Is it Time to Sell? The Fed Predicts a Recession in 2023.

by | Aug 7, 2023 | Recession News | 34 comments

Is it Time to Sell? The Fed Predicts a Recession in 2023.




In his latest speech, Fed Chair Powell has projected that the US will enter a recession in 2023. Is it time to get bearish and sell stocks before the next stock market crash?

Chapters
00:00 | What Did Powell Say?
01:31 | Bullish Or Bearish?
02:11 | Bearish #1: The FED Is Projecting a Recession
03:37 | Bearish #2: Bloomberg Sees a 75% Chance of Recession
04:20 | Bearish #3: Commodities & 10-Year Yield Plunge
05:37 | Bearish #4 Yield Curve Inversion
07:30 | Bearish #5: Bank Failures
09:06 | Bullish #1: Strong Technicals
14:55 | Bullish #2: US Pre-Election Year
15:40 | Bullish #3: Record Cash On The Sidelines
19:21 | Bullish #4: FED Hiking Likely Done
21:01 | Bullish #5: 10-Year Yield
22:12 | The Right Thing To Do…

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The Federal Reserve, commonly referred to as “The Fed,” has made a surprising prediction that has sent shockwaves throughout the financial world. According to their recent assessment, the country could be heading towards a recession in 2023. This projection has investors and economists questioning if now is the time to sell their assets and protect their wealth.

The Fed’s forecast is not taken lightly. As the central banking system of the United States, the institution plays a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and controlling inflation. Their predictions and actions can significantly influence market sentiment and investor behavior.

This gloomy outlook arises from several factors that the Fed highlights as potential triggers for the forthcoming recession. First and foremost is the expected slowdown in economic growth. While the current recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been steady, there are concerns regarding its sustainability, especially considering ongoing uncertainties such as new virus variants, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions.

Another factor contributing to the recession projection is the Federal Reserve’s own actions. The central bank has been implementing expansionary monetary policies to support the economy during the pandemic. This includes providing liquidity by purchasing government bonds and keeping interest rates low. While these policies initially stimulated economic growth, they can potentially create imbalances and lead to excessive risk-taking by investors, ultimately resulting in a market correction and subsequent recession.

Additionally, the country’s mounting debt levels, both public and private, are posing a significant risk to the economy’s stability. The massive stimulus packages and government borrowing to combat the pandemic have increased the national debt to record levels. If left unchecked, this unsustainable debt could have severe consequences in the future, including the possibility of a recession.

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Considering these factors, investors may be tempted to sell their assets and move to safer investments. However, it is important to approach this decision with caution. Market timing is notoriously difficult, even for the most experienced investors. Selling too early may mean missing out on potential market gains, while panic selling during a downturn can lock in losses.

It is crucial to remember that the Fed’s prediction is just that – a prediction. While their projections are often reliable, they are not infallible, and the economy can defy expectations. Moreover, it is worthy of note that a recession is a natural part of the economic cycle. Over time, economies go through periods of expansion and contraction. While recessions can be painful, they are often followed by periods of growth and opportunity.

Therefore, instead of making hasty decisions based on the Fed’s forecast, investors should evaluate their portfolios with a long-term perspective. Diversification, focusing on quality investments, and maintaining a balanced approach to risk management are key principles to withstand economic fluctuations. Building a resilient portfolio that can weather a potential recession is crucial to safeguarding one’s wealth.

While the Fed’s prediction may be unsettling, it should not be the sole driving force behind investment decisions. Seeking professional advice from financial advisors, conducting thorough research, and staying informed about market trends are sound strategies to navigate uncertain times successfully.

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve’s projection of a recession in 2023 has undoubtedly sparked concern among investors. While it is essential to take their forecasts seriously, it is equally important to approach investment decisions with careful consideration and a long-term perspective. Selling assets solely based on this prediction may not be the wisest choice. By maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and seeking professional guidance, investors can navigate potential recessions and position themselves for long-term success.

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34 Comments

  1. Michael Hui

    The market discounted the news

  2. Joseph Chung

    Thank you Adam for speaking the truth! Don't listen to the news or so called experts!

  3. Matin mohammadi

    This recession is a man made recession. Governments purposefully creating chaos (war, financial instability, etc) to push global market to go to recession, because that is the only way to stop China and Russia from ditching Dollar…

  4. Nick Candler

    Some securities are demonstrating a rounded bottom (BABA, AMD, as examples), but these could easily taper off to a bear flag down to a Wyckoff Spring (then back upward and onward?).

  5. C

    Hi Adam, first of all thank you for all the while doing share market knowledge for us , i had some bought some shares after seeing your video and my META sitting almost 100% profit now, will keep hold it all the way since it good FA comoany, do you have view on recent ALIBABA split of business , I have alibaba for long term stock , but not sure if recently move of alibaba will affect good or bad side for long term stock

  6. Patrick Mays

    Good stuff, thank you

  7. The walk 101

    Hello Adam! May I have your opinion of the company MONDE NISSIN. The company loses 13billion last year. Should I sell the stock and re-invest on better company or hold my position? Thanks

  8. Shane M

    You're brilliant Adam, can't believe you dont get more views

  9. Khoi Bui

    As always, very valuable, thank you Adam!

  10. Ferdinand Aditya

    Please breakdown potensial BABA business after news about spliting. Would be so much appreciate !

  11. kenny thompson

    A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

  12. EL INVERSOR SAMARITANO

    Hello Adam
    What do you think about the recent moves of China and the BRICS???

    And Brasil using Yuan as base currency?

    Should we increase China exposure and reduce US?

    What is going on with US world leadership?

    Should we worry about the us stock market?

  13. Andrew Lee

    im still cautious. higher highs and higher lowers might be a red herring. still lower lows and lower highs until it crosses previous high in aug 2022 (resistance). YTD may be just a rebound off the previous lows in oct 2022 (though over a longer breath and broke the downward trend). Currently close to an overbought territory.

  14. PI007

    Great video. Mostly appreciated.

  15. g T

    Adam I would be interested in your opinion on Alibaba business split.

  16. JAYANTA BISWAS JB

    market has no money , fed printed since 08 crash , now how they print to crash their economy by inflation .

  17. Mark Z

    This is the best video I have ever watched on youtube.. Thanks Adam..

  18. Rajat Lakhani

    Love your realistic optimism

  19. Michael Eng

    Thanks Adam , really like your video . Very informative

  20. William Low

    Where is the 200 sma on the previous video you saying

  21. D-STo

    Problem for Banks are That evry time there a Tons of People how Take the Money Instant Form the Bank and put it at Money market funds. The Bank is no More solvent… today you can do it 1 second. (Digital bankrun). So i think they can stop it with nee Money Modell with cbdc…

  22. CesareB

    Using market technicals to back up the bull case just shows how weak the bulls are. The market is completely delusional and always wrong so you can't use that as an indicator of recessions

  23. Pugal Danny

    No other can explain like this much…well done sir

  24. Branson Lee

    So in essence, lean towards bullishness

  25. E J

    It’s already a recession

  26. Damrong Tresukosol

    Wonderful as before
    Your advice were correct most of the time
    I will go in gradually, I distracted by mainstream medias

  27. Luxury Life

    I am so glad I subscribe to your channel. Very well done and so informative. Keep up the great work Adam. And like you said, stay in the market at all times by holding the top 1% of the wonderful businesses in the world!!

  28. J-one Dracula™

    Don't forget we have a high inflation factor which can't be compared like last 3 decades. Our real interest rate is also still negative. You didn't include this insight in your analysis.

  29. Skylar T

    Adam…interest rates near 5% won’t the effects lag 6-9 months before we see it affect companies? Hence show in market price Or am I wrong?

  30. Anthony SUNNY

    Thank you so much for your teachings, i know this will get drowned with other comments but really youre one of the best out there

  31. EyeHateWS

    10-Year yield up 4.78% just today. This has already aged well

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