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https://preview.redd.it/jvyyv082mp8a1.png?width=1255&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed6166a7334f31829d9d3d8d05788aae71092d30
Saw this chart posted a few weeks ago that breaks down santa rallies and how the markets react… of course this is just a blip of the last 23 years and is not an exhaustive list… however, I would say the biggest thing to note here is that the average return in January when there is no santa rally is -4.38%. That is a pretty bloody January.
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https://preview.redd.it/dz3feon2mp8a1.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=005b556297f6e0d1d2524f3d794de233ec722660
Tomorrow we get another jobs report… I took a quick look at the last 5 reports. Interestingly enough we are averaging a 0.25% open on JOB reporting mornings. Since the December FOMC meeting we have not opened green on a jobs data day and we are actually for those two openings averaging a -1.04% red open…
Some food for thought.
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https://preview.redd.it/59rgci53mp8a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=04c252be922ac84af43f2be93a53927ee44d413b
I mentioned that diamond pattern overnight on SPY and Futures and that futures had broken through support which should have opened up the downside. Well we finally got the downside we were looking for all last week.
This break down today is the first time SPY has closed below 378 since November 9th (the day before November CPI). This also after 8 trading days consolidating between 379.6 and 386.4 the first time we have closed outside of that consolidation area. We also were once again able to wick to and hard reject that daily 8ema.
With us now losing 378 support should now be looking for a retest of support near 374 and an ultimate retest of 370.6. If we lose 370.6 then going into Friday and beginning of 2023 opens up a potential for a drop into the 350s/360s. However, if we can get a hard bounce at 370.6 and break back over 378 resistance then we still could be looking for a 390.1 retest.
Despite how much bearish momentum we have on spy here I do worry as we have been bear trapped time and time again here over the last 2 trading weeks.
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https://preview.redd.it/qsdfb5q3mp8a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=15fb5f8c798727fd082924c044036c4cbb6fe548
Same pattern here on futures which as I mentioned yesterday with that breakdown through the diamond support it should have opened up the downside flush. We did start that leg down today. We also finally closed a candle below that 3845 to 3920 consolidation period. We now are trading at that key pivot point of 3805.
If we lose 3805 then next support is 3750 followed my 3675.
However, 3805 could hold as a big support area for us here. If that support holds then we are going to look for a bigger pop up to retest previous support at 3845. If we can break through that level then we are eyeing once again 3875 and 3910.
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https://preview.redd.it/4f3njr94mp8a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=64c37c4634cd5fff105954b966f8a901d8789049
Tesla the crazy sum betch did it! She put in a green day!
This is the FIRST green day tesla has closed in over 9 trading days (8 red days in a row). This is the biggest close at 3.31% since November 30th which was a 7.67% green day.
Taking a look at Tesla i had mentioned before that there is a clear trend of big red drop -> consolidation (red or green) -> big drop -> consolidation.. etc. etc…
Being that today was not only a gravestone doji but also an inside day… we could actually be looking at a nice setup for a push back down tomorrow.
Looking at this tight red bear channel 117.8 is the resistance for that level. And also yesterdays daily candle resistance level. IF we get another big push up on Tesla that could result in a bigger push down.
Key support is 108.9 -> 103.2
Key resistance is 112.7 -> 117.8
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https://preview.redd.it/91295305mp8a1.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0b7d7273e3917613512612558d888f0afdf607f
Here is another fun little chart on Tesla… Since September 21st… if we look at all the days it closed >-4% you can see there is actually a 60% chance that the next day it opens green… the average green open is 0.55%… This could net a nice 10-20% win on Tesla calls… now mind you these most likely need to be closed immediately at open though as it usually dumps hard…
Interestingly enough though… since September 21st 100% of the time that it has closed greater than -7% down it has opened green the next day…. With an average green open of 1.63%.
Some more food for thought…
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https://preview.redd.it/6crpmd76mp8a1.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=08a3de3497242e7508c5a39b29732ee2ae919cea
Taking a look at the VIX I mentioned how I felt it has been suppressed and despite every effort to breakout is struggling. Well we actually had a really nice breakout triangle formed on the VIX. It managed to hold support and breakout through the daily 8 and daily 20ema. This too was a bullish engulfing candle.
Now the question is what will the VIX do next… today was one of the first days we didn’t see a huge green open on the VIX in a while.. and that actually led to a pretty big drop intraday. The VIX also held its peak going into the end of the day too which has not been the common theme lately.
23.6 is the key breakout level and also the key bear channel resistance level for tomorrow.
**Daily log-**
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https://preview.redd.it/g31br0v6mp8a1.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=d414d4a47f5f86e4674da6f54542f57dc0c0e693
Today actually was a pretty great trading day. Had a really nice swing put win on SPY and then played some nice intraday puts and l2l plays. I actually didn’t trade much after noon today. The issue was that we were so close to that 378 support area that the risk to reward of a huge bounce which we did get was there. However, despite the fact that VOLD fully support that massive run up we had at noon to 1pm I did not believe in the rally and was waiting for the classic 123 rollercoaster down.
However, the issue for me was that after that big pop the technical were just not there to support any more puts for me at least and by time we finally got to a level where they were supported it was power hour which I am not a huge fan of trading.
One interesting thing to note from todays power hour though is that this is the first sell off during power hour (sustained sell off) that we have had since December 9th.
I do wonder with this support breaking and closing below and all these mornings of decently green pre markets fading into open if we are finally about to start our next leg down.
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Opened 20x 360P with 2/17 expiration after we broke 380 today, at this point the market is so anemic I’m just looking to enter some long dated puts and ride this down instead of trying to day trade every dip and pop.
Won’t mind if we go down harder sooner rather than later though
Tesla is cooked
So, you have a YouTube channel?
That’s detailed.
Over? It never began.
There was a Santa rally,?
Is the Santa rally over?!?!?! when the f*** did it actually ever happen this year what the hell is wrong with you people???????
What the hell was that upside wick on the 2:50 – 3:00 SPY candle?
Santa got drunk and fell off the roof. He ain’t coming.
Rally for bond yields
Your TSLA table is a little difficult to read? What are the two columns? Is it every single day since September 21st or just everyday we closed lower than -4% and the open the next day?
After seeing this break down I also agree for a drill. I see 350 by early January and then a bounce into opex maybe
If SPY hit 350 a few months ago but is now trading sideways at 380, then isn’t that indicative of the staying power big money has? That they can keep this going for a lot longer than people think it should?
Uh oh… came here for confirmation bias but  I’m scared
Never was a thing all gobly gook
santa rallies usually happen the week after christmas in bear markets.
Santa Rally hasn’t really started yet – new All time high in 2023;
No Santa rally, just another of the next 10~15 dead cat bounces. Buy the dip, because you want to catch all of the dead cat bounce at the bottom.
Thank you for what you do
Call me the crazy dude but i believe i called the drop last friday to 378 with follow though to 373 eow
Nice post anyway
TL;DR lots of people expecting Santa rally buy tail risk short dated calls, option dealers hedge by dumping futures, market falls
My 2c conspiracy:
We max SPY 389-392 by January 4-5, then keep hitting lows till January 13-14 for 352-357 …. if a pattern opposite of October (2nd half) plays out !
The Satan rally will continue until morale improves
Santa here. Yes, it’s over. All in on puts. Merry Christmas, ho-ho-ho!
I disagree about Tesla, I bought a couple of $115 calls today.
My reasoning
I think that candlestick on the daily is more of a spinning top which indicates a reversal after a strong trend.
RSI is insanely low, yesterday it hit 16 which is the lowest ever in the history of the stock.
Put/call ratio hit above 2 today which means people are extremely bearish. Using the contrarian method this means people are fomoing in and smart money has already made their cash.
It hit 52 week lows back to back, that’s rare and in my experience when that happens there is a small relief rally.
Can you post a link to your discord please…MaggieP.
Can’t be over if it never started
*points at head*
Actually seems like were gonna have a +2% day instead 
Spy is down like 5% AH. You’re damn right the Santa rally is over
There is going to be a bounce, I don’t know when, but we have never drilled down this much without at least a 3% bounce. I guarantee we won’t retest any lows until we have this dead cat bounce.
So TSLA to $400 next year 2023… Got it