I get that history shows stocks go up; however, eventually that’s not always going to be the case. I’m not sure if this is the time they don’t go back up, but when you look at the US stock market over the last century it should be no surprise it just kept going back up. The US was a growing country that turned into the lone economic superpower and a second Industrial Revolution happened at the time they were on top. That doesn’t mean that’s what the next 100 years look like, or even the next 30 years looks like. Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but the folks who keep saying, “I’m going to keep buying in because it always goes up” have the exact same mentality as everyone in pre-2007 with housing. I’m definitely in the I’d rather be safe than sorry, and by safe I mean buying all the puts and watching bag holders OD on Copium, all the while I’m getting a double order of tendies.
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There’s two options: economy continues to improve / increase over time OR literally society collapses. Third option, indeterminant stagflation
As long as the stockmarket exist
it will always have corrections and run ups
We are not bankers that need to show returns, we can wait
In the us the market will always recover simply because 401k will always add more money to the stock market. If the market dies the whole economy is destroyed and money doesnt mean anything anymore.
Yes you are being pessimistic. If you think US stock market won’t continue to go up you are basically betting that there will be no human innovation and technological progress moving forward.
The financial system could collapse. Otherwise it is natural it needs to recover. It’s its nature
>eventually that’s not always going to be the case
Why do you think that? Your whole theory is build on a wonky misconception. For that the consumption of good has to reduce massively for one reason or another which leads to permanent decreasing economic activity which leads to us all dying or going back to the stone age. So no stocks only go up isn’t a meme if you believe in progress overall. Doesn’t mean there can’t be a long phase where it sucks to hold stocks. Home prices are a completely different story as they’re the only non productive asset that can create profit over time (rent). Housing is way more fragile overall than the economy.
Unless you’re predicting the end of the stock market then yes it recovers
The more threads people post like this, the closer I know we are to the bottom. Keep ‘‘em coming.
Have home prices gone up since 2007???
Markets have bull and bear cycles. You’re not the first person to think that the market will never recover
I bought a house in 2007 and it’s now worth about 4x what I paid for it.
We were in a bubble so what kind of recovery you are looking for???
It’s return on human capital which will always go up.
As long as the US economy keeps growing it will eventually go up as a whole, I.e not individual stocks.
Japan hasn’t gone back up because they have had a deflationary economy for over two decades.
People have been saying the same for decades. Giants will fall and bigger giants will emerge (Sears -> Walmart -> Amazon -> ??) as long as people are striving to be innovative I don’t see the long term growing trend stopping
Homes will take a short term hit but they aren’t going to see a 08 decline in most areas.
People have a ton of equity
They have low rates
People can’t afford new payments to move
Rents will remain high
Supply will stay low after the initial chasers
Demand will come back if rates fall
Commodities aren’t going to get much cheaper
Cost to build will remain high
We are starting down the road of scarcity.
Take a look at Japan. The housing market there never recovered from their bubble 30 years ago and the Nikkei 225 too might as well be the future of the NASDAQ 100. There are no guarantees ever
I think it’ll always go up. But sectors will have cycles and SPY500 will slowly adapt the winners and ditch the losers within those cycles.
Side note : I’m highly regarded.
If it will not recover…doesn’t that in itself be the end of investing?
The real question to ask is where is that money going to if it leaves the stock market or other tradable liquid assets? Stock market goes all the way down and stays down all pensions go down with it. So you are talking about a situation where if it happened. The chances of you ‘cleaning up’ after waiting for it are well. Idk you do you.
You can make money both ways but there are bear markets every few years where stocks take a beating. Perma-bulls don’t understand what happens when stocks hit a bear market “StOcKs OnLy Go uP” and perma-bears think we’re going back to the barter system every time we get a bear market. This crash will hurt but it’ll be business as usual in a year or so I figure
This is only a rate increase cycle. It us very painful, but nowhere near a collapse
You can’t live in your portfolio and good luck finding a reasonably priced rental in X metropolitan city.
Stocks yield gains, Farms yield gains, mines yield useful Rare Earth elements, rentals can yield gains, homes yield nothing except for potentially alimony payments and spousal support.
Ask my wife’s boyfriend, he will tell you all about it.
It is about population growth. And world population and US population are still growing.
Yes we aee fucked
A robust market has plenty of buyers. Here’s the problem — part of that robust market is dying off — Boomers. They are the largest contingent of the demographic mix. The follow on generations are smaller. That means there are fewer buyers for RE. The RE market will reach a leveling point and then stay there for probably 4 generations.
“when you look at the US stock market over the last century it should be no surprise it just kept going back up. The US was a growing country that turned into the lone economic superpower and a second Industrial Revolution happened at the time they were on top.”Many other countries, like UK, saw the opposite (economic influence and weight in the world went down) yet investors reaped similar high returns. Stock returns aren’t just about the success of a country, it is more about valuations.
New?
I think stocks just Tip-Toed Through The Tulips first.
As ever.
https://youtu.be/EAIshZBkLFU
I mean, the exception to this rule is Japan, but Japan is not remotely close to the size of the US economy. I’m not American, but if stocks in the US crash and never recover, it probably means that there’s an impending global disaster anyway, like the Great Depression. But if you’re particularly worried about the US you could always do the boglehead thing and buy a global fund. Then, if the problem is really just America, it will rebalance into other countries.
I still believe that the market will turn around. When I don’t know, but I do believe that you can get great stocks at a discount. I think this is when selecting stock that can survive and thrive during uncertainty in the market and a recession.
So this mean really looking into the potential of a stock, the Free Cash Flow, Revenue, EBITDA, EPS, liquidity, and capability to pay debts through their financial.
I’ll buy puts for Jan 16th 2123
>have the exact same mentality as everyone in pre-2007 with housing.
And those SOABs that kept their houses because they didn’t buy on margin are still up a ridiculous amount.
A meteor would have to fall from the sky and eliminate a hundred million people in the US for you to lose money buying and holding the S&P 500
Stonks always go up.