may reduce over time but our population is dramatically reducing.
He has some interesting views though I am more concerned about interest rates.
Yep – jobs, inflation, interest rates, the housing market, political decisions and our overextended personal credit will impact America in a major way. The timing is uncertain, but it suggests an upcoming depression.
How far underwater do you need to be to drown??
You ask great questions David. No brainer sub
Can’t wait to watch this, have a few things I have to do before but got this one saved
This guy has a very non biased view we need more people like him reporting this stuff.
It is all based on liquidity and now that they introduced fomo it’s time to drag that liquidity back out just a cycle
How do I look at credit from a chart perspective? Dose anyone have websites or tickets I can look at?
Massive layoffs cannot happen fast enough. We need a massive collapse. Things need reset.
….How old is he? 21? wtf
Eric is one of the most grounded guests you've had on the show. Thanks
You're a very smart young man I wish you one of myy economics professors 40 years ago
More ads please
The other reason the equity market is doing well….Plunge Protection Team is working hard!
The long game. One love❤
It’s a strange economy everyone saying recession coming or are in recession. But if we don’t have correct inflation numbers who knows. And corporations making record profits as real wages down. Sounds like stagflation
Excellent analysis! This dude has clear and concise explanations of the business cycle and the factors that drive the cycle. Very good info! David Lin….you are kicking a$$